Illumina, Inc. Just Recorded A 76% EPS Beat: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Next

There's been a notable change in appetite for Illumina, Inc. (NASDAQ:ILMN) shares in the week since its second-quarter report, with the stock down 10% to US$98.44. Revenues were US$1.1b, approximately in line with whatthe analysts expected, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) crushed expectations, coming in at US$1.49, an impressive 76% ahead of estimates. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

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Following last week's earnings report, Illumina's 21 analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be US$4.26b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to nosedive 50% to US$4.13 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$4.23b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.50 in 2025. There was no real change to the revenue estimates, but the analysts do seem more bullish on earnings, given the decent improvement in earnings per share expectations following these results.

View our latest analysis for Illumina

The consensus price target was unchanged at US$114, implying that the improved earnings outlook is not expected to have a long term impact on value creation for shareholders. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Illumina at US$185 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$75.00. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 1.0% annualised decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 4.6% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 6.0% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Illumina is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Illumina following these results. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$114, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Illumina going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Before you take the next step you should know about the 2 warning signs for Illumina (1 makes us a bit uncomfortable!) that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.