ICPT Stock Overview
Intercept Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the development and commercialization of therapeutics to treat progressive non-viral liver diseases in the United States, Europe, and Canada.
Intercept Pharmaceuticals Competitors
Price History & Performance
|Historical stock prices|
|Current Share Price||US$15.24|
|52 Week High||US$21.25|
|52 Week Low||US$10.81|
|1 Month Change||-19.41%|
|3 Month Change||12.39%|
|1 Year Change||-5.11%|
|3 Year Change||-76.23%|
|5 Year Change||-73.74%|
|Change since IPO||-21.44%|
Recent News & Updates
Intercept touts Ocaliva benefit in transplant-free survival in liver disease type
Intercept Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:ICPT) Ocaliva (obeticholic acid) demonstrated a transplant-free survival benefit in patients with primary biliary cholangitis based on clinical trial and real-world data compared to those who didn't receive the treatment. Patients on Ocaliva had ~70% lower relative risk of death or liver transplant than control patients at any point during the six-year follow-up. The primary outcome -- time to first occurrence of liver failure or death -- favored Ocaliva in the phrase 3 POISE study compared to patients from real-world databases. Results were published in the journal Gastroenterology. Seeking Alpha's Quant Rating views Intercept (ICPT) as a buy with strong marks for momentum and profitability.
Intercept cuts debt further with deal to exchange convertible notes
Intercept Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:ICPT), a biotech focused on liver diseases, announced exchange agreements on Friday to repurchase nearly $44.5M worth of convertible debt for cash and common stock following a similar deleveraging strategy disclosed in August. The privately-negotiated Exchange Agreements signed Thursday allow the company to exchange its 3.50% Convertible Senior Secured Notes due 2026. Per the terms, notes worth $44.5M of the principal amount will be exchanged for $22.7M in cash and ~1.7M of newly issued common stock. The deal is expected to close on Sep. 06, subject to customary closing conditions. The latest deal follows similar agreements ICPT announced in August to repurchase $327.9M of its secured convertible debt for cash and stock. Both transactions have cut the principal balance of the ICPT's 2026 Notes to $127.6M from $500M. Read: "On the bright side, Intercept'sIntercept's balance sheet is rock-solid," Seeking Alpha contributor Edward Zhang wrote last month despite a Sell rating on the stock.
Intercept reduces debt with repurchases of $327.9M convertible notes
Intercept Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:ICPT) has entered into privately negotiated agreements to repurchase $327.9M of its secured convertible debt using a combination of cash and equity, the biopharmaceutical company announced on Friday. The repurchase is among a series of strategic financial moves undertaken by the company over the past 12 months to improve its capital structure. It will reduce Intercept's total outstanding debt by 45% and will be accretive to existing shareholders by reducing its potential share dilution by 6.3M shares. Net of this repurchase, the principal balance of the 2026 Notes has been reduced from $500M to $172.1M, and annual interest expense will be reduced by $11.5M to $6M. The transaction is expected to close promptly, subject to and following customary closing conditions. Following completion of these transactions, Intercept’s cash position will be in excess of $500M with 39.4M shares outstanding. Intercept (ICPT) shares gained 2% pre-market
Intercept Pharmaceuticals: Too Risky To Buy At This Stage
Intercept Pharmaceuticals has an important binary event coming up: the FDA’s decision regarding their NDA for Ocaliva in treating NASH. Information included in its most recent earnings report does little to inspire hope that this next decision will be any different from the last one. I am skeptical that the new efficacy and safety data will meet the FDA’s high standards for NASH. PBC sales are largely flat, highlighting how important breaking into the NASH market is for Intercept. Those who are confident in the therapeutic benefits of Ocaliva in treating NASH should consider initiating a long position after FDA approval, because the stock then would be meaningfully derisked. Introduction Intercept Pharmaceuticals (ICPT) announced its second quarter earnings results two weeks ago, revealing that it intends to resubmit Ocaliva's NDA for NASH by the end of the year. This is welcome news to many