OCUL Stock Overview
Ocular Therapeutix, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the formulation, development, and commercialization of therapies for diseases and conditions of the eye using its bioresorbable hydrogel-based formulation technology.
Ocular Therapeutix Competitors
Price History & Performance
|Historical stock prices|
|Current Share Price||US$5.29|
|52 Week High||US$12.50|
|52 Week Low||US$2.91|
|1 Month Change||4.13%|
|3 Month Change||28.71%|
|1 Year Change||-49.57%|
|3 Year Change||63.78%|
|5 Year Change||-14.40%|
|Change since IPO||-59.77%|
Recent News & Updates
Despite Lacking Profits Ocular Therapeutix (NASDAQ:OCUL) Seems To Be On Top Of Its Debt
Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of...
Ocular Therapeutix: Trading Ahead Of An Underappreciated Catalyst Event
The market doesn't fully appreciate that OCUL was granted a late-breaking slot at the September 30 AAO conference to present its OTX-TKI Phase 1 data in wet AMD. I review wet AMD, the current standard of care and OCUL's ambitions to treat the disease. I also update the DEXTENZA sales uptake as well as discussing important risks prospective investors should be aware of. Recently, the stock price of Ocular Therapeutix (OCUL) has risen due to the potential catalyst event of the company being awarded a late-breaking slot at the American Academy of Ophthalmology to discuss recent data from its Phase 1 trial of OTX-TKI in wet AMD. This article is a follow up to my existing coverage of the company, but since I haven't previously discussed OTX-TKI in any detail, today I'd like to provide some background on wet AMD in general, the current standard of care, and what OCUL hopes to be able to bring to the table. I'll then update DEXTENZA sales data (and my projections for the future), and then will close with a look at the company's cash runway and the biggest risks that I see for current shareholders. bigcharts Wet AMD The macular society has a succinct definition of wet AMD (note that wet AMD is a progression from the less serious condition of dry AMD): Wet age-related macular degeneration ((AMD)) develops when abnormal blood vessels grow into the macula. These leak blood or fluid which leads to scarring of the macula and rapid loss of central vision. Wet AMD can develop very suddenly, but it can now be treated if caught quickly. Fast referral to a hospital specialist is essential. And Brightfocus highlights both the seriousness and societal cost of wet AMD and AMD generally: Wet macular degeneration accounts for approximately 10 percent of cases, but results in 90 percent of legal blindness. It is considered advanced macular degeneration (there is no early or intermediate stage of wet macular degeneration). Wet macular degeneration is always preceded by the dry form of the disease. [...] Estimates of the global cost of visual impairment due to age-related macular degeneration is $343 billion, including $255 billion in direct health care costs. Genentech estimates that in 2011 there were about 1.7M cases of wet AMD in the US and that 200,000 new cases are diagnosed annually in North America. It further estimates that by 2020 there would be nearly 3M cases in the US. Research and Markets estimates that there are about 4.4M wet AMD cases spread across the US, EU5 and Japan in 2020. Thus, any way you look at it, wet AMD is a prevalent and potentially devastating disease, so treatment is a must. Which brings us to the current SOC. Standard of Care This NCBI article does a great job of not only explaining the current standard of care (SOC) for wet AMD, it also discusses some of the drawbacks, which, as we'll see below, is where OCUL is hoping to contribute (with my emphasis). Research has identified the vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) as an important pathophysiological component in neovascular AMD and its intraocular inhibition as one of the most efficient therapies in medicine. The introduction of anti-VEGF as a standard treatment in wet AMD has led to a great improvement in the prognosis of patients, allowing recovery and maintenance of visual function in the vast majority of cases. However, the therapeutic benefit is accompanied by a difficulty in maintaining the treatment schedule due to the increase in the amount of patients, stress of monthly assessments, as well as the associated economic burden. Therefore, treatment strategies have evolved from fixed monthly dosing, to individualized regimens, aiming for comparable results, with fewer injections. One such protocol is called “pro re nata”, or “treat and observe”. Patients are given a loading dose of 3 monthly injections, followed by an as-needed decision to treat, based on the worsening of visual acuity, clinical evidence of the disease activity on fundoscopy, or OCT evidence of retinal thickening in the presence of intra or subretinal fluid. A different