CTO Realty Growth (NYSE:CTO) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of CTO when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

CTO ($21.75) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] ($67.03)

CTO fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	3/6
Future Growth	1/6
Past Performance	1/6
Financial Health	2/6
Dividends	4/6

CTO Stock Overview

CTO Realty Growth, Inc. is a Florida-based publicly traded real estate company, which owns income properties comprised of approximately 2.4 million square feet in diversified markets in the United States and an approximately 23.5% interest in Alpine Income Property Trust, Inc., a publicly traded net lease real estate investment trust (NYSE: PINE).

Rewards

Trading at 67.6% below our estimate of its fair value

Revenue is forecast to grow 12.87% per year

Risk Analysis

Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 83.8% per year for the next 3 years

Interest payments are not well covered by earnings

Dividend of 6.87% is not well covered by earnings

Large one-off items impacting financial results

+ 2 more risks

CTO Realty Growth Competitors

Alpine Income Property Trust

NYSE:PINE

US$248.0m

One Liberty Properties

NYSE:OLP

US$555.8m

Lightstone Value Plus REIT V

OTCPK:LVVP

US$166.0m

Armada Hoffler Properties

NYSE:AHH

US$1.2b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for CTO Realty Growth
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	US$21.75
52 Week High	US$22.46
52 Week Low	US$17.43
Beta	0.57
1 Month Change	5.94%
3 Month Change	7.71%
1 Year Change	19.31%
3 Year Change	7.32%
5 Year Change	22.63%
Change since IPO	232.48%

Recent News & Updates

Jul 31

Earnings Update: CTO Realty Growth, Inc. (NYSE:CTO) Just Reported Its Second-Quarter Results And Analysts Are Updating Their Forecasts

The second-quarter results for CTO Realty Growth, Inc. ( NYSE:CTO ) were released last week, making it a good time to...

Jul 28

CTO Realty Growth FFO of $1.48 beats by $1.10, revenue of $19.46M beats by $2.29M

CTO Realty Growth press release (NYSE:CTO): Q2 AFFO of $1.48 beats by $1.10. Revenue of $19.46M (+36.3% Y/Y) beats by $2.29M.

Shareholder Returns

	CTO	US REITs	US Market
7D	1.7%	3.1%	1.2%
1Y	19.3%	-4.3%	-11.6%

Return vs Industry: CTO exceeded the US REITs industry which returned -5% over the past year.

Return vs Market: CTO exceeded the US Market which returned -13.5% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is CTO's price volatile compared to industry and market?
CTO volatility
CTO Average Weekly Movement	3.7%
REITs Industry Average Movement	4.3%
Market Average Movement	7.9%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market	17.0%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market	3.2%

Stable Share Price: CTO is less volatile than 75% of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 4% a week.

Volatility Over Time: CTO's weekly volatility (4%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1902	19	John Albright	https://ctorealtygrowth.com

CTO Realty Growth Fundamentals Summary

How do CTO Realty Growth's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
CTO fundamental statistics
Market Cap	US$398.40m
Earnings (TTM)	US$22.58m
Revenue (TTM)	US$77.95m

17.6x

P/E Ratio

5.1x

P/S Ratio

Is CTO overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
CTO income statement (TTM)
Revenue	US$77.95m
Cost of Revenue	US$25.22m
Gross Profit	US$52.73m
Other Expenses	US$30.15m
Earnings	US$22.58m

Last Reported Earnings

Jun 30, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	1.23
Gross Margin	67.65%
Net Profit Margin	28.97%
Debt/Equity Ratio	79.5%

How did CTO perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

6.9%

Current Dividend Yield

117%

Payout Ratio

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is CTO undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for CTO?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for CTO. This is calculated by dividing CTO's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is CTO's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	US$398.40m

CTO key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	9.3x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	16.8x
PEG Ratio	-0.2x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does CTO's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

CTO PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for CTO vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	14.1x
PINE Alpine Income Property Trust	8.9x	-61.0%	US$248.0m
OLP One Liberty Properties	14.9x	-59.5%	US$555.8m
LVVP Lightstone Value Plus REIT V	3.4x	n/a	US$166.0m
AHH Armada Hoffler Properties	29.4x	-27.1%	US$1.2b
CTO CTO Realty Growth	17.6x	-83.8%	US$398.4m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: CTO is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.6x) compared to the peer average (14.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does CTO's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US REITs Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: CTO is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.6x) compared to the US REITs industry average (31.2x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is CTO's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

CTO PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	17.6x
Fair PE Ratio	7x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: CTO is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of CTO when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: CTO ($21.75) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($67.03)

Significantly Below Fair Value: CTO is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Future Growth

How is CTO Realty Growth forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 5 analysts?

Future Growth Score

1/6

Future Growth Score 1/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

-83.8%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: CTO's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-83.8% per year).

Earnings vs Market: CTO's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-83.8% per year).

High Growth Earnings: CTO's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: CTO's revenue (12.9% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (7.9% per year).

High Growth Revenue: CTO's revenue (12.9% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: Insufficient data to determine if CTO's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time

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Past Performance

How has CTO Realty Growth performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

1/6

Past Performance Score 1/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

16.6%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: CTO has a large one-off gain of $16.5M impacting its June 30 2022 financial results.

Growing Profit Margin: CTO's current net profit margins (29%) are lower than last year .

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: CTO's earnings have grown by 16.6% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: CTO's has had negative earnings growth over the past year, so it can't be compared to its 5-year average.

Earnings vs Industry: CTO had negative earnings growth (-72.5%) over the past year, making it difficult to compare to the REITs industry average (48.7%).

Return on Equity

High ROE: CTO's Return on Equity (6.3%) is considered low.

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Financial Health

How is CTO Realty Growth's financial position?

Financial Health Score

2/6

Financial Health Score 2/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: CTO's short term assets ($66.0M) exceed its short term liabilities ($5.5M).

Long Term Liabilities: CTO's short term assets ($66.0M) do not cover its long term liabilities ($365.4M).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: CTO's net debt to equity ratio (75.1%) is considered high.

Reducing Debt: CTO's debt to equity ratio has reduced from 105.9% to 79.5% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: CTO's debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (9.2%).

Interest Coverage: CTO's interest payments on its debt are not well covered by EBIT (3x coverage).

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is CTO Realty Growth current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

4/6

Dividend Score 4/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Cash Flow Coverage

6.87%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: CTO's dividend (6.87%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the US market (1.51%).

High Dividend: CTO's dividend (6.87%) is in the top 25% of dividend payers in the US market (4.09%)

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: CTO's dividend payments have been volatile in the past 10 years.

Growing Dividend: CTO's dividend payments have increased over the past 10 years.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its high payout ratio (117.3%), CTO's dividend payments are not well covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: At its current cash payout ratio (86.3%), CTO's dividend payments are covered by cash flows.

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Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

7.8yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

John Albright (56 yo)

11yrs

Tenure

US$2,357,788

Compensation

Mr. John P. Albright serves as President, Chief Executive Officer and Director at Alpine Income Property Trust, Inc. since its formation in August 2019. He has served as a director of CTO since 2012 and ch...

CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: John's total compensation ($USD2.36M) is about average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD2.68M).

Compensation vs Earnings: John's compensation has increased by more than 20% whilst company earnings have fallen more than 20% in the past year.

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: CTO's management team is seasoned and experienced (7.8 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: CTO's board of directors are considered experienced (4.3 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: CTO insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have been diluted in the past year, with total shares outstanding growing by 2.5%.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/08/10 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/08/10 00:00
Earnings	2022/06/30
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31