The quarterly results for Mirum Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:MIRM) were released last week, making it a good time to revisit its performance. Revenues came in 499% better than analyst models expected, at US$11m, although statutory losses ballooned 217% to US$1.45, which is much worse than what was forecast. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Mirum Pharmaceuticals after the latest results.
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Mirum Pharmaceuticals from seven analysts is for revenues of US$37.0m in 2021 which, if met, would be a sizeable 237% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Losses are forecast to narrow 2.2% to US$5.37 per share. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$38.8m and US$3.83 per share in losses. So it's pretty clear the analysts have mixed opinions on Mirum Pharmaceuticals after this update; revenues were downgraded and per-share losses expected to increase.
The average price target was broadly unchanged at US$49.43, perhaps implicitly signalling that the weaker earnings outlook is not expected to have a long-term impact on the valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Mirum Pharmaceuticals at US$77.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$30.00. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. They also downgraded their revenue estimates, although industry data suggests that Mirum Pharmaceuticals' revenues are expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Mirum Pharmaceuticals analysts - going out to 2023, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Plus, you should also learn about the 3 warning signs we've spotted with Mirum Pharmaceuticals .
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