long-time Intercept holders, as they have been waiting for the resubmission ever since the FDA first denied the application in 2020. Also due soon, by the end of this quarter, are results from its REVERSE trial, which is evaluating Ocaliva as a NASH compensated cirrhosis treatment. Shares have since traded upwards by ~30% as of the time of writing. Enthusiasm has begun to bubble up again as these two binary events loom, but is optimism misplaced? Whether or not REVERSE will yield a successful outcome is uncertain, as NASH cirrhosis is more difficult to treat; the livers are more damaged; and the market is much smaller than the market for NASH Fibrosis. About 5-12% of those with NASH go on to develop NASH cirrhosis, and REVERSE looks at a subgroup of cirrhosis patients - those with compensated cirrhosis (meaning asymptomatic cirrhosis). The outcome of this trial will be important and will provide more clarity, but not critical in the same vein as the FDA decision. All eyes will really be on the FDA's upcoming decision, as it represents the largest market and will give perspective as to how stringent the FDA will be when it comes to approval. I am skeptical that this update about the company's resubmission plans does much to alleviate the fundamental issues that have plagued Intercept for the past eight years. Namely, it does not add enough color on Ocaliva's NDA resubmission prospects - nor does it add much information regarding the new data Intercept is submitting in its NDA. With the company's PBC sales flattening, much of Intercept's future value is dependent on the decision making of the FDA. If it were to approve Ocaliva as a NASH treatment, Intercept would easily become a multi-bagger. But if not, then Intercept would have to go back to the drawing board yet again. Thesis I believe that it would be unwise to bet on approval; simply not enough has changed between this NDA and the last NDA to warrant a changed opinion from the FDA. New data and analysis produced by Intercept does not add much to the picture, and Intercept has not released the full CRL letter. So it is impossible to exactly discern what the FDA wants to see. Given the safety profile of Ocaliva - and the black box label which comes with it as a PBC treatment - there is great reason to believe that the FDA will think cautiously when considering Intercept's NDA. If I had to bet on it, I would say that the FDA will either reject the NDA outright or grant conditional approval contingent upon a safety trial; either outcome would be disastrous for Intercept. But there is no need to bet on this outcome; not even Intercept knows what will happen. Even if you are bullish and convinced that Ocaliva's benefits outweighs its risks - that the company will be successful in commercializing Ocaliva - it would still be more prudent to build a long position after the FDA's decision and not prior to it. You lose out on some investment gains, but you successfully de-risk your investment thesis by a significant margin. Until the FDA decides its course of action, I would tentatively give Intercept a sell-rating. Financials Looking over its last earnings report reveals both bright and dim spots. On the bright side, Intercept's balance sheet is rock-solid. It has about ~$65 million in cash and cash equivalents on hand with another ~$346 million in liquid debt securities. And the company only saw a net loss of $7.5 million, a decrease YoY from $11.1 million in Q2'21. Net revenues rose slightly too, with PBC sales increasing YoY by a small margin. Total non-GAAP adjusted sales came out to be $100.4 million while U.S sales clocked in at $71.8 million. During the same quarter last year, sales were $96.6 million and $68.2 million for those respective categories. A dimmer interpretation of this slow growth is that Ocaliva is close to reaching peak revenues in the PBC market - which would be unfortunate considering how Intercept has not reached profitability yet. Intercept has never been profitable, despite Ocaliva being approved for PBC since 2017. The company selling its international rights to Ocaliva for only ~$450 million shows that management is not confident in its ability to squeeze more growth from international markets, in my view. One somewhat concerning aspect of the balance sheet is the high amount of debt. At the moment, Intercept has about $713 million in debt, most of which is comprised of 2023 and 2026 convertible notes. Value Maturity Date *Unless Converted/Repurchased/Redeemed Conversion Rate Conversion Price 2026 Convertible Secured Notes 543,370,000 