Declining Stock and Decent Financials: Is The Market Wrong About Duke Realty Corporation (NYSE:DRE)?

By
Simply Wall St
Published
September 21, 2020
NYSE:DRE

It is hard to get excited after looking at Duke Realty's (NYSE:DRE) recent performance, when its stock has declined 4.2% over the past month. However, the company's fundamentals look pretty decent, and long-term financials are usually aligned with future market price movements. In this article, we decided to focus on Duke Realty's ROE.

Return on equity or ROE is a key measure used to assess how efficiently a company's management is utilizing the company's capital. In short, ROE shows the profit each dollar generates with respect to its shareholder investments.

Check out our latest analysis for Duke Realty

How Do You Calculate Return On Equity?

The formula for ROE is:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Duke Realty is:

7.4% = US$376m ÷ US$5.1b (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2020).

The 'return' is the amount earned after tax over the last twelve months. Another way to think of that is that for every $1 worth of equity, the company was able to earn $0.07 in profit.

What Has ROE Got To Do With Earnings Growth?

Thus far, we have learned that ROE measures how efficiently a company is generating its profits. Depending on how much of these profits the company reinvests or "retains", and how effectively it does so, we are then able to assess a company’s earnings growth potential. Assuming all else is equal, companies that have both a higher return on equity and higher profit retention are usually the ones that have a higher growth rate when compared to companies that don't have the same features.

A Side By Side comparison of Duke Realty's Earnings Growth And 7.4% ROE

On the face of it, Duke Realty's ROE is not much to talk about. However, the fact that the company's ROE is higher than the average industry ROE of 5.0%, is definitely interesting. This certainly adds some context to Duke Realty's moderate 16% net income growth seen over the past five years. Bear in mind, the company does have a moderately low ROE. It is just that the industry ROE is lower. So there might well be other reasons for the earnings to grow. E.g the company has a low payout ratio or could belong to a high growth industry.

Next, on comparing Duke Realty's net income growth with the industry, we found that the company's reported growth is similar to the industry average growth rate of 14% in the same period.

past-earnings-growth
NYSE:DRE Past Earnings Growth September 21st 2020

Earnings growth is a huge factor in stock valuation. The investor should try to establish if the expected growth or decline in earnings, whichever the case may be, is priced in. By doing so, they will have an idea if the stock is headed into clear blue waters or if swampy waters await. Is DRE fairly valued? This infographic on the company's intrinsic value has everything you need to know.

Is Duke Realty Efficiently Re-investing Its Profits?

Duke Realty seems to be paying out most of its income as dividends judging by its three-year median payout ratio of 61%, meaning the company retains only 39% of its income. However, this is typical for REITs as they are often required by law to distribute most of their earnings. Despite this, the company's earnings grew moderately as we saw above.

Additionally, Duke Realty has paid dividends over a period of at least ten years which means that the company is pretty serious about sharing its profits with shareholders. Our latest analyst data shows that the future payout ratio of the company over the next three years is expected to be approximately 58%. However, Duke Realty's future ROE is expected to decline to 4.5% despite there being not much change anticipated in the company's payout ratio.

Summary

Overall, we feel that Duke Realty certainly does have some positive factors to consider. Namely, its significant earnings growth, to which its moderate rate of return likely contributed. While the company is paying out most of its earnings as dividends, it has been able to grow its earnings in spite of it, so that's probably a good sign. With that said, the latest industry analyst forecasts reveal that the company's earnings growth is expected to slow down. Are these analysts expectations based on the broad expectations for the industry, or on the company's fundamentals? Click here to be taken to our analyst's forecasts page for the company.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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