regimen is called “treat and extend”, in which the interval between injections is gradually increased, once the disease stabilization is achieved. This article also discusses the idea of "treat and extend", but it correctly notes that FDA approvals have generally been based on fixed dose regimens, so by implication, doctors are taking some personal risks in essentially going off of protocol when they engage in "treat and extend" (again with my emphasis). In wet age-related macular degeneration, the gold standard treatment is intravitreal VEGF inhibitors. Many of these medicines were FDA approved based on positive data from phase 3 clinical trials. In these pivotal clinical trials, many of these medicines were given at fixed dosing regimens, and that provides us with level 1 evidence for the treatment of these diseases. In clinical practice, retina specialists often individualize the therapy for each patient. Because of this individualized and personalized therapy, sometimes patients are on different dosing regimens. The most popular dosing regimen in the United States for the treatment of wet age-related macular degeneration is a treat-and-extend regimen, which allows patients to potentially have fewer injections but with still the same efficacious results. OTX-TKI for Wet AMD OCUL early stage candidate treatment is an intravitreal implant with a hydrogel that's intended to deliver a tyrosine kinase inhibitor, Axitinib, whose primary mechanism of action (MOA) is thought to be VEGF inhibition. The hope is that the hydrogel will deliver the drug for at least 6 months which would be a huge improvement over the FDA trials in which current drugs have been approved based on regular 1 or 2 month injections. This slide from the most recent investor presentation gives a basic overview of the approach: ocutx.gcs-web.com/static-files/9cbd8ae8-593e-4091-8d30-fed0534153e4 Phase 1 Trials OTX-TKI is currently in two phase 1 trials, the earlier one, which is being conducted in Australia, is intended to see how well the drug can clear fluid from the eye. The more recent trial is being conducted in the US and is intended to answer the question "how long can OTX-TKI keep a dry eye dry without retreatment?" This slide does a nice job of contrasting the two trials (while also highlighting the design of the US trial): investor presentation The first trial had several cohorts testing various doses and combinations. Among other things, it showed that across the various treatment regimes, >50% of patients achieved durability of better than 6 months. Investor Presentation This result is part of what gives management (and investors) confidence that the data that will be shared at the late breaking session in September will be interesting/positive. In particular, this optimism is based on the company believing that keeping a dry eye dry is much easier than removing existing fluid from the eye and then keeping it dry. This is the key to the catalyst trade and is probably under-appreciated by the market at large.
|OCUL||US Pharmaceuticals||US Market|
Return vs Industry: OCUL underperformed the US Pharmaceuticals industry which returned 2.9% over the past year.
Return vs Market: OCUL underperformed the US Market which returned -23% over the past year.
|OCUL Average Weekly Movement||10.1%|
|Pharmaceuticals Industry Average Movement||11.6%|
|Market Average Movement||6.9%|
|10% most volatile stocks in US Market||15.8%|
|10% least volatile stocks in US Market||2.8%|
Stable Share Price: OCUL is not significantly more volatile than the rest of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 10% a week.
Volatility Over Time: OCUL's weekly volatility (10%) has been stable over the past year.
About the Company
Ocular Therapeutix, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the formulation, development, and commercialization of therapies for diseases and conditions of the eye using its bioresorbable hydrogel-based formulation technology. The company markets ReSure Sealant, an ophthalmic device to prevent wound leaks in corneal incisions following cataract surgery; and DEXTENZA, a dexamethasone ophthalmic insert to treat post-surgical ocular inflammation and pain following ophthalmic surgery, as well as allergic conjunctivitis. It is also developing OTX-TKI, an axitinib intravitreal implant that is in phase 1 clinical trials for the treatment of wet age-related macular degeneration and other retinal diseases; OTX-TIC, a travoprost intracameral implant, which is in phase 2 clinical trials for the treatment of open-angle glaucoma or ocular hypertension; OTX-CSI, a cyclosporine intracanalicular insert that has completed phase 2 clinical trials for the treatment of dry eye disease; and OTX-DED, a dexamethasone intracanalicular insert, which is in phase 2 clinical trials for the short-term treatment of the signs and symptoms of dry eye disease.
