Why Collegium Pharmaceutical (COLL) Is Up 14.1% After Surging Q3 Profits and Raised 2025 Revenue Guidance

• Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc. reported that for the third quarter ended September 30, 2025, net income rose to US$31.51 million from US$9.34 million a year earlier, and raised full-year 2025 net product revenue guidance to US$775–785 million.
• This combination of substantially higher quarterly profits and increased revenue projections provides an updated view of the company's financial momentum and outlook.
• Given the boost in quarterly earnings and upgraded revenue guidance, we'll assess how these results influence Collegium's growth and margin prospects.

Explore 27 top quantum computing companies leading the revolution in next-gen technology and shaping the future with breakthroughs in quantum algorithms, superconducting qubits, and cutting-edge research.

Collegium Pharmaceutical Investment Narrative Recap

If you’re considering Collegium Pharmaceutical, you need to believe in the durability of its pain portfolio, especially as it benefits from strong quarter-to-quarter earnings acceleration and an improved full-year revenue outlook. While the latest results reinforce short-term momentum and support near-term growth catalysts, the key risk, future patent expirations leading to competition, remains unchanged and is not directly impacted by this news. Overall, the recent financial update affirms the main narrative without materially shifting the biggest risk or immediate catalyst for the business.

The company’s decision to raise its full-year net product revenue guidance to between US$775 million and US$785 million, following a sharp increase in third-quarter profits, stands out among recent announcements. This move directly spotlights the importance of sustained product demand and reinforces investor focus on quarterly performance as the biggest near-term driver.

However, despite robust guidance and profit growth, investors should still keep in mind the implications of upcoming patent expiries and generic competition starting as early as 2027...

Read the full narrative on Collegium Pharmaceutical (it's free!)

Collegium Pharmaceutical's outlook projects $695.3 million in revenue and $131.4 million in earnings by 2028. This scenario assumes a 0.6% annual decline in revenue and a $95.1 million increase in earnings from the current level of $36.3 million.

Uncover how Collegium Pharmaceutical's forecasts yield a $46.80 fair value, in line with its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

The Simply Wall St Community’s three fair value estimates for Collegium range from US$46.80 to US$150.56 per share, reflecting divergent convictions. Product exclusivity risks remain a focal point, suggesting readers should explore how patent timelines may shape the next chapter for this company.

Explore 3 other fair value estimates on Collegium Pharmaceutical - why the stock might be worth over 3x more than the current price!

Build Your Own Collegium Pharmaceutical Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Collegium Pharmaceutical research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Collegium Pharmaceutical research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Collegium Pharmaceutical's overall financial health at a glance.

No Opportunity In Collegium Pharmaceutical?

These stocks are moving-our analysis flagged them today. Act fast before the price catches up:

• The end of cancer? These 29 emerging AI stocks are developing tech that will allow early identification of life changing diseases like cancer and Alzheimer's.
• Trump's oil boom is here - pipelines are primed to profit. Discover the 22 US stocks riding the wave.
• We've found 15 US stocks that are forecast to pay a dividend yield of over 6% next year. See the full list for free.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com