Duke Realty's (NYSE:DRE) investors will be pleased with their splendid 146% return over the last five years

By
Simply Wall St
Published
March 14, 2022
NYSE:DRE
Source: Shutterstock

It hasn't been the best quarter for Duke Realty Corporation (NYSE:DRE) shareholders, since the share price has fallen 15% in that time. But in stark contrast, the returns over the last half decade have impressed. We think most investors would be happy with the 109% return, over that period. To some, the recent pullback wouldn't be surprising after such a fast rise. Of course, that doesn't necessarily mean it's cheap now.

So let's assess the underlying fundamentals over the last 5 years and see if they've moved in lock-step with shareholder returns.

Check out our latest analysis for Duke Realty

While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

During five years of share price growth, Duke Realty achieved compound earnings per share (EPS) growth of 21% per year. The EPS growth is more impressive than the yearly share price gain of 16% over the same period. Therefore, it seems the market has become relatively pessimistic about the company.

The company's earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

earnings-per-share-growth
NYSE:DRE Earnings Per Share Growth March 14th 2022

We know that Duke Realty has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? This free report showing analyst revenue forecasts should help you figure out if the EPS growth can be sustained.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. We note that for Duke Realty the TSR over the last 5 years was 146%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

It's good to see that Duke Realty has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 34% in the last twelve months. That's including the dividend. That's better than the annualised return of 20% over half a decade, implying that the company is doing better recently. Someone with an optimistic perspective could view the recent improvement in TSR as indicating that the business itself is getting better with time. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Duke Realty better, we need to consider many other factors. To that end, you should learn about the 5 warning signs we've spotted with Duke Realty (including 2 which make us uncomfortable) .

For those who like to find winning investments this free list of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.

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