Moderna (MRNA) Is Up 11.2% After Lowered 2025 Forecast and Pipeline Updates Is the Growth Story Intact?

• In the past week, Moderna reported third quarter financial results showing a year-over-year revenue decrease to US$1.02 billion and a net loss of US$200 million, alongside a lowered full-year 2025 revenue forecast and reduced R&D expense guidance.
• Moderna also discontinued its CMV vaccine program due to lack of efficacy and reported progress in regulatory approvals for new respiratory vaccines, which may influence its future product pipeline.
• We'll explore how Moderna's revised 2025 revenue guidance impacts the company's broader investment narrative and pipeline outlook.

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Moderna Investment Narrative Recap

Being a shareholder in Moderna means believing in the company's ability to move beyond reliance on COVID-19 vaccines and successfully commercialize a wider mRNA-based pipeline. The recent earnings miss and narrowed 2025 revenue guidance reinforce that near-term revenue headwinds remain significant, but the most important catalyst continues to be progress with late-stage respiratory and combination vaccines; for now, the biggest risk, revenue volatility and underperformance in the pipeline, remains materially unchanged by these announcements.

Among the recent news, the discontinuation of the company’s CMV vaccine program stands out as a reminder of how pipeline attrition can impact future product launches. As Moderna advances toward regulatory submissions for other vaccines, investors will be watching closely to see if these new candidates can offset lost CMV potential and drive growth.

In contrast, what investors should be aware of is the potential for prolonged revenue volatility if seasonal vaccine demand proves inconsistent and...

Read the full narrative on Moderna (it's free!)

Moderna's narrative projects $3.5 billion in revenue and $498.6 million in earnings by 2028. This requires 4.6% yearly revenue growth and a $3.4 billion increase in earnings from the current level of -$2.9 billion.

Uncover how Moderna's forecasts yield a $40.30 fair value, a 53% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Twenty-five members of the Simply Wall St Community currently estimate Moderna's fair value between US$39.15 and US$175 per share. With pipeline setbacks and lower revenue expectations still in play, you can see why opinions on future performance can differ so much.

Explore 25 other fair value estimates on Moderna - why the stock might be worth just $39.15!

Build Your Own Moderna Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Moderna research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Moderna research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Moderna's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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