Stock Analysis

Getting In Cheap On SIGA Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ:SIGA) Is Unlikely

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NasdaqGM:SIGA
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With a median price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of close to 19x in the United States, you could be forgiven for feeling indifferent about SIGA Technologies, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:SIGA) P/E ratio of 17.7x. While this might not raise any eyebrows, if the P/E ratio is not justified investors could be missing out on a potential opportunity or ignoring looming disappointment.

For example, consider that SIGA Technologies' financial performance has been poor lately as it's earnings have been in decline. It might be that many expect the company to put the disappointing earnings performance behind them over the coming period, which has kept the P/E from falling. If not, then existing shareholders may be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

Check out our latest analysis for SIGA Technologies

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NasdaqGM:SIGA Price Based on Past Earnings December 4th 2020
Want the full picture on earnings, revenue and cash flow for the company? Then our free report on SIGA Technologies will help you shine a light on its historical performance.

How Is SIGA Technologies' Growth Trending?

The only time you'd be comfortable seeing a P/E like SIGA Technologies' is when the company's growth is tracking the market closely.

Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 35%. This has erased any of its gains during the last three years, with practically no change in EPS being achieved in total. So it appears to us that the company has had a mixed result in terms of growing earnings over that time.

Comparing that to the market, which is predicted to deliver 13% growth in the next 12 months, the company's momentum is weaker based on recent medium-term annualised earnings results.

In light of this, it's curious that SIGA Technologies' P/E sits in line with the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly limited recent growth rates and are willing to pay up for exposure to the stock. They may be setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with recent growth rates.

The Bottom Line On SIGA Technologies' P/E

Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-earnings ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.

We've established that SIGA Technologies currently trades on a higher than expected P/E since its recent three-year growth is lower than the wider market forecast. When we see weak earnings with slower than market growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the moderate P/E lower. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at risk and potential investors in danger of paying an unnecessary premium.

And what about other risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for SIGA Technologies (of which 1 shouldn't be ignored!) you should know about.

You might be able to find a better investment than SIGA Technologies. If you want a selection of possible candidates, check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a P/E below 20x (but have proven they can grow earnings).

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What are the risks and opportunities for SIGA Technologies?

SIGA Technologies, Inc., a commercial-stage pharmaceutical company, focuses on the health security and infectious disease markets in the United States.

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Rewards

  • Trading at 81.7% below our estimate of its fair value

  • Earnings grew by 557.9% over the past year

Risks

  • Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 20.3% per year for the next 3 years

  • High level of non-cash earnings

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