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OCUL

Ocular Therapeutix NasdaqGM:OCUL Stock Report

Last Price

US$5.29

Market Cap

US$407.2m

7D

-9.9%

1Y

-49.6%

Updated

25 Sep, 2022

Data

Company Financials +
OCUL fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation3/6
Future Growth2/6
Past Performance0/6
Financial Health4/6
Dividends0/6

OCUL Stock Overview

Ocular Therapeutix, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the formulation, development, and commercialization of therapies for diseases and conditions of the eye using its bioresorbable hydrogel-based formulation technology.

Ocular Therapeutix Competitors

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Ocular Therapeutix
Historical stock prices
Current Share PriceUS$5.29
52 Week HighUS$12.50
52 Week LowUS$2.91
Beta1.44
1 Month Change4.13%
3 Month Change28.71%
1 Year Change-49.57%
3 Year Change63.78%
5 Year Change-14.40%
Change since IPO-59.77%

Recent News & Updates

Sep 09
Despite Lacking Profits Ocular Therapeutix (NASDAQ:OCUL) Seems To Be On Top Of Its Debt

Despite Lacking Profits Ocular Therapeutix (NASDAQ:OCUL) Seems To Be On Top Of Its Debt

Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of...

Aug 15

Ocular Therapeutix: Trading Ahead Of An Underappreciated Catalyst Event

The market doesn't fully appreciate that OCUL was granted a late-breaking slot at the September 30 AAO conference to present its OTX-TKI Phase 1 data in wet AMD. I review wet AMD, the current standard of care and OCUL's ambitions to treat the disease. I also update the DEXTENZA sales uptake as well as discussing important risks prospective investors should be aware of. Recently, the stock price of Ocular Therapeutix (OCUL) has risen due to the potential catalyst event of the company being awarded a late-breaking slot at the American Academy of Ophthalmology to discuss recent data from its Phase 1 trial of OTX-TKI in wet AMD. This article is a follow up to my existing coverage of the company, but since I haven't previously discussed OTX-TKI in any detail, today I'd like to provide some background on wet AMD in general, the current standard of care, and what OCUL hopes to be able to bring to the table. I'll then update DEXTENZA sales data (and my projections for the future), and then will close with a look at the company's cash runway and the biggest risks that I see for current shareholders. bigcharts Wet AMD The macular society has a succinct definition of wet AMD (note that wet AMD is a progression from the less serious condition of dry AMD): Wet age-related macular degeneration ((AMD)) develops when abnormal blood vessels grow into the macula. These leak blood or fluid which leads to scarring of the macula and rapid loss of central vision. Wet AMD can develop very suddenly, but it can now be treated if caught quickly. Fast referral to a hospital specialist is essential. And Brightfocus highlights both the seriousness and societal cost of wet AMD and AMD generally: Wet macular degeneration accounts for approximately 10 percent of cases, but results in 90 percent of legal blindness. It is considered advanced macular degeneration (there is no early or intermediate stage of wet macular degeneration). Wet macular degeneration is always preceded by the dry form of the disease. [...] Estimates of the global cost of visual impairment due to age-related macular degeneration is $343 billion, including $255 billion in direct health care costs. Genentech estimates that in 2011 there were about 1.7M cases of wet AMD in the US and that 200,000 new cases are diagnosed annually in North America. It further estimates that by 2020 there would be nearly 3M cases in the US. Research and Markets estimates that there are about 4.4M wet AMD cases spread across the US, EU5 and Japan in 2020. Thus, any way you look at it, wet AMD is a prevalent and potentially devastating disease, so treatment is a must. Which brings us to the current SOC. Standard of Care This NCBI article does a great job of not only explaining the current standard of care (SOC) for wet AMD, it also discusses some of the drawbacks, which, as we'll see below, is where OCUL is hoping to contribute (with my emphasis). Research has identified the vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) as an important pathophysiological component in neovascular AMD and its intraocular inhibition as one of the most efficient therapies in medicine. The introduction of anti-VEGF as a standard treatment in wet AMD has led to a great improvement in the prognosis of patients, allowing recovery and maintenance of visual function in the vast majority of cases. However, the therapeutic benefit is accompanied by a difficulty in maintaining the treatment schedule due to the increase in the amount of patients, stress of monthly assessments, as well as the associated economic burden. Therefore, treatment strategies have evolved from fixed monthly dosing, to individualized regimens, aiming for comparable results, with fewer injections. One such protocol is called “pro re nata”, or “treat and observe”. Patients are given a loading dose of 3 monthly injections, followed by an as-needed decision to treat, based on the worsening of visual acuity, clinical evidence of the disease activity on fundoscopy, or OCT evidence of retinal thickening in the presence of intra or subretinal fluid. A different regimen is called “treat and extend”, in which the interval between injections is gradually increased, once the disease stabilization is achieved. This article also discusses the idea of "treat and extend", but it correctly notes that FDA approvals have generally been based on fixed dose regimens, so by implication, doctors are taking some personal risks in essentially going off of protocol when they engage in "treat and extend" (again with my emphasis). In wet age-related macular degeneration, the gold standard treatment is intravitreal VEGF inhibitors. Many of these medicines were FDA approved based on positive data from phase 3 clinical trials. In these pivotal clinical trials, many of these medicines were given at fixed dosing regimens, and that provides us with level 1 evidence for the treatment of these diseases. In clinical practice, retina specialists often individualize the therapy for each patient. Because of this individualized and personalized therapy, sometimes patients are on different dosing regimens. The most popular dosing regimen in the United States for the treatment of wet age-related macular degeneration is a treat-and-extend regimen, which allows patients to potentially have fewer injections but with still the same efficacious results. OTX-TKI for Wet AMD OCUL early stage candidate treatment is an intravitreal implant with a hydrogel that's intended to deliver a tyrosine kinase inhibitor, Axitinib, whose primary mechanism of action (MOA) is thought to be VEGF inhibition. The hope is that the hydrogel will deliver the drug for at least 6 months which would be a huge improvement over the FDA trials in which current drugs have been approved based on regular 1 or 2 month injections. This slide from the most recent investor presentation gives a basic overview of the approach: ocutx.gcs-web.com/static-files/9cbd8ae8-593e-4091-8d30-fed0534153e4 Phase 1 Trials OTX-TKI is currently in two phase 1 trials, the earlier one, which is being conducted in Australia, is intended to see how well the drug can clear fluid from the eye. The more recent trial is being conducted in the US and is intended to answer the question "how long can OTX-TKI keep a dry eye dry without retreatment?" This slide does a nice job of contrasting the two trials (while also highlighting the design of the US trial): investor presentation The first trial had several cohorts testing various doses and combinations. Among other things, it showed that across the various treatment regimes, >50% of patients achieved durability of better than 6 months. Investor Presentation This result is part of what gives management (and investors) confidence that the data that will be shared at the late breaking session in September will be interesting/positive. In particular, this optimism is based on the company believing that keeping a dry eye dry is much easier than removing existing fluid from the eye and then keeping it dry. This is the key to the catalyst trade and is probably under-appreciated by the market at large.

