Is Americold Realty Trust an Opportunity After a 49.5% Slide in 2025?

• Wondering if Americold Realty Trust could be a bargain right now? Let’s dive into what the numbers and market sentiment might really mean for investors on the lookout for value.
• The stock has seen some dramatic moves lately, posting a 3.9% gain over the last week. However, it is still down a hefty 14.0% in the past month and a staggering 49.5% year-to-date.
• Much of this volatility can be traced to shifts in the broader real estate sector, evolving investor risk perceptions, and recent deal activity within the cold storage market. Headlines around infrastructure investments and strategic partnerships have added new layers of context to Americold’s recent price action, keeping it in focus for many market-watchers.
• On our in-depth valuation checks, Americold Realty Trust scores 5 out of 6. You can see why by reviewing the details in our valuation summary. We are about to break down the different ways to value the stock, and at the end of this article we will introduce a perspective you might not have considered.

Find out why Americold Realty Trust's -52.3% return over the last year is lagging behind its peers.

Approach 1: Americold Realty Trust Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model works by forecasting Americold Realty Trust's future adjusted funds from operations and then discounting those projected values back to what they're worth today. This helps estimate the stock’s true underlying value based on the company’s expected ability to generate cash.

Currently, Americold Realty Trust reports Free Cash Flow (FCF) of $420.4 million. Analysts forecast steady growth, with FCF projected to reach $494.6 million by 2029. Beyond the first five years, these projections are extended further using Simply Wall St’s own estimates, which anticipate continued growth into the next decade.

According to this DCF analysis, the intrinsic fair value of Americold Realty Trust shares stands at $19.90. With the stock’s current market price reflecting a 45.8% discount to this fair value, the implication is that the share is substantially undervalued.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Americold Realty Trust is undervalued by 45.8%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 922 more undervalued stocks based on cash flows.

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Americold Realty Trust.

Approach 2: Americold Realty Trust Price vs Sales

The Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio is a reliable valuation metric for companies like Americold Realty Trust, especially in real estate investment sectors where profitability can be affected by large non-cash charges or fluctuations in earnings. This ratio evaluates the market's valuation of the company relative to its actual sales, providing a clearer picture for businesses with steady revenue streams.

The "normal" or "fair" P/S ratio for a given company depends on several factors, including expectations for future growth, the stability of revenue, and the perceived risks facing the business. Higher growth and lower risk profiles typically justify a higher multiple, while the opposite would drive it lower.

Currently, Americold Realty Trust's P/S ratio stands at 1.18x, which is far below both the industry average for Industrial REITs at 8.99x and its peer set at 6.96x. At first glance, this disparity might suggest the stock is trading at a discount compared to its sector.

However, Simply Wall St's proprietary "Fair Ratio" offers a more tailored view by factoring in Americold's specific growth prospects, profit margins, market capitalization, and risk profile, rather than relying solely on broad industry trends. For Americold, the Fair Ratio is 1.97x, reflecting what is considered a more appropriate benchmark for fair value given the company’s unique operating context.

Comparing the current P/S ratio of 1.18x with the Fair Ratio of 1.97x indicates that Americold Realty Trust is priced well below what would be considered fair, reinforcing the view that the stock may currently offer value.

Result: UNDERVALUED

PS ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover 1440 companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.

Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Americold Realty Trust Narrative

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let's introduce you to Narratives. A Narrative is your personal story or perspective about Americold Realty Trust, summarizing your assumptions for its future, such as where revenue, margins, and fair value are heading, and connecting those beliefs with a tailored financial forecast. By using Narratives, you can clearly link the company's story, market context, and business catalysts to a specific fair value. This approach helps you see whether the current share price represents an opportunity or a risk.

Narratives are simple and accessible tools on Simply Wall St’s Community page. They are used by millions of investors to compare ideas and perspectives. When you create a Narrative, the platform tracks your assumptions, compares your fair value to today's share price, and dynamically updates your view when breaking news or earnings arrive. This saves you the effort of always recalculating or chasing headlines.

For example, one Americold Realty Trust Narrative might forecast a strong recovery and set a higher fair value of $27.00, based on expectations for demand normalization and margin expansion. Another Narrative might take a more cautious view, focusing on persistent headwinds and targeting a fair value as low as $15.00. No matter your viewpoint, Narratives help you make more informed, personalized investment decisions by connecting your unique outlook directly to the numbers that matter most.

Do you think there's more to the story for Americold Realty Trust? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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