Harmony Biosciences Holdings (NasdaqGM:HRMY) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of HRMY when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

HRMY ($46.34) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] ($352.68)

HRMY fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	3/6
Future Growth	5/6
Past Performance	5/6
Financial Health	5/6
Dividends	0/6

HRMY Stock Overview

Harmony Biosciences Holdings, Inc., a commercial-stage pharmaceutical company, develops and commercializes therapies for patients with rare neurological disorders in the United States.

Rewards

Trading at 86.9% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 44.6% per year

Earnings grew by 238% over the past year

Risk Analysis

Large one-off items impacting financial results

Shareholders have been diluted in the past year

Harmony Biosciences Holdings Competitors

Corcept Therapeutics

NasdaqCM:CORT

US$2.9b

Prestige Consumer Healthcare

NYSE:PBH

US$2.8b

Pacira BioSciences

NasdaqGS:PCRX

US$2.7b

Bausch Health Companies

NYSE:BHC

US$2.1b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Harmony Biosciences Holdings
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	US$46.34
52 Week High	US$57.13
52 Week Low	US$31.12
Beta	0
1 Month Change	-11.92%
3 Month Change	12.12%
1 Year Change	46.74%
3 Year Change	n/a
5 Year Change	n/a
Change since IPO	25.21%

Recent News & Updates

Aug 05

We Ran A Stock Scan For Earnings Growth And Harmony Biosciences Holdings (NASDAQ:HRMY) Passed With Ease

It's common for many investors, especially those who are inexperienced, to buy shares in companies with a good story...

Aug 02

Harmony Biosciences Non-GAAP EPS of $0.57 misses by $0.06, revenue of $107M beats by $6.25M

Harmony Biosciences press release (NASDAQ:HRMY): Q2 Non-GAAP EPS of $0.57 misses by $0.06. Revenue of $107M (+44.9% Y/Y) beats by $6.25M.

Shareholder Returns

	HRMY	US Pharmaceuticals	US Market
7D	-9.0%	1.0%	1.4%
1Y	46.7%	-0.08%	-8.4%

Return vs Industry: HRMY exceeded the US Pharmaceuticals industry which returned 0.6% over the past year.

Return vs Market: HRMY exceeded the US Market which returned -9% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is HRMY's price volatile compared to industry and market?
HRMY volatility
HRMY Average Weekly Movement	7.5%
Pharmaceuticals Industry Average Movement	12.2%
Market Average Movement	7.6%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market	17.1%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market	3.1%

Stable Share Price: HRMY is not significantly more volatile than the rest of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 7% a week.

Volatility Over Time: HRMY's weekly volatility (7%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
2017	180	John Jacobs	https://www.harmonybiosciences.com

Harmony Biosciences Holdings, Inc., a commercial-stage pharmaceutical company, develops and commercializes therapies for patients with rare neurological disorders in the United States. Its product, WAKIX is a medication for the treatment of excessive daytime sleepiness in adult patients with narcolepsy. The company was formerly known as Harmony Biosciences II, Inc. and changed its name to Harmony Biosciences Holdings, Inc. in February 2020.

Harmony Biosciences Holdings Fundamentals Summary

How do Harmony Biosciences Holdings's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
HRMY fundamental statistics
Market Cap	US$2.74b
Earnings (TTM)	US$58.11m
Revenue (TTM)	US$364.29m

47.2x

P/E Ratio

7.5x

P/S Ratio

Is HRMY overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
HRMY income statement (TTM)
Revenue	US$364.29m
Cost of Revenue	US$66.06m
Gross Profit	US$298.23m
Other Expenses	US$240.12m
Earnings	US$58.11m

Last Reported Earnings

Jun 30, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	0.98
Gross Margin	81.87%
Net Profit Margin	15.95%
Debt/Equity Ratio	77.8%

How did HRMY perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is HRMY undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for HRMY?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for HRMY. This is calculated by dividing HRMY's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is HRMY's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	US$2.74b