February 15, 2026 47.7612 $20.94 2026 Convertible Unsecured Notes 69,492,000 May 15, 2026 9.2123 $108.55 2023 Convertible Unsecured Notes 107,727,000 July 1, 2023 5.0358 $198.56 Source: Table Constructed By Author, Information Drawn From Q2'22 10-Q Filing Conversion rates for these notes vary wildly, but the good thing is that the conversion dates for most of the notes are in 2026, giving the company time to make that price-point. Not so good is that the conversion prices are somewhat high compared to the current share price. The largest tranche of notes, the 2026 secured convertible notes, has a conversion price of ~$20.94 - which is only about ~17% higher than the current share price as of the time of writing. Even if the stock does appreciate 17%, it is unlikely that a majority of investors would choose to convert their loans into equity unless Intercept clears the NASH regulatory hurdle: there is no incentive for debt-holders to convert their stakes into equity positions unless the future is meaningfully de-risked; having their investment in the form of debt gives them a layer of protection in exchange for less upside. Many investors see high conversion prices as a good thing, since they want to see minimal shareholder dilution. In this case, it may not be so good. If Intercept is unable to meaningfully lift its stock price or grow its revenue, this debt could prove to be an existential burden for the company. Sales from PBC alone won't cut it as a revenue solution - Intercept needs regulators to unlock the NASH market if it wants to overcome its debt. No unlock may mean that shareholders don't get diluted by conversion, but it would also create solvency issues for Intercept; the bill will eventually come forward in one way or another. Right now, Intercept has enough cash to buy valuable time for itself. But eventually, that debt will either be converted or has to be paid off. And currently, Intercept does not have enough cash on hand to pay off its debt in full. The only way the company can meet its obligations, short of conversion, is by selling more shares or refinancing its debt. Neither the capital markets or creditors would give Intercept favorable financing options if it tries to negotiate without Ocaliva's approval for NASH in hand. Short of approval, this debt represents a major threat to the future of Intercept. Ocaliva Faces Long Odds A core component of my skepticism towards Intercept is that I believe Ocaliva faces long odds for FDA approval. In 2020, the FDA rejected Intercept's Ocaliva NDA for NASH, informing them that the "predicted benefit… remains uncertain." Much of this uncertainty stems from Ocaliva's modest efficacy and unbalanced safety profile. On the efficacy side, Ocaliva only hit one of the two primary endpoints in REGENERATE, which was the phase three trial evaluating Ocaliva as a NASH treatment. Both the 10 milligram and 25 milligram dosage of Ocaliva managed to demonstrate a statistically significant improvement over placebo with the fibrosis reduction endpoint, but neither dosage achieved statistical significance over placebo with NASH resolution - the other endpoint. For the fibrosis endpoint, it should also be noted that the 10 milligram arm showed a p-value of only 0.0446, just barely passing the hurdle for what the FDA considers statistically significant. The higher dosage, 25 milligrams, had a stronger p-value of 0.0002. Another important aspect to consider is that there were serious safety concerns that appeared dose-dependent. 28% and 51% of those in the 10 milligram and 25 milligram arm respectively reported pruritus - also known as chronic itching - compared to just 19% in the placebo arm. ~9% of those in the 25 milligram arm had to discontinue treatment because of pruritus. Higher incidences of biliary/hepatic adverse events were observed in the 25 milligram arm compared to placebo too, but this increase was not statistically significant. Dose-dependent reductions in HDL cholesterol, known as the good cholesterol, was observed in this trial as well as other trials too. For those with high levels of cholesterol or cardiac issues, this is a big deal. One unfortunate aspect of NAFLD/NASH is that both conditions are tied to cardiovascular disease; there exists medical literature closely linking the two. There is little doubt in my mind that the FDA considers this aspect of the safety profile when weighing the risks and benefits of Ocaliva.
|ICPT||US Biotechs||US Market|
Return vs Industry: ICPT exceeded the US Biotechs industry which returned -30% over the past year.
