LTC Exits Skilled Nursing and Lowers Guidance Might Change The Case For Investing In LTC Properties (LTC)

• LTC Properties recently reported third quarter 2025 results, highlighting revenue of US$69.29 million, a net loss of US$20 million due to a non-cash write-off, and updated full-year earnings guidance to a lower range.
• The company has completed its exit from skilled nursing, expanding its Senior Housing Operating Portfolio (SHOP) to 21 properties with new operator relationships and projecting SHOP will represent 25% of its portfolio by year-end.
• We'll explore how LTC’s accelerated expansion of its senior housing portfolio and revised earnings outlook could reshape the investment narrative.

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LTC Properties Investment Narrative Recap

To invest in LTC Properties, shareholders need to believe in the company’s senior housing shift and its ability to grow earnings through expanding its SHOP segment, even while navigating challenges such as earnings volatility or higher costs from aggressive acquisition activity. The recent lower full-year earnings guidance reflects the drag from a significant non-cash write-off, which does not materially alter the core catalyst around SHOP growth, but does add near-term pressure to earnings, the biggest risk remains the potential for compressed acquisition yields or rising debt costs as LTC scales up in a competitive market.

Of all the recent announcements, the update to LTC’s full-year earnings guidance stands out as most relevant. The revised guidance, now at a lower range of US$2.45 to US$2.47 per diluted share, echoes the earnings headwinds highlighted in the quarterly results, framing both the urgency and the challenge in executing on accretive growth through SHOP investments. Investors tracking catalysts tied to NOI expansion and margin improvement will find this update central to judging the pace and sustainability of LTC’s portfolio transformation.

Yet despite SHOP’s promise, anyone considering LTC should be aware of the growing risk posed by...

Read the full narrative on LTC Properties (it's free!)

LTC Properties' narrative projects $445.5 million in revenue and $107.5 million in earnings by 2028. This requires 27.8% annual revenue growth and a $24.9 million increase in earnings from the current $82.6 million.

Uncover how LTC Properties' forecasts yield a $37.83 fair value, a 4% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Fair value views from 2 Simply Wall St Community members cluster between US$37.83 and US$85.88, showing a wide divide. Against this backdrop, the most recent earnings and guidance bring the risk of rising acquisition costs and compressed yields into sharper focus for those following LTC’s transformation.

Explore 2 other fair value estimates on LTC Properties - why the stock might be worth over 2x more than the current price!

Build Your Own LTC Properties Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your LTC Properties research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 4 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free LTC Properties research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate LTC Properties' overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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