Ocular Therapeutix Fundamentals Summary
|OCUL fundamental statistics|
Is OCUL overvalued?See Fair Value and valuation analysis
Earnings & Revenue
|OCUL income statement (TTM)|
|Cost of Revenue||US$54.96m|
Last Reported Earnings
Jun 30, 2022
Next Earnings Date
|Earnings per share (EPS)||-0.42|
|Net Profit Margin||-65.11%|
How did OCUL perform over the long term?See historical performance and comparison
Is OCUL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?
Valuation Score 3/6
Price-To-Sales vs Peers
Price-To-Sales vs Industry
Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Key Valuation Metric
Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for OCUL?
Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.
|What is OCUL's n/a Ratio?|
Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers
How does OCUL's PS Ratio compare to its peers?
|OCUL PS Ratio vs Peers|
|Company||PS||Estimated Growth||Market Cap|
FULC Fulcrum Therapeutics
JUSH.F Jushi Holdings
XERS Xeris Biopharma Holdings
OCUL Ocular Therapeutix
Price-To-Sales vs Peers: OCUL is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (8.2x) compared to the peer average (8.9x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry
How does OCUL's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Pharmaceuticals Industry?
Price-To-Sales vs Industry: OCUL is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (8.2x) compared to the US Pharmaceuticals industry average (2.8x)
Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio
What is OCUL's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
|Current PS Ratio||8.2x|
|Fair PS Ratio||5.1x|
Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: OCUL is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (8.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (5.1x).
Share Price vs Fair Value
What is the Fair Price of OCUL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.
Below Fair Value: OCUL ($5.29) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($222.25)
Significantly Below Fair Value: OCUL is trading below fair value by more than 20%.
Analyst Price Targets
What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?
Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.
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How is Ocular Therapeutix forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 6 analysts?
Future Growth Score2/6
Future Growth Score 2/6
Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Forecasted annual earnings growth
Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts
Analyst Future Growth Forecasts
Earnings vs Savings Rate: OCUL is forecast to remain unprofitable over the next 3 years.
Earnings vs Market: OCUL is forecast to remain unprofitable over the next 3 years.
High Growth Earnings: OCUL is forecast to remain unprofitable over the next 3 years.
Revenue vs Market: OCUL's revenue (38.5% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (7.6% per year).
High Growth Revenue: OCUL's revenue (38.5% per year) is forecast to grow faster than 20% per year.
Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts
Future Return on Equity
Future ROE: Insufficient data to determine if OCUL's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time
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How has Ocular Therapeutix performed over the past 5 years?
Past Performance Score0/6
Past Performance Score 0/6
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings vs Industry
Historical annual earnings growth
Earnings and Revenue History
Quality Earnings: OCUL is currently unprofitable.
Growing Profit Margin: OCUL is currently unprofitable.
Past Earnings Growth Analysis
Earnings Trend: OCUL is unprofitable, and losses have increased over the past 5 years at a rate of 2.3% per year.
Accelerating Growth: Unable to compare OCUL's earnings growth over the past year to its 5-year average as it is currently unprofitable
Earnings vs Industry: OCUL is unprofitable, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the Pharmaceuticals industry (5%).
Return on Equity
High ROE: OCUL has a negative Return on Equity (-49.39%), as it is currently unprofitable.
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How is Ocular Therapeutix's financial position?
Financial Health Score4/6
Financial Health Score 4/6
Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Stable Cash Runway
Forecast Cash Runway
Financial Position Analysis
Short Term Liabilities: OCUL's short term assets ($160.3M) exceed its short term liabilities ($26.1M).