Shareholder Returns

OCULUS PharmaceuticalsUS Market
7D-9.9%-1.9%-5.2%
1Y-49.6%2.9%-23.0%

Return vs Industry: OCUL underperformed the US Pharmaceuticals industry which returned 2.9% over the past year.

Return vs Market: OCUL underperformed the US Market which returned -23% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is OCUL's price volatile compared to industry and market?
OCUL volatility
OCUL Average Weekly Movement10.1%
Pharmaceuticals Industry Average Movement11.6%
Market Average Movement6.9%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market15.8%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market2.8%

Stable Share Price: OCUL is not significantly more volatile than the rest of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 10% a week.

Volatility Over Time: OCUL's weekly volatility (10%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

FoundedEmployeesCEOWebsite
2006228Antony Mattessichhttps://www.ocutx.com

Ocular Therapeutix, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the formulation, development, and commercialization of therapies for diseases and conditions of the eye using its bioresorbable hydrogel-based formulation technology. The company markets ReSure Sealant, an ophthalmic device to prevent wound leaks in corneal incisions following cataract surgery; and DEXTENZA, a dexamethasone ophthalmic insert to treat post-surgical ocular inflammation and pain following ophthalmic surgery, as well as allergic conjunctivitis. It is also developing OTX-TKI, an axitinib intravitreal implant that is in phase 1 clinical trials for the treatment of wet age-related macular degeneration and other retinal diseases; OTX-TIC, a travoprost intracameral implant, which is in phase 2 clinical trials for the treatment of open-angle glaucoma or ocular hypertension; OTX-CSI, a cyclosporine intracanalicular insert that has completed phase 2 clinical trials for the treatment of dry eye disease; and OTX-DED, a dexamethasone intracanalicular insert, which is in phase 2 clinical trials for the short-term treatment of the signs and symptoms of dry eye disease.

