Ocugen (NasdaqCM:OCGN) - Share price, News & Analysis

OCGN fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	3/6
Future Growth	5/6
Past Performance	0/6
Financial Health	5/6
Dividends	0/6

OCGN Stock Overview

Ocugen, Inc., a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the developing gene therapies to cure blindness diseases.

Rewards

Trading at 77.9% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 74.21% per year

Risk Analysis

Makes less than USD$1m in revenue ($0)

Volatile share price over the past 3 months

Shareholders have been diluted in the past year

Ocugen Competitors

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Ocugen
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	US$2.51
52 Week High	US$17.65
52 Week Low	US$1.67
Beta	4.71
1 Month Change	13.58%
3 Month Change	-27.87%
1 Year Change	-69.94%
3 Year Change	n/a
5 Year Change	n/a
Change since IPO	-11.93%

Shareholder Returns

	OCGN	US Biotechs	US Market
7D	16.2%	10.3%	6.6%
1Y	-69.9%	-24.3%	-18.4%

Return vs Industry: OCGN underperformed the US Biotechs industry which returned -24.3% over the past year.

Return vs Market: OCGN underperformed the US Market which returned -18.4% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is OCGN's price volatile compared to industry and market?
OCGN volatility
OCGN Average Weekly Movement	14.1%
Biotechs Industry Average Movement	13.2%
Market Average Movement	8.1%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market	16.6%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market	3.2%

Stable Share Price: OCGN is more volatile than 75% of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 14% a week.

Volatility Over Time: OCGN's weekly volatility (14%) has been stable over the past year, but is still higher than 75% of US stocks.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
n/a	56	Shankar Musunuri	https://www.ocugen.com

Ocugen, Inc., a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the developing gene therapies to cure blindness diseases. The company’s pipeline product includes OCU400, a novel gene therapy product candidate restoring retinal integrity and function across a range of genetically diverse inherited retinal diseases, such as retinitis pigmentosa and leber congenital amaurosis; OCU410, gene therapy candidate for the treatment of dry age-related macular degeneration (AMD); and OCU200, a novel fusion protein that is in preclinical development stage for the treatment of diabetic macular edema, diabetic retinopathy, and wet AMD. Ocugen, Inc. has a strategic partnership with CanSino Biologics Inc. for gene therapy co-development and manufacturing; and Bharat Biotech for the commercialization of COVAXIN in the United States market.

Ocugen Fundamentals Summary

How do Ocugen's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
OCGN fundamental statistics
Market Cap	US$541.31m
Earnings (TTM)	-US$69.31m
Revenue (TTM)	n/a

0.0x

P/S Ratio

-7.8x

P/E Ratio

Is OCGN overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
OCGN income statement (TTM)
Revenue	US$0
Cost of Revenue	US$38.10m
Gross Profit	-US$38.10m
Other Expenses	US$31.21m
Earnings	-US$69.31m

Last Reported Earnings

Mar 31, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	-0.32
Gross Margin	0.00%
Net Profit Margin	0.00%
Debt/Equity Ratio	1.3%

How did OCGN perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is OCGN undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

Price-To-Book vs Peers
Price-To-Book vs Industry
Price-To-Book vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
PEG Ratio

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for OCGN?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for OCGN. This is calculated by dividing OCGN's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is OCGN's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	US$541.31m

OCGN key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	n/a
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	-6x
PEG Ratio	n/a

Price to Book Ratio vs Peers

How does OCGN's PB Ratio compare to its peers?

OCGN PB Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PB ratio for OCGN vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PB	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	13.7x

Price-To-Book vs Peers: OCGN is good value based on its Price-To-Book Ratio (4.1x) compared to the peer average (13.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does OCGN's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the U.S. Biotechs Industry?

Price-To-Book vs Industry: OCGN is expensive based on its Price-To-Book Ratio (4.1x) compared to the US Biotechs industry average (1.6x)

Price to Book Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is OCGN's PB Ratio compared to its Fair PB Ratio? This is the expected PB Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

OCGN PB Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PB Ratio	4.1x
Fair PB Ratio	n/a

Price-To-Book vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate OCGN's Price-To-Book Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of OCGN when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: OCGN ($2.51) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($11.37)

Significantly Below Fair Value: OCGN is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate OCGN's PEG Ratio to determine if it is good value.

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Future Growth

How is Ocugen forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 5 analysts?

Future Growth Score

5/6

Future Growth Score 5/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

74.2%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: OCGN is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered faster growth than the savings rate (1.9%).

Earnings vs Market: OCGN is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered above average market growth.

High Growth Earnings: OCGN is expected to become profitable in the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: OCGN's revenue (63.7% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (8.4% per year).

High Growth Revenue: OCGN's revenue (63.7% per year) is forecast to grow faster than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: Insufficient data to determine if OCGN's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time

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Past Performance

How has Ocugen performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

0/6

Past Performance Score 0/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

-38.3%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: OCGN is currently unprofitable.

Growing Profit Margin: OCGN is currently unprofitable.

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: OCGN is unprofitable, and losses have increased over the past 5 years at a rate of 38.3% per year.

Accelerating Growth: Unable to compare OCGN's earnings growth over the past year to its 5-year average as it is currently unprofitable

Earnings vs Industry: OCGN is unprofitable, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the Biotechs industry (96.9%).

Return on Equity

High ROE: OCGN has a negative Return on Equity (-52.85%), as it is currently unprofitable.

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Financial Health

How is Ocugen's financial position?

Financial Health Score

5/6

Financial Health Score 5/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Stable Cash Runway
Forecast Cash Runway

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: OCGN's short term assets ($138.0M) exceed its short term liabilities ($7.7M).

Long Term Liabilities: OCGN's short term assets ($138.0M) exceed its long term liabilities ($2.9M).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: OCGN has more cash than its total debt.

Reducing Debt: Insufficient data to determine if OCGN's debt to equity ratio has reduced over the past 5 years.

Balance Sheet

Cash Runway Analysis

For companies that have on average been loss making in the past we assess whether they have at least 1 year of cash runway.

Stable Cash Runway: OCGN has sufficient cash runway for more than a year based on its current free cash flow.

Forecast Cash Runway: OCGN has sufficient cash runway for 1.3 years if free cash flow continues to reduce at historical rates of 47.2% each year.

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Dividend

What is Ocugen current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

0/6

Dividend Score 0/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Future Dividend Coverage

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate OCGN's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate OCGN's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if OCGN's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if OCGN's dividend payments have been increasing.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: Insufficient data to calculate payout ratio to determine if its dividend payments are covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: Unable to calculate sustainability of dividends as OCGN has not reported any payouts.

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Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

1.9yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Shankar Musunuri (57 yo)

2.75yrs

Tenure

US$8,141,351

Compensation

Dr. Shankar Musunuri, Ph D., MBA, is the Co-Founder of Ocugen, Inc. and has been its Chairman and Chief Executive Officer and Director since September 27, 2019. Dr. Musunuri has served as the Co-Founder, C...

CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Shankar's total compensation ($USD8.14M) is above average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD2.83M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Shankar's compensation has increased whilst the company is unprofitable.

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: OCGN's management team is not considered experienced ( 1.9 years average tenure), which suggests a new team.

Board Members

Experienced Board: OCGN's board of directors are not considered experienced ( 2.6 years average tenure), which suggests a new board.

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have been diluted in the past year, with total shares outstanding growing by 8.8%.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/06/26 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/06/24 00:00
Earnings	2022/03/31
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31