For many investors, the main point of stock picking is to generate higher returns than the overall market. But if you try your hand at stock picking, your risk returning less than the market. We regret to report that long term JBG SMITH Properties (NYSE:JBGS) shareholders have had that experience, with the share price dropping 41% in three years, versus a market return of about 41%. More recently, the share price has dropped a further 12% in a month. We do note, however, that the broader market is down 13% in that period, and this may have weighed on the share price.
After losing 5.4% this past week, it's worth investigating the company's fundamentals to see what we can infer from past performance.
JBG SMITH Properties isn't currently profitable, so most analysts would look to revenue growth to get an idea of how fast the underlying business is growing. Generally speaking, companies without profits are expected to grow revenue every year, and at a good clip. That's because fast revenue growth can be easily extrapolated to forecast profits, often of considerable size.
Over the last three years, JBG SMITH Properties' revenue dropped 1.6% per year. That's not what investors generally want to see. The stock has disappointed holders over the last three years, falling 12%, annualized. That makes sense given the lack of either profits or revenue growth. Of course, sentiment could become too negative, and the company may actually be making progress to profitability.
You can see below how earnings and revenue have changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).
It's good to see that there was some significant insider buying in the last three months. That's a positive. That said, we think earnings and revenue growth trends are even more important factors to consider. So we recommend checking out this free report showing consensus forecasts
What About Dividends?
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. As it happens, JBG SMITH Properties' TSR for the last 3 years was -36%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!
A Different Perspective
JBG SMITH Properties shareholders are down 19% for the year (even including dividends), falling short of the market return. Meanwhile, the broader market slid about 9.4%, likely weighing on the stock. The three-year loss of 11% per year isn't as bad as the last twelve months, suggesting that the company has not been able to convince the market it has solved its problems. Although Baron Rothschild famously said to "buy when there's blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own", he also focusses on high quality stocks with solid prospects. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. To that end, you should be aware of the 2 warning signs we've spotted with JBG SMITH Properties .
JBG SMITH Properties is not the only stock insiders are buying. So take a peek at this free list of growing companies with insider buying.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.