Return vs Market: ICPT exceeded the US Market which returned -23.1% over the past year.
|ICPT Average Weekly Movement||11.7%|
|Biotechs Industry Average Movement||11.1%|
|Market Average Movement||6.9%|
|10% most volatile stocks in US Market||15.8%|
|10% least volatile stocks in US Market||2.8%|
Stable Share Price: ICPT is more volatile than 75% of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 12% a week.
Volatility Over Time: ICPT's weekly volatility (12%) has been stable over the past year, but is still higher than 75% of US stocks.
About the Company
Intercept Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the development and commercialization of therapeutics to treat progressive non-viral liver diseases in the United States, Europe, and Canada. The company markets Ocaliva, a farnesoid X receptor agonist used for the treatment of primary biliary cholangitis in combination with ursodeoxycholic acid in adults. It is also developing Ocaliva for various indications, including nonalcoholic steatohepatitis; and other product candidates in various stages of clinical and preclinical development.
Intercept Pharmaceuticals Fundamentals Summary
|ICPT fundamental statistics|
Is ICPT overvalued?See Fair Value and valuation analysis
Earnings & Revenue
|ICPT income statement (TTM)|
|Cost of Revenue||US$3.09m|
Last Reported Earnings
Jun 30, 2022
Next Earnings Date
|Earnings per share (EPS)||-1.71|
|Net Profit Margin||-19.06%|
How did ICPT perform over the long term?See historical performance and comparison
Is ICPT undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?
Valuation Score 5/6
Price-To-Sales vs Peers
Price-To-Sales vs Industry
Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Key Valuation Metric
Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ICPT?
Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.
|What is ICPT's n/a Ratio?|
Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers
How does ICPT's PS Ratio compare to its peers?
|ICPT PS Ratio vs Peers|
|Company||PS||Estimated Growth||Market Cap|
BCYC Bicycle Therapeutics
VNDA Vanda Pharmaceuticals
SGMO Sangamo Therapeutics
SRNE Sorrento Therapeutics
ICPT Intercept Pharmaceuticals
Price-To-Sales vs Peers: ICPT is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.7x) compared to the peer average (16.6x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry
How does ICPT's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Biotechs Industry?
Price-To-Sales vs Industry: ICPT is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.7x) compared to the US Biotechs industry average (12.5x)
Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio
What is ICPT's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
|Current PS Ratio||1.7x|
|Fair PS Ratio||11.2x|
Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: ICPT is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (11.2x).
Share Price vs Fair Value
What is the Fair Price of ICPT when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.
Below Fair Value: ICPT ($15.24) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($268.09)
Significantly Below Fair Value: ICPT is trading below fair value by more than 20%.
Analyst Price Targets
What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?
Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.
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How is Intercept Pharmaceuticals forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 16 analysts?
Future Growth Score5/6
Future Growth Score 5/6
Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Forecasted annual earnings growth
Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts
Analyst Future Growth Forecasts
Earnings vs Savings Rate: ICPT is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered faster growth than the savings rate (1.9%).
Earnings vs Market: ICPT is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered above average market growth.
High Growth Earnings: ICPT is expected to become profitable in the next 3 years.
Revenue vs Market: ICPT's revenue (25% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (7.6% per year).
High Growth Revenue: ICPT's revenue (25% per year) is forecast to grow faster than 20% per year.
Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts
Future Return on Equity
Future ROE: Insufficient data to determine if ICPT's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time
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How has Intercept Pharmaceuticals performed over the past 5 years?
Past Performance Score0/6
Past Performance Score 0/6
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings vs Industry
Historical annual earnings growth
Earnings and Revenue History
Quality Earnings: ICPT is currently unprofitable.
Growing Profit Margin: ICPT is currently unprofitable.
Past Earnings Growth Analysis
Earnings Trend: ICPT is unprofitable, but has reduced losses over the past 5 years at a rate of 20.5% per year.