HRMY key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	7.4x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	20.5x
PEG Ratio	1.1x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does HRMY's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

HRMY PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for HRMY vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	39x
CORT Corcept Therapeutics	26.1x	29.7%	US$2.9b
PBH Prestige Consumer Healthcare	13.8x	6.7%	US$2.8b
PCRX Pacira BioSciences	67.9x	17.0%	US$2.7b
BHC Bausch Health Companies	48.4x	164.1%	US$2.1b
HRMY Harmony Biosciences Holdings	47.2x	44.6%	US$2.7b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: HRMY is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (47.2x) compared to the peer average (39x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does HRMY's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Pharmaceuticals Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: HRMY is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (47.2x) compared to the US Pharmaceuticals industry average (16.1x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is HRMY's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

HRMY PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	47.2x
Fair PE Ratio	35.7x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: HRMY is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (47.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (35.7x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of HRMY when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: HRMY ($46.34) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($352.68)

Significantly Below Fair Value: HRMY is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Future Growth

How is Harmony Biosciences Holdings forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 7 analysts?

Future Growth Score

5/6

Future Growth Score 5/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

44.6%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: HRMY's forecast earnings growth (44.6% per year) is above the savings rate (1.9%).

Earnings vs Market: HRMY's earnings (44.6% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the US market (14.4% per year).

High Growth Earnings: HRMY's earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: HRMY's revenue (28.9% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (7.8% per year).

High Growth Revenue: HRMY's revenue (28.9% per year) is forecast to grow faster than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: Insufficient data to determine if HRMY's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time

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Past Performance

How has Harmony Biosciences Holdings performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

5/6

Past Performance Score 5/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

89.1%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: HRMY has a large one-off loss of $26.1M impacting its June 30 2022 financial results.

Growing Profit Margin: HRMY's current net profit margins (16%) are higher than last year (7.3%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: HRMY has become profitable over the past 5 years, growing earnings by 89.1% per year.

Accelerating Growth: HRMY's earnings growth over the past year (238%) exceeds its 5-year average (89.1% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: HRMY earnings growth over the past year (238%) exceeded the Pharmaceuticals industry 11.5%.

Return on Equity

High ROE: HRMY's Return on Equity (23.6%) is considered high.

Discover strong past performing companies

Financial Health

How is Harmony Biosciences Holdings's financial position?

Financial Health Score

5/6

Financial Health Score 5/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: HRMY's short term assets ($322.7M) exceed its short term liabilities ($65.8M).

Long Term Liabilities: HRMY's short term assets ($322.7M) exceed its long term liabilities ($192.8M).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: HRMY has more cash than its total debt.

Reducing Debt: Insufficient data to determine if HRMY's debt to equity ratio has reduced over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: HRMY's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (68.1%).

Interest Coverage: HRMY's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (6.2x coverage).

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is Harmony Biosciences Holdings's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

0/6

Dividend Score 0/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Cash Flow Coverage

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate HRMY's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate HRMY's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if HRMY's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if HRMY's dividend payments have been increasing.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: Insufficient data to calculate payout ratio to determine if its dividend payments are covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: Unable to calculate sustainability of dividends as HRMY has not reported any payouts.

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Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

3.9yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

John Jacobs (55 yo)

4.17yrs

Tenure

US$885,554

Compensation

Mr. John Charles Jacobs, MBA, serves as President, Chief Executive Officer and Director of Harmony Biosciences, LLC. He serves as Director at Life Sciences Pennsylvania since May 6, 2021. He served as Chai...

CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: John's total compensation ($USD885.55K) is below average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD6.64M).

Compensation vs Earnings: John's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year.

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: HRMY's management team is considered experienced (3.9 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: HRMY's board of directors are considered experienced (4.8 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have been diluted in the past year, with total shares outstanding growing by 3.8%.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/08/18 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/08/18 00:00
Earnings	2022/06/30
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31