Today is shaping up negative for Bicycle Therapeutics plc (NASDAQ:BCYC) shareholders, with the analysts delivering a substantial negative revision to next year's forecasts. This report focused on revenue estimates, and it looks as though the consensus view of the business has become substantially more conservative.
Following the downgrade, the consensus from eight analysts covering Bicycle Therapeutics is for revenues of US$8.8m in 2021, implying a stressful 26% decline in sales compared to the last 12 months. Per-share losses are expected to explode, reaching US$2.84 per share. Yet before this consensus update, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$11m and losses of US$2.85 per share in 2021. So there's been quite a change-up of views after the recent consensus updates, with the analysts making a serious cut to their revenue forecasts while also making no real change to the loss per share numbers.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that sales are expected to reverse, with a forecast 21% annualised revenue decline to the end of 2021. That is a notable change from historical growth of 31% over the last three years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 18% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Bicycle Therapeutics is expected to lag the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
Unfortunately analysts also downgraded their revenue estimates, and industry data suggests that Bicycle Therapeutics' revenues are expected to grow slower than the wider market. Overall, given the drastic downgrade to next year's forecasts, we'd be feeling a little more wary of Bicycle Therapeutics going forwards.
After a downgrade like this, it's pretty clear that previous forecasts were too optimistic. What's more, we've spotted several possible issues with Bicycle Therapeutics' business, like dilutive stock issuance over the past year. For more information, you can click here to discover this and the 3 other risks we've identified.
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What are the risks and opportunities for Bicycle Therapeutics?
Revenue is forecast to grow 61.61% per year
Currently unprofitable and not forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years
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