Geron (NasdaqGS:GERN) - Share price, News & Analysis

GERN fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	3/6
Future Growth	2/6
Past Performance	0/6
Financial Health	5/6
Dividends	0/6

GERN Stock Overview

Geron Corporation, a late-stage clinical biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the development and commercialization of therapeutics for myeloid hematologic malignancies.

Rewards

Trading at 79.3% below our estimate of its fair value

Revenue is forecast to grow 73.8% per year

Risk Analysis

Currently unprofitable and not forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years

Volatile share price over the past 3 months

Shareholders have been diluted in the past year

Does not have meaningful revenue ($1M)

Geron Competitors

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Geron
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	US$1.36
52 Week High	US$1.74
52 Week Low	US$0.99
Beta	0.99
1 Month Change	7.09%
3 Month Change	14.29%
1 Year Change	-10.53%
3 Year Change	-10.53%
5 Year Change	-51.94%
Change since IPO	-82.45%

Recent News & Updates

May 03

Geron: TLR Is 10 Months Away

Top line results or TLR from the IMerge phase 3 trial will be out by January 2023. This is a confirmatory trial that may lead to an NDA, if successful. The CEO says he can't wait. Guess what, neither can we.

Shareholder Returns

	GERN	US Biotechs	US Market
7D	14.3%	11.9%	4.0%
1Y	-10.5%	-25.1%	-20.5%

Return vs Industry: GERN exceeded the US Biotechs industry which returned -26.6% over the past year.

Return vs Market: GERN exceeded the US Market which returned -20.8% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is GERN's price volatile compared to industry and market?
GERN volatility
GERN Average Weekly Movement	14.9%
Biotechs Industry Average Movement	12.9%
Market Average Movement	7.9%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market	16.5%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market	3.1%

Stable Share Price: GERN is more volatile than 75% of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 15% a week.

Volatility Over Time: GERN's weekly volatility (15%) has been stable over the past year, but is still higher than 75% of US stocks.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1990	71	Chip Scarlett	https://www.geron.com

Geron Corporation, a late-stage clinical biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the development and commercialization of therapeutics for myeloid hematologic malignancies. It develops imetelstat, a telomerase inhibitor that is in Phase 3 clinical trials, which inhibits the uncontrolled proliferation of malignant stem and progenitor cells in hematologic myeloid malignancies for the treatment of low or intermediate-1 risk myelodysplastic syndromes and intermediate-2 or high-risk myelofibrosis. The company was incorporated in 1990 and is headquartered in Foster City, California.

Geron Fundamentals Summary

How do Geron's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
GERN fundamental statistics
Market Cap	US$513.33m
Earnings (TTM)	-US$118.39m
Revenue (TTM)	US$1.38m

372.6x

P/S Ratio

-4.3x

P/E Ratio

Is GERN overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
GERN income statement (TTM)
Revenue	US$1.38m
Cost of Revenue	US$3.60m
Gross Profit	-US$2.22m
Other Expenses	US$116.17m
Earnings	-US$118.39m

Last Reported Earnings

Mar 31, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	-0.31
Gross Margin	-160.84%
Net Profit Margin	-8,584.92%
Debt/Equity Ratio	51.5%

How did GERN perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is GERN undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

Price-To-Book vs Peers
Price-To-Book vs Industry
Price-To-Book vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
PEG Ratio

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for GERN?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for GERN. This is calculated by dividing GERN's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is GERN's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	US$513.33m

GERN key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	283.5x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	-3.4x
PEG Ratio	n/a

Price to Book Ratio vs Peers

How does GERN's PB Ratio compare to its peers?

GERN PB Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PB ratio for GERN vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PB	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	13.3x

Price-To-Book vs Peers: GERN is good value based on its Price-To-Book Ratio (5.3x) compared to the peer average (13.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does GERN's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the U.S. Biotechs Industry?

Price-To-Book vs Industry: GERN is expensive based on its Price-To-Book Ratio (5.3x) compared to the US Biotechs industry average (1.5x)

Price to Book Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is GERN's PB Ratio compared to its Fair PB Ratio? This is the expected PB Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

GERN PB Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PB Ratio	5.3x
Fair PB Ratio	n/a

Price-To-Book vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate GERN's Price-To-Book Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of GERN when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: GERN ($1.36) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($6.56)

Significantly Below Fair Value: GERN is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate GERN's PEG Ratio to determine if it is good value.

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Future Growth

How is Geron forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 5 analysts?

Future Growth Score

2/6

Future Growth Score 2/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

51.9%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: GERN is forecast to remain unprofitable over the next 3 years.

Earnings vs Market: GERN is forecast to remain unprofitable over the next 3 years.

High Growth Earnings: GERN is forecast to remain unprofitable over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: GERN's revenue (73.8% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (8.3% per year).

High Growth Revenue: GERN's revenue (73.8% per year) is forecast to grow faster than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: Insufficient data to determine if GERN's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time

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Past Performance

How has Geron performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

0/6

Past Performance Score 0/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

-34.6%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: GERN is currently unprofitable.

Growing Profit Margin: GERN is currently unprofitable.

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: GERN is unprofitable, and losses have increased over the past 5 years at a rate of 34.6% per year.

Accelerating Growth: Unable to compare GERN's earnings growth over the past year to its 5-year average as it is currently unprofitable

Earnings vs Industry: GERN is unprofitable, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the Biotechs industry (96.9%).

Return on Equity

High ROE: GERN has a negative Return on Equity (-121.44%), as it is currently unprofitable.

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Financial Health

How is Geron's financial position?

Financial Health Score

5/6

Financial Health Score 5/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Stable Cash Runway
Forecast Cash Runway

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: GERN's short term assets ($175.9M) exceed its short term liabilities ($46.6M).

Long Term Liabilities: GERN's short term assets ($175.9M) exceed its long term liabilities ($54.3M).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: GERN has more cash than its total debt.

Reducing Debt: Insufficient data to determine if GERN's debt to equity ratio has reduced over the past 5 years.

Balance Sheet

Cash Runway Analysis

For companies that have on average been loss making in the past we assess whether they have at least 1 year of cash runway.

Stable Cash Runway: GERN has sufficient cash runway for more than a year based on its current free cash flow.

Forecast Cash Runway: GERN has sufficient cash runway for 1.4 years if free cash flow continues to reduce at historical rates of 31.7% each year.

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Dividend

What is Geron current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

0/6

Dividend Score 0/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Future Dividend Coverage

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate GERN's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate GERN's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if GERN's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if GERN's dividend payments have been increasing.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: Insufficient data to calculate payout ratio to determine if its dividend payments are covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: Unable to calculate sustainability of dividends as GERN has not reported any payouts.

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Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

3.4yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Chip Scarlett (70 yo)

10.75yrs

Tenure

US$2,056,987

Compensation

Dr. John A. Scarlett, also known as Chip, M.D., has been the Chief Executive Officer of Geron Corporation since joining in September 2011 and has been its President since January 5, 2012. Dr. Scarlett is C...

CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Chip's total compensation ($USD2.06M) is about average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD2.77M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Chip's compensation has increased whilst the company is unprofitable.

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: GERN's management team is considered experienced (3.4 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: GERN's board of directors are seasoned and experienced ( 10.3 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have been diluted in the past year, with total shares outstanding growing by 18.5%.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/06/23 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/06/23 00:00
Earnings	2022/03/31
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31