Tilray (TLRY) Reverse Split Triggers Volatility: What the New Capital Structure Means for Valuation

Tilray Brands (TLRY) just put through a one-for-10 reverse stock split, lifting its share price while shrinking the float, a classic move to stay compliant and court bigger investors.

See our latest analysis for Tilray Brands.

That move lands in a rough stretch for holders, with a 30 day share price return of about negative 43 percent and a one year total shareholder return near negative 46 percent. This suggests sentiment and momentum are still fading despite decent valuation talk.

If Tilray’s volatility has you rethinking concentration risk, this could be a good moment to explore fast growing stocks with high insider ownership for other interesting ideas beyond cannabis.

With shares down sharply despite a cleaner capital structure and analysts still seeing upside to their price targets, is Tilray now a misunderstood value play or is the market already discounting all the future growth it can deliver?

Most Popular Narrative: 295.9% Overvalued

Compared to Tilray Brands’ last close at $7.06, the most followed narrative anchors fair value far lower, setting up a sharp valuation gap to unpack.

Tilray's international cannabis business is achieving rapid organic growth, with European cannabis revenue up 112% YoY (excluding Australia) and significant share gains in Germany due to regulatory tailwinds, broader medical adoption, and expanding legalization, supporting a long runway for top-line revenue acceleration as global cannabis markets open.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to know how modest revenue growth, a major margin reset, and a re-rated earnings multiple can still imply such a steep downside? The narrative’s full math might surprise you.

Result: Fair Value of $1.78 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, regulatory setbacks in key markets and Tilray’s persistent operating losses could quickly unravel the bullish narrative and reset expectations.

Find out about the key risks to this Tilray Brands narrative.

Another View: Market Multiple Says Cheap, Not Rich

While the narrative model flags Tilray as almost 300 percent overvalued, the simple price to sales lens tells a very different story. At roughly 1 times sales versus 4 times for US pharma peers and a 2.1 times fair ratio, the stock screens as inexpensive. This suggests the market may already be heavily pricing in execution and solvency risk.

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own Tilray Brands Narrative

If you see the story differently or want to dig into the numbers yourself, you can build a complete view in minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Tilray Brands research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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