Long Term Liabilities: OCUL's short term assets ($160.3M) exceed its long term liabilities ($81.2M).
Debt to Equity History and Analysis
Debt Level: OCUL has more cash than its total debt.
Reducing Debt: OCUL's debt to equity ratio has increased from 37.2% to 80.1% over the past 5 years.
Cash Runway Analysis
For companies that have on average been loss making in the past we assess whether they have at least 1 year of cash runway.
Stable Cash Runway: OCUL has sufficient cash runway for more than a year based on its current free cash flow.
Forecast Cash Runway: Insufficient data to determine if OCUL has enough cash runway if its free cash flow continues to grow or shrink based on historical rates.
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What is Ocular Therapeutix current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?
Dividend Score 0/6
Cash Flow Coverage
Dividend Yield vs Market
Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate OCUL's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.
High Dividend: Unable to evaluate OCUL's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.
Stability and Growth of Payments
Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if OCUL's dividends per share have been stable in the past.
Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if OCUL's dividend payments have been increasing.
Earnings Payout to Shareholders
Earnings Coverage: Insufficient data to calculate payout ratio to determine if its dividend payments are covered by earnings.
Cash Payout to Shareholders
Cash Flow Coverage: Unable to calculate sustainability of dividends as OCUL has not reported any payouts.
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How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?
Average management tenure
Antony Mattessich (55 yo)
Mr. Antony Mattessich serves as Director of Aura Biosciences, Inc. since September 2021. He has been the Chief Executive Officer and President of Ocular Therapeutix, Inc. since July 26, 2017. Mr. Mattessic...
CEO Compensation Analysis
Compensation vs Market: Antony's total compensation ($USD7.10M) is above average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD2.89M).
Compensation vs Earnings: Antony's compensation has increased whilst the company is unprofitable.
Experienced Management: OCUL's management team is considered experienced (2 years average tenure).
Experienced Board: OCUL's board of directors are considered experienced (5.3 years average tenure).
Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?
Insider Trading Volume
Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.
Recent Insider Transactions
|12 May 22||BuyUS$45,750||Jeffrey Heier||Individual||15,000||US$3.05|
|23 Feb 22||BuyUS$247,926||Summer Road LLC||Company||50,000||US$5.00|
|28 Jan 22||BuyUS$28,600||Summer Road LLC||Company||5,500||US$5.20|
|24 Jan 22||BuyUS$405,808||Summer Road LLC||Company||74,500||US$5.70|
|18 Jan 22||BuyUS$302,921||Summer Road LLC||Company||50,000||US$6.20|
|15 Dec 21||BuyUS$282,421||Summer Road LLC||Company||44,490||US$6.41|
|13 Dec 21||BuyUS$267,796||Summer Road LLC||Company||40,510||US$6.65|
|08 Dec 21||BuyUS$376,603||Summer Road LLC||Company||60,900||US$6.75|
Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.
|Ownership||Name||Shares||Current Value||Change %||Portfolio %|
Ocular Therapeutix, Inc.'s employee growth, exchange listings and data sources
- Name: Ocular Therapeutix, Inc.
- Ticker: OCUL
- Exchange: NasdaqGM
- Founded: 2006
- Industry: Pharmaceuticals
- Sector: Pharmaceuticals & Biotech
- Implied Market Cap: US$407.155m
- Shares outstanding: 76.97m
- Website: https://www.ocutx.com
Number of Employees
- Ocular Therapeutix, Inc.
- 24 Crosby Drive
- United States
|Ticker||Exchange||Primary Security||Security Type||Country||Currency||Listed on|
|OCUL||NasdaqGM (Nasdaq Global Market)||Yes||Common Stock||US||USD||Jul 2014|
|0OT||DB (Deutsche Boerse AG)||Yes||Common Stock||DE||EUR||Jul 2014|
Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
|Data||Last Updated (UTC time)|
|Company Analysis||2022/09/25 00:00|
|End of Day Share Price||2022/09/23 00:00|
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.