A Fresh Look at Moderna (MRNA) Valuation After Strategic Pipeline Cuts and US Manufacturing Shift

Moderna (MRNA) is making headlines after announcing it will halt work on three mRNA drug candidates, including vaccines for herpes and shingles, as well as a therapy targeting a rare genetic disease. In addition to these pipeline changes, the company is shifting all mRNA manufacturing to the US with plans to grow its Norwood, Massachusetts facility in the next couple of years.

See our latest analysis for Moderna.

This shake-up in Moderna’s development plans comes after a tough run for shareholders. Over the past year, Moderna has delivered a total shareholder return of -41.9%, reflecting fading momentum as pipeline setbacks and shifting strategies weigh on sentiment. While a modest rebound has taken shape in recent days, with a 5.4% share price return over the last week, longer-term investors remain underwater, and the three-year total return still sits deeply negative.

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With the stock trading well below its analyst price target and a turbulent year behind it, the key question for investors now is whether this sets the stage for future upside or if all the risks are already priced in.

Most Popular Narrative: 33% Undervalued

Moderna's most widely followed narrative sets a fair value significantly above the last close, suggesting compelling upside from current levels. The ongoing shift in strategy and operational priorities shapes this perspective on where the market may head next.

The dramatic expansion and advancement of Moderna's mRNA pipeline beyond COVID-19, including recent positive late-stage data and upcoming filings for flu, RSV, CMV, oncology, and rare diseases, are likely to diversify the revenue base, capitalize on the rising global burden of infectious and chronic diseases, and materially boost future top-line growth. Regulatory momentum and robust relationships with agencies (as reflected in multiple recent FDA approvals and ongoing engagement for pipeline submissions) position the company to benefit from accelerated approval pathways. This may enable faster commercialization of innovative products and unlock earlier revenue streams.

Read the complete narrative.

What’s the power behind this bullish price target? The narrative depends on accelerating new drug launches and future earnings margins more often seen in industry leaders. Curious about the aggressive financial projections and bold turnaround bets that underpin the narrative’s fair value? Discover the surprising core assumptions and the bullish case that could change investor sentiment.

Result: Fair Value of $37.32 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent declines in vaccine revenues and heightened regulatory uncertainty could present challenges to Moderna’s pathway to recovery and limit potential upside for investors.

Find out about the key risks to this Moderna narrative.

Build Your Own Moderna Narrative

If the current outlook doesn’t fit your perspective, there is always the option to dig into the numbers and craft your own story in just a few minutes with our Do it your way.

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward investors are optimistic about regarding Moderna.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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