Shareholders in Intellia Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:NTLA) may be thrilled to learn that the analysts have just delivered a major upgrade to their near-term forecasts. The analysts have sharply increased their revenue numbers, with a view that Intellia Therapeutics will make substantially more sales than they'd previously expected. The market may be pricing in some blue sky too, with the share price gaining 21% to US$65.97 in the last 7 days. It will be interesting to see if today's upgrade is enough to propel the stock even higher.
Following the upgrade, the consensus from 13 analysts covering Intellia Therapeutics is for revenues of US$38m in 2021, implying a sizeable 34% decline in sales compared to the last 12 months. Losses are expected to increase substantially, hitting US$2.81 per share. Yet before this consensus update, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$34m and losses of US$2.83 per share in 2021. So there's been quite a change-up of views after the recent consensus updates, withthe analysts noticeably increasing their revenue forecasts while also expecting losses per share to hold steady.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Intellia Therapeutics' past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that sales are expected to reverse, with a forecast 34% annualised revenue decline to the end of 2021. That is a notable change from historical growth of 33% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 18% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Intellia Therapeutics is expected to lag the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing here is that analysts reduced their loss per share estimates for this year, reflecting increased optimism around Intellia Therapeutics' prospects. Pleasantly, analysts also upgraded their revenue estimates, and their forecasts suggest the business is expected to grow slower than the wider market. Seeing the dramatic upgrade to this year's forecasts, it might be time to take another look at Intellia Therapeutics.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Intellia Therapeutics analysts - going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.
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