How Should You Think About TherapeuticsMD Inc’s (NASDAQ:TXMD) Risks?

If you are a shareholder in TherapeuticsMD Inc’s (NASDAQ:TXMD), or are thinking about investing in the company, knowing how it contributes to the risk and reward profile of your portfolio is important. Broadly speaking, there are two types of risk you should consider when investing in stocks such as TXMD. The first type is company-specific risk, which can be diversified away by investing in other companies to reduce exposure to one particular stock. The other type of risk, which cannot be diversified away, is market risk. Every stock in the market is exposed to this risk, which arises from macroeconomic factors such as economic growth and geo-political tussles just to name a few.

Not every stock is exposed to the same level of market risk. The most widely used metric to quantify a stock’s market risk is beta, and the market as a whole represents a beta of one. Any stock with a beta of greater than one is considered more volatile than the market, and those with a beta less than one is generally less volatile.

Check out our latest analysis for TherapeuticsMD

What is TXMD’s market risk?

TherapeuticsMD’s five-year beta of 1.52 means that the company’s value will swing up by more than the market during prosperous times, but also drop down by more in times of downturns. This level of volatility indicates bigger risk for investors who passively invest in the stock market index. Based on this beta value, TXMD may be a stock for investors with a portfolio mainly made up of low-beta stocks. This is because during times of bullish sentiment, you can reap more of the upside with high-beta stocks compared to muted movements of low-beta holdings.

NasdaqGS:TXMD Income Statement Export August 7th 18
NasdaqGS:TXMD Income Statement Export August 7th 18

Could TXMD’s size and industry cause it to be more volatile?

A market capitalisation of US$1.22b puts TXMD in the category of small-cap stocks, which tends to possess higher beta than larger companies. But, TXMD’s industry, pharmaceuticals, is considered to be defensive, which means it is less volatile than the market over the economic cycle. Therefore, investors can expect a high beta associated with the size of TXMD, but a lower beta given the nature of the industry it operates in. It seems as though there is an inconsistency in risks from TXMD’s size and industry. There may be a more fundamental driver which can explain this inconsistency, which we will examine below.

How TXMD’s assets could affect its beta

An asset-heavy company tends to have a higher beta because the risk associated with running fixed assets during a downturn is highly expensive. I examine TXMD’s ratio of fixed assets to total assets to see whether the company is highly exposed to the risk of this type of constraint. Given that fixed assets make up less than a third of the company’s total assets, TXMD doesn’t rely heavily upon these expensive, inflexible assets to run its business during downturns. Thus, we can expect TXMD to be more stable in the face of market movements, relative to its peers of similar size but with a higher portion of fixed assets on their books. This outcome contradicts TXMD’s current beta value which indicates an above-average volatility.

What this means for you:

You could benefit from higher returns during times of economic growth by holding onto TXMD. Its low fixed cost also means that, in terms of operating leverage, it is relatively flexible during times of economic downturns. What I have not mentioned in my article here are important company-specific fundamentals such as TherapeuticsMD’s financial health and performance track record. I highly recommend you to complete your research by taking a look at the following:

  1. Future Outlook: What are well-informed industry analysts predicting for TXMD’s future growth? Take a look at our free research report of analyst consensus for TXMD’s outlook.
  2. Past Track Record: Has TXMD been consistently performing well irrespective of the ups and downs in the market? Go into more detail in the past performance analysis and take a look at the free visual representations of TXMD’s historicals for more clarity.
  3. Other High-Performing Stocks: Are there other stocks that provide better prospects with proven track records? Explore our free list of these great stocks here.

To help readers see past the short term volatility of the financial market, we aim to bring you a long-term focused research analysis purely driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis does not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements.

The author is an independent contributor and at the time of publication had no position in the stocks mentioned. For errors that warrant correction please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com.