Accelerating Growth: Unable to compare ICPT's earnings growth over the past year to its 5-year average as it is currently unprofitable
Earnings vs Industry: ICPT is unprofitable, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the Biotechs industry (29.2%).
Return on Equity
High ROE: ICPT's liabilities exceed its assets, so it is difficult to calculate its Return on Equity.
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How is Intercept Pharmaceuticals's financial position?
Financial Health Score2/6
Financial Health Score 2/6
Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Stable Cash Runway
Forecast Cash Runway
Financial Position Analysis
Short Term Liabilities: ICPT has negative shareholder equity, which is a more serious situation than short term assets not covering short term liabilities.
Long Term Liabilities: ICPT has negative shareholder equity, which is a more serious situation than short term assets not covering long term liabilities.
Debt to Equity History and Analysis
Debt Level: ICPT has negative shareholder equity, which is a more serious situation than a high debt level.
Reducing Debt: ICPT's has negative shareholder equity, so we do not need to check if its debt has reduced over time.
Cash Runway Analysis
For companies that have on average been loss making in the past we assess whether they have at least 1 year of cash runway.
Stable Cash Runway: Whilst unprofitable ICPT has sufficient cash runway for more than 3 years if it maintains its current positive free cash flow level.
Forecast Cash Runway: ICPT is unprofitable but has sufficient cash runway for more than 3 years, due to free cash flow being positive and growing by 23.3% per year.
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What is Intercept Pharmaceuticals's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?
Dividend Score 0/6
Cash Flow Coverage
Dividend Yield vs Market
Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate ICPT's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.
High Dividend: Unable to evaluate ICPT's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.
Stability and Growth of Payments
Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if ICPT's dividends per share have been stable in the past.
Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if ICPT's dividend payments have been increasing.
Earnings Payout to Shareholders
Earnings Coverage: Insufficient data to calculate payout ratio to determine if its dividend payments are covered by earnings.
Cash Payout to Shareholders
Cash Flow Coverage: Unable to calculate sustainability of dividends as ICPT has not reported any payouts.
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How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?
Average management tenure
Jerry Durso (54 yo)
Mr. Jerome B. Durso, also known as Jerry, has been President and Chief Executive Officer of Intercept Pharmaceuticals, Inc. since January 1, 2021 and serves as its Director since May 27, 2021. Mr. Durso se...
CEO Compensation Analysis
Compensation vs Market: Jerry's total compensation ($USD7.87M) is above average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD4.14M).
Compensation vs Earnings: Jerry's compensation has increased whilst the company is unprofitable.
Experienced Management: ICPT's management team is not considered experienced ( 1.6 years average tenure), which suggests a new team.
Experienced Board: ICPT's board of directors are considered experienced (8.4 years average tenure).
Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?
Insider Trading Volume
Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.
Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have been diluted in the past year, with total shares outstanding growing by 23.9%.
|Ownership||Name||Shares||Current Value||Change %||Portfolio %|
Intercept Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s employee growth, exchange listings and data sources
- Name: Intercept Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
- Ticker: ICPT
- Exchange: NasdaqGS
- Founded: 2002
- Industry: Biotechnology
- Sector: Pharmaceuticals & Biotech
- Implied Market Cap: US$626.782m
- Shares outstanding: 41.13m
- Website: https://www.interceptpharma.com
Number of Employees
- Intercept Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
- 10 Hudson Yards
- 37th Floor
- New York
- New York
- United States
|Ticker||Exchange||Primary Security||Security Type||Country||Currency||Listed on|
|ICPT||NasdaqGS (Nasdaq Global Select)||Yes||Common Stock||US||USD||Oct 2012|
|I4P||DB (Deutsche Boerse AG)||Yes||Common Stock||DE||EUR||Oct 2012|
|ICPT *||BMV (Bolsa Mexicana de Valores)||Yes||Common Stock||MX||MXN||Oct 2012|
Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
|Data||Last Updated (UTC time)|
|Company Analysis||2022/09/24 00:00|
|End of Day Share Price||2022/09/23 00:00|
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.