Ocular Therapeutix Fundamentals Summary

How do Ocular Therapeutix's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
OCUL fundamental statistics
Market CapUS$407.15m
Earnings (TTM)-US$32.50m
Revenue (TTM)US$49.91m

8.2x

P/S Ratio

-12.5x

P/E Ratio

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
OCUL income statement (TTM)
RevenueUS$49.91m
Cost of RevenueUS$54.96m
Gross Profit-US$5.04m
Other ExpensesUS$27.46m
Earnings-US$32.50m

Last Reported Earnings

Jun 30, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)-0.42
Gross Margin-10.10%
Net Profit Margin-65.11%
Debt/Equity Ratio80.1%

How did OCUL perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison
We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is OCUL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for OCUL?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

OCUL key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue6.7x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA-4.5x
PEG Ration/a

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does OCUL's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

OCUL PS Ratio vs Peers
The above table shows the PS ratio for OCUL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyPSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average8.9x
FULC Fulcrum Therapeutics
28.6x45.3%US$413.7m
JUSH.F Jushi Holdings
1x36.2%US$256.8m
EOLS Evolus
3.5x23.3%US$466.7m
XERS Xeris Biopharma Holdings
2.6x27.7%US$209.4m
OCUL Ocular Therapeutix
8.2x38.5%US$407.2m

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: OCUL is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (8.2x) compared to the peer average (8.9x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does OCUL's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Pharmaceuticals Industry?

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: OCUL is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (8.2x) compared to the US Pharmaceuticals industry average (2.8x)


Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is OCUL's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

OCUL PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio8.2x
Fair PS Ratio5.1x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: OCUL is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (8.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (5.1x).


Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of OCUL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: OCUL ($5.29) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($222.25)

Significantly Below Fair Value: OCUL is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.


Discover undervalued companies

Future Growth

How is Ocular Therapeutix forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 6 analysts?

Future Growth Score

2/6

Future Growth Score 2/6

  • Earnings vs Savings Rate

  • Earnings vs Market

  • High Growth Earnings

  • Revenue vs Market

  • High Growth Revenue

  • Future ROE


73.9%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts


Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: OCUL is forecast to remain unprofitable over the next 3 years.

Earnings vs Market: OCUL is forecast to remain unprofitable over the next 3 years.

High Growth Earnings: OCUL is forecast to remain unprofitable over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: OCUL's revenue (38.5% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (7.6% per year).

High Growth Revenue: OCUL's revenue (38.5% per year) is forecast to grow faster than 20% per year.


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: Insufficient data to determine if OCUL's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time


Discover growth companies

Past Performance

How has Ocular Therapeutix performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

0/6

Past Performance Score 0/6

  • Quality Earnings

  • Growing Profit Margin

  • Earnings Trend

  • Accelerating Growth

  • Earnings vs Industry

  • High ROE


-2.3%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: OCUL is currently unprofitable.

Growing Profit Margin: OCUL is currently unprofitable.


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: OCUL is unprofitable, and losses have increased over the past 5 years at a rate of 2.3% per year.

Accelerating Growth: Unable to compare OCUL's earnings growth over the past year to its 5-year average as it is currently unprofitable

Earnings vs Industry: OCUL is unprofitable, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the Pharmaceuticals industry (5%).


Return on Equity

High ROE: OCUL has a negative Return on Equity (-49.39%), as it is currently unprofitable.


Discover strong past performing companies

Financial Health

How is Ocular Therapeutix's financial position?

Financial Health Score

4/6

Financial Health Score 4/6

  • Short Term Liabilities

  • Long Term Liabilities

  • Debt Level

  • Reducing Debt

  • Stable Cash Runway

  • Forecast Cash Runway

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: OCUL's short term assets ($160.3M) exceed its short term liabilities ($26.1M).

Long Term Liabilities: OCUL's short term assets ($160.3M) exceed its long term liabilities ($81.2M).


Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: OCUL has more cash than its total debt.

Reducing Debt: OCUL's debt to equity ratio has increased from 37.2% to 80.1% over the past 5 years.


Balance Sheet


Cash Runway Analysis

For companies that have on average been loss making in the past we assess whether they have at least 1 year of cash runway.

Stable Cash Runway: OCUL has sufficient cash runway for more than a year based on its current free cash flow.

Forecast Cash Runway: Insufficient data to determine if OCUL has enough cash runway if its free cash flow continues to grow or shrink based on historical rates.


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Dividend

What is Ocular Therapeutix current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

0/6

Dividend Score 0/6

  • Notable Dividend

  • High Dividend

  • Stable Dividend

  • Growing Dividend

  • Earnings Coverage

  • Cash Flow Coverage

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate OCUL's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate OCUL's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.


Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if OCUL's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if OCUL's dividend payments have been increasing.


Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: Insufficient data to calculate payout ratio to determine if its dividend payments are covered by earnings.


Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: Unable to calculate sustainability of dividends as OCUL has not reported any payouts.


Discover strong dividend paying companies

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

2.0yrs

Average management tenure


CEO

Antony Mattessich (55 yo)

5.17yrs

Tenure

US$7,096,934

Compensation

Mr. Antony Mattessich serves as Director of Aura Biosciences, Inc. since September 2021. He has been the Chief Executive Officer and President of Ocular Therapeutix, Inc. since July 26, 2017. Mr. Mattessic...


CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Antony's total compensation ($USD7.10M) is above average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD2.89M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Antony's compensation has increased whilst the company is unprofitable.


Leadership Team

Experienced Management: OCUL's management team is considered experienced (2 years average tenure).


Board Members

Experienced Board: OCUL's board of directors are considered experienced (5.3 years average tenure).


Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?


Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.


Recent Insider Transactions

NasdaqGM:OCUL Recent Insider Transactions by Companies or Individuals
DateValueNameEntityRoleSharesMax Price
12 May 22BuyUS$45,750Jeffrey HeierIndividual15,000US$3.05
23 Feb 22BuyUS$247,926Summer Road LLCCompany50,000US$5.00
28 Jan 22BuyUS$28,600Summer Road LLCCompany5,500US$5.20
24 Jan 22BuyUS$405,808Summer Road LLCCompany74,500US$5.70
18 Jan 22BuyUS$302,921Summer Road LLCCompany50,000US$6.20
15 Dec 21BuyUS$282,421Summer Road LLCCompany44,490US$6.41
13 Dec 21BuyUS$267,796Summer Road LLCCompany40,510US$6.65
08 Dec 21BuyUS$376,603Summer Road LLCCompany60,900US$6.75

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.


Top Shareholders

Top 25 shareholders own 51.18% of the company
OwnershipNameSharesCurrent ValueChange %Portfolio %
7.76%
Opaleye Management Inc.
5,974,800$31.6m0%13.62%
7.72%
Summer Road LLC
5,944,761$31.4m0%100%
6.23%
BlackRock, Inc.
4,795,603$25.4m-5.4%no data
5.07%
The Vanguard Group, Inc.
3,898,551$20.6m-7.08%no data
3.26%
Emerald Advisers, LLC
2,510,434$13.3m5.26%0.38%
2.69%
Deltec Asset Management LLC
2,069,313$10.9m-0.34%2.78%
2.24%
Citadel Advisors LLC
1,723,993$9.1m1.87%0.01%
1.83%
State Street Global Advisors, Inc.
1,411,827$7.5m-17.19%no data
1.76%
Geode Capital Management, LLC
1,351,425$7.1m-0.92%no data
1.55%
Federated Hermes, Inc.
1,192,072$6.3m91.57%0.02%
1.32%
MSD Partners, L.P.
1,016,302$5.4m0%0.61%
0.99%
Endurant Capital Management LP
760,228$4.0m-17.72%2.19%
0.97%
D. E. Shaw & Co., L.P.
748,465$4.0m21.99%0.01%
0.9%
Altium Capital Management LP
695,000$3.7m0%1.56%
0.87%
Northern Trust Global Investments
667,581$3.5m-8.45%no data
0.78%
Cetera Investment Advisers LLC
599,150$3.2m5.72%0.06%
0.73%
Santander Towarzystwo Funduszy Inwestycyjnych S.A.
564,248$3.0m-19.42%0.49%
0.72%
Santander Asset Management, S.A., S.G.I.I.C.
555,884$2.9m0%0.01%
0.67%
UBS O'Connor LLC
512,886$2.7m70.96%0.07%
0.66%
BMO Asset Management Corp.
511,195$2.7m142.34%no data
0.54%
Goldman Sachs Group, Investment Banking and Securities Investments
417,173$2.2m33.04%no data
0.51%
Two Sigma Advisers, LP
389,100$2.1m-43.21%0.01%
0.5%
Renaissance Technologies LLC
381,500$2.0m-25.31%no data
0.45%
Millennium Management LLC
349,201$1.8m-52.54%no data
0.45%
Teachers Insurance and Annuity Association-College Retirement Equities Fund
348,097$1.8m6.19%no data

Company Information

Ocular Therapeutix, Inc.'s employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


Key Information

  • Name: Ocular Therapeutix, Inc.
  • Ticker: OCUL
  • Exchange: NasdaqGM
  • Founded: 2006
  • Industry: Pharmaceuticals
  • Sector: Pharmaceuticals & Biotech
  • Implied Market Cap: US$407.155m
  • Shares outstanding: 76.97m
  • Website: https://www.ocutx.com

Number of Employees


Location

  • Ocular Therapeutix, Inc.
  • 24 Crosby Drive
  • Bedford
  • Massachusetts
  • 1730
  • United States


Listings

TickerExchangePrimary SecuritySecurity TypeCountryCurrencyListed on
OCULNasdaqGM (Nasdaq Global Market)YesCommon StockUSUSDJul 2014
0OTDB (Deutsche Boerse AG)YesCommon StockDEEURJul 2014

Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2022/09/25 00:00
End of Day Share Price2022/09/23 00:00
Earnings2022/06/30
Annual Earnings2021/12/31


Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.