Cidara Therapeutics Inc (NASDAQ:CDTX): Risks You Need To Consider Before Buying

If you’re interested in Cidara Therapeutics Inc (NASDAQ:CDTX), then you might want to consider its beta (a measure of share price volatility) in order to understand how the stock could impact your portfolio. Modern finance theory considers volatility to be a measure of risk, and there are two main types of price volatility. The first category is company specific volatility. This can be dealt with by limiting your exposure to any particular stock. The second sort is caused by the natural volatility of markets, overall. For example, certain macroeconomic events will impact (virtually) all stocks on the market.

Some stocks see their prices move in concert with the market. Others tend towards stronger, gentler or unrelated price movements. Beta can be a useful tool to understand how much a stock is influenced by market risk (volatility). However, Warren Buffett said ‘volatility is far from synonymous with risk’ in his 2014 letter to investors. So, while useful, beta is not the only metric to consider. To use beta as an investor, you must first understand that the overall market has a beta of one. A stock with a beta below one is either less volatile than the market, or more volatile but not corellated with the overall market. In comparison a stock with a beta of over one tends to be move in a similar direction to the market in the long term, but with greater changes in price.

Check out our latest analysis for Cidara Therapeutics

What does CDTX’s beta value mean to investors?

Given that it has a beta of 1.98, we can surmise that the Cidara Therapeutics share price has been fairly sensitive to market volatility (over the last 5 years). If this beta value holds true in the future, Cidara Therapeutics shares are likely to rise more than the market when the market is going up, but fall faster when the market is going down. Many would argue that beta is useful in position sizing, but fundamental metrics such as revenue and earnings are more important overall. You can see Cidara Therapeutics’s revenue and earnings in the image below.

NasdaqGM:CDTX Income Statement Export August 21st 18
NasdaqGM:CDTX Income Statement Export August 21st 18

Does CDTX’s size influence the expected beta?

With a market capitalisation of US$120.40m, Cidara Therapeutics is a very small company by global standards. It is quite likely to be unknown to most investors. Relatively few investors can influence the price of a smaller company, compared to a large company. This could explain the high beta value, in this case.

What this means for you:

Since Cidara Therapeutics has a reasonably high beta, it’s worth considering why it is so heavily influenced by broader market sentiment. For example, it might be a high growth stock or have a lot of operating leverage in its business model. In order to fully understand whether CDTX is a good investment for you, we also need to consider important company-specific fundamentals such as Cidara Therapeutics’s financial health and performance track record. I urge you to continue your research by taking a look at the following:

  1. Future Outlook: What are well-informed industry analysts predicting for CDTX’s future growth? Take a look at our free research report of analyst consensus for CDTX’s outlook.
  2. Past Track Record: Has CDTX been consistently performing well irrespective of the ups and downs in the market? Go into more detail in the past performance analysis and take a look at the free visual representations of CDTX’s historicals for more clarity.
  3. Other Interesting Stocks: It’s worth checking to see how CDTX measures up against other companies on valuation. You could start with this free list of prospective options.

To help readers see past the short term volatility of the financial market, we aim to bring you a long-term focused research analysis purely driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis does not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements.

The author is an independent contributor and at the time of publication had no position in the stocks mentioned. For errors that warrant correction please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com.