Assessing National Health Investors (NHI) Valuation After a 15% Year-To-Date Share Price Rise

National Health Investors (NHI) has quietly outperformed many income names this year, and with its shares up about 15% year to date, investors are asking whether the momentum still matches the fundamentals.

See our latest analysis for National Health Investors.

The steady year to date share price return of around 15% to about $78.82, backed by solid recent revenue and net income growth, suggests momentum is still building rather than fading, and the market is slowly repricing National Health Investors as risk perceptions improve.

If this kind of income focused momentum appeals to you, it is worth exploring other healthcare landlords and operators using our curated screener for healthcare stocks as potential next ideas.

With the shares sitting just below analyst targets and screens flagging a steep intrinsic discount, the key question now is whether NHI still trades below its true value or if the market is already discounting years of future growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 7.3% Undervalued

With the narrative fair value at $85 against a last close of $78.82, the current price sits below what long term assumptions imply.

The analysts have a consensus price target of $83.143 for National Health Investors based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $427.5 million, earnings will come to $187.4 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 29.7x, assuming you use a discount rate of 7.4%.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how modest revenue growth, fatter margins and a richer future earnings multiple add up to a higher fair value than today? The full narrative breaks down the exact trajectory behind that target and the assumptions that could reshape how this healthcare landlord is priced.

Result: Fair Value of $85 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, lingering occupancy softness in the SHOP portfolio, along with heavy reliance on a few key operators, could quickly derail those optimistic growth assumptions.

Find out about the key risks to this National Health Investors narrative.

Build Your Own National Health Investors Narrative

If your view differs from this storyline or you prefer to dig into the numbers yourself, you can build a personalized narrative in just a few minutes using Do it your way.

A great starting point for your National Health Investors research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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