Orchard Therapeutics plc (NASDAQ:ORTX) Just Released Its Third-Quarter Results And Analysts Are Updating Their Estimates

Simply Wall St
November 05, 2020
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Orchard Therapeutics plc (NASDAQ:ORTX) defied analyst predictions to release its quarterly results, which were ahead of market expectations. The results were impressive, with revenues of US$2.0m exceeding analyst forecasts by 1,423%, and statutory losses of US$0.20 were likewise much smaller than the analysts had forecast. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Orchard Therapeutics

NasdaqGS:ORTX Earnings and Revenue Growth November 6th 2020

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Orchard Therapeutics' seven analysts is for revenues of US$7.89m in 2021, which would reflect a substantial 147% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Losses are forecast to narrow 8.3% to US$1.52 per share. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$9.02m and losses of US$1.79 per share in 2021. We can see there's definitely been a change in sentiment in this update, with the analysts administering a meaningful downgrade to next year's revenue estimates, while at the same time reducing their loss estimates.

There was no major change to the US$14.25average price target, suggesting that the adjustments to revenue and earnings are not expected to have a long-term impact on the business. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Orchard Therapeutics analyst has a price target of US$20.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$9.00. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's clear from the latest estimates that Orchard Therapeutics' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 147% revenue growth noticeably faster than its historical growth of 22% over the past year. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 20% next year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Orchard Therapeutics to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, but the latest forecasts still imply the business will grow faster than the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. The consensus price target held steady at US$14.25, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Orchard Therapeutics going out to 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Before you take the next step you should know about the 3 warning signs for Orchard Therapeutics that we have uncovered.

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