Stock Analysis

We're Hopeful That Stoke Therapeutics (NASDAQ:STOK) Will Use Its Cash Wisely

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NasdaqGS:STOK
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Just because a business does not make any money, does not mean that the stock will go down. For example, although software-as-a-service business Salesforce.com lost money for years while it grew recurring revenue, if you held shares since 2005, you'd have done very well indeed. But while history lauds those rare successes, those that fail are often forgotten; who remembers Pets.com?

Given this risk, we thought we'd take a look at whether Stoke Therapeutics (NASDAQ:STOK) shareholders should be worried about its cash burn. In this article, we define cash burn as its annual (negative) free cash flow, which is the amount of money a company spends each year to fund its growth. Let's start with an examination of the business' cash, relative to its cash burn.

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When Might Stoke Therapeutics Run Out Of Money?

A company's cash runway is calculated by dividing its cash hoard by its cash burn. In September 2020, Stoke Therapeutics had US$191m in cash, and was debt-free. Looking at the last year, the company burnt through US$43m. So it had a cash runway of about 4.5 years from September 2020. There's no doubt that this is a reassuringly long runway. Depicted below, you can see how its cash holdings have changed over time.

debt-equity-history-analysis
NasdaqGS:STOK Debt to Equity History November 18th 2020

How Is Stoke Therapeutics' Cash Burn Changing Over Time?

Because Stoke Therapeutics isn't currently generating revenue, we consider it an early-stage business. Nonetheless, we can still examine its cash burn trajectory as part of our assessment of its cash burn situation. Over the last year its cash burn actually increased by a very significant 68%. While this spending increase is no doubt intended to drive growth, if the trend continues the company's cash runway will shrink very quickly. Clearly, however, the crucial factor is whether the company will grow its business going forward. So you might want to take a peek at how much the company is expected to grow in the next few years.

How Easily Can Stoke Therapeutics Raise Cash?

While Stoke Therapeutics does have a solid cash runway, its cash burn trajectory may have some shareholders thinking ahead to when the company may need to raise more cash. Generally speaking, a listed business can raise new cash through issuing shares or taking on debt. Many companies end up issuing new shares to fund future growth. By looking at a company's cash burn relative to its market capitalisation, we gain insight on how much shareholders would be diluted if the company needed to raise enough cash to cover another year's cash burn.

Since it has a market capitalisation of US$1.5b, Stoke Therapeutics' US$43m in cash burn equates to about 2.9% of its market value. That means it could easily issue a few shares to fund more growth, and might well be in a position to borrow cheaply.

How Risky Is Stoke Therapeutics' Cash Burn Situation?

As you can probably tell by now, we're not too worried about Stoke Therapeutics' cash burn. In particular, we think its cash runway stands out as evidence that the company is well on top of its spending. Although its increasing cash burn does give us reason for pause, the other metrics we discussed in this article form a positive picture overall. After taking into account the various metrics mentioned in this report, we're pretty comfortable with how the company is spending its cash, as it seems on track to meet its needs over the medium term. Separately, we looked at different risks affecting the company and spotted 4 warning signs for Stoke Therapeutics (of which 1 is concerning!) you should know about.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies, and this list of stocks growth stocks (according to analyst forecasts)

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What are the risks and opportunities for Stoke Therapeutics?

Stoke Therapeutics, Inc., an early-stage biopharmaceutical company, develops novel antisense oligonucleotide (ASO) medicines to treat the underlying causes of severe genetic diseases in the United States.

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Rewards

  • Revenue is forecast to grow 53.49% per year

Risks

  • Shareholders have been diluted in the past year

  • Volatile share price over the past 3 months

  • Currently unprofitable and not forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years

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