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It is a pleasure to report that the Chimerix, Inc. (NASDAQ:CMRX) is up 66% in the last quarter. But that doesn’t change the fact that the returns over the last half decade have been stomach churning. Like a ship taking on water, the share price has sunk 85% in that time. The recent bounce might mean the long decline is over, but we are not confident. The fundamental business performance will ultimately determine if the turnaround can be sustained.
While a drop like that is definitely a body blow, money isn’t as important as health and happiness.
Given that Chimerix didn’t make a profit in the last twelve months, we’ll focus on revenue growth to form a quick view of its business development. When a company doesn’t make profits, we’d generally expect to see good revenue growth. That’s because fast revenue growth can be easily extrapolated to forecast profits, often of considerable size.
In the last half decade, Chimerix saw its revenue increase by 2.5% per year. That’s far from impressive given all the money it is losing. It’s not so sure that share price crash of 31% per year is completely deserved, but the market is doubtless disappointed. We’d be pretty cautious about this one, although the sell-off may be too severe. We’d recommend focussing any further research on the likelihood of profitability in the foreseeable future, given the muted revenue growth.
It’s good to see that there was some significant insider buying in the last three months. That’s a positive. That said, we think earnings and revenue growth trends are even more important factors to consider. This free report showing analyst forecasts should help you form a view on Chimerix
A Different Perspective
Chimerix shareholders are down 25% for the year, but the market itself is up 6.9%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. However, the loss over the last year isn’t as bad as the 31% per annum loss investors have suffered over the last half decade. We would want clear information suggesting the company will grow, before taking the view that the share price will stabilize. It is all well and good that insiders have been buying shares, but we suggest you check here to see what price insiders were buying at.
Chimerix is not the only stock that insiders are buying. For those who like to find winning investments this free list of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.
We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at email@example.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.