Long term investing works well, but it doesn't always work for each individual stock. We really hate to see fellow investors lose their hard-earned money. Anyone who held vTv Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ:VTVT) for five years would be nursing their metaphorical wounds since the share price dropped 76% in that time. We also note that the stock has performed poorly over the last year, with the share price down 29%. Furthermore, it's down 23% in about a quarter. That's not much fun for holders. This could be related to the recent financial results - you can catch up on the most recent data by reading our company report.
Given the past week has been tough on shareholders, let's investigate the fundamentals and see what we can learn.
vTv Therapeutics wasn't profitable in the last twelve months, it is unlikely we'll see a strong correlation between its share price and its earnings per share (EPS). Arguably revenue is our next best option. Generally speaking, companies without profits are expected to grow revenue every year, and at a good clip. Some companies are willing to postpone profitability to grow revenue faster, but in that case one does expect good top-line growth.
In the last half decade, vTv Therapeutics saw its revenue increase by 28% per year. That's well above most other pre-profit companies. So on the face of it we're really surprised to see the share price has averaged a fall of 12% each year, in the same time period. It could be that the stock was over-hyped before. We'd recommend carefully checking for indications of future growth - and balance sheet threats - before considering a purchase.
You can see below how earnings and revenue have changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).
We consider it positive that insiders have made significant purchases in the last year. Even so, future earnings will be far more important to whether current shareholders make money. So it makes a lot of sense to check out what analysts think vTv Therapeutics will earn in the future (free profit forecasts).
A Different Perspective
vTv Therapeutics shareholders are down 29% for the year, but the market itself is up 28%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 12% per year over five years. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Take risks, for example - vTv Therapeutics has 2 warning signs we think you should be aware of.
vTv Therapeutics is not the only stock that insiders are buying. For those who like to find winning investments this free list of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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