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BCRX

BioCryst Pharmaceuticals NasdaqGS:BCRX Stock Report

Last Price

US$14.81

Market Cap

US$2.7b

7D

4.2%

1Y

-3.0%

Updated

15 Aug, 2022

Data

Company Financials +
BCRX fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation4/6
Future Growth5/6
Past Performance0/6
Financial Health1/6
Dividends0/6

BCRX Stock Overview

BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a biotechnology company, discovers novel, oral, and small-molecule medicines.

BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Competitors

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for BioCryst Pharmaceuticals
Historical stock prices
Current Share PriceUS$14.81
52 Week HighUS$19.99
52 Week LowUS$7.61
Beta2.2
1 Month Change27.12%
3 Month Change66.40%
1 Year Change-3.01%
3 Year Change452.61%
5 Year Change251.78%
Change since IPO127.85%

Recent News & Updates

Aug 03

BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Q2 2022 Earnings Preview

BioCryst Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:BCRX) is scheduled to announce Q2 earnings results on Thursday, August 4th, before market open. The consensus EPS Estimate is -$0.35 (-45.8% Y/Y) and the consensus Revenue Estimate is $63.83M (+27.7% Y/Y). Over the last 1 year, BCRX has beaten EPS estimates 25% of the time and has beaten revenue estimates 50% of the time. Over the last 3 months, EPS estimates have seen 4 upward revisions and 3 downward. Revenue estimates have seen 5 upward revisions and 5 downward.

Jul 25

BioCryst Pharmaceuticals: Waiting For Clarity

Shares of rare disease biopharma BioCryst Pharmaceuticals are down some 40% since announcing a voluntary halt to three trials involving its BCX9930 program on April 8, 2022. The FDA has subsequently stepped in with a partial hold on the studies with no news expected on next steps until the end of 3Q22. With a current market cap of $2.05 billion and management expecting its plasma kallikrein inhibitor Orladeyo to generate peak sales of $1 billion, BioCryst merited a deeper dive. A full investment analysis follows in the paragraphs below. Civilization is a hopeless race to discover remedies for the evils it produces.”― Rousseau Today, we take an in-depth look at a biotech concern that comes up from time to time on comments from Seeking Alpha followers and has been in the news recently. A full analysis follows below. Seeking Alpha Company Overview BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (BCRX) is a Durham, North Carolina based biopharma concern focused on the development of therapies for rare diseases where enzymes factor prominently in their pathology. The company has two approved therapies and three product candidates, although its prospects revolve around two assets: approved Orladeyo for the treatment of hereditary angioedema [HAE] and clinical program BCX9930, which is targeting several complement-mediated diseases. BioCryst was formed in 1986 and went public in 1994, raising net proceeds of $15.2 million at $6 a share. The stock trades for around $11.00 a share, equating to a market cap approaching $2.1 billion. Products Orladeyo. The preponderance of the company’s sales are generated from Orladeyo (berotralstat), an oral, once-daily plasma kallikrein inhibitor for the prevention of HAE attacks in patients 12 years and older. HAE is a severely debilitating rare genetic condition characterized by swelling in multiple locations such as the hand, feet, intestines, face, and airway from excess fluid trapped inside the body’s tissues. The potentially fatal condition’s prevalence is approximately 1 in 50,000. Plasma kallikrein is responsible for the production of bradykinin, which mediates acute swelling attacks in HAE patients. Although there are eight other approved HAE therapies, all of them require either subcutaneous self-administration or intravenous injection, providing oral Orladeyo with a significant advantage. However, it should be noted that KalVista (KALV) has two oral kallikrein inhibitors in Phase 2 and Phase 3 trials for HAE. June Company Presentation Approved in the U.S. in December 2020, Orladeyo accounted for FY21 revenue of $121.9 million – 89% of the company’s FY21 product sales – and is expected to generate no less than $250 million in FY22, with peak global sales expected to reach $1 billion. It is also approved for sale in the EU, UK, Japan, and the UAE. Peramivir. The balance of its product revenue is produced by its peramivir injection, which received FDA approval in 2014 for the treatment of acute uncomplicated influenza in patients who have been symptomatic for no more than two days. Sold to the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services under the brand name RAPIVAB and internationally under several brand names, worldwide FY21 peramivir sales tallied $14.5 million, or 11% of total. Pipeline BCX9930. Although the Orladeyo launch is off to a solid start, most of the excitement concerning BioCryst has involved its twice-daily, oral Factor D inhibitor BCX9930, which is undergoing clinical assessment for complement-mediated diseases. For those unaware, the complement system is part of the body’s immune system and is responsible for aiding in the elimination of microbes and damaged cells through three pathways. Comprised of proteins produced by the liver, overactivation of the complement system can cause severe immune and inflammatory disorders. Factor D is an essential enzyme in arguably the most important of the three pathways of the complement system – the alternative pathway – and as such has been chosen as an initial target. June Company Presentation BCX9930, which has been advertised by BioCryst’s management as a pipeline unto itself, was being investigated as a monotherapy in a pivotal randomized, placebo-controlled study (REDEEM-2) for patients with paroxysmal nocturnal hemoglobinuria (PNH), a disease characterized by the destruction of red blood cells by the complement system, not currently on complement inhibitor therapy. Primary endpoint is change from baseline in hemoglobin at week 12. REDEEM-2 enrolled its first patient in November 2021. This was followed in January 2022 with first patient enrollment in another pivotal trial (REDEEM-1) that is assessing BCX9930 in PNH patients who had an inadequate response to a C5 inhibitor. The primary endpoint is also change from baseline in hemoglobin, assessed at week 12 through week 24. BioCryst also entered BCX9930 into a proof-of concept trial [RENEW], evaluating it in the treatment of three renal complement-mediated diseases (C3 glomerulopathy, immunoglobulin A nephropathy (IgAN), and primary membranous nephropathy), with the first patient enrolling in February 2022. The primary endpoint of RENEW for each of the three parallel cohorts is percent change from baseline in 24-hour urine protein-to-creatinine ratio at week 24. All three studies were slated to be readout in 2H23. However, on April 8, 2022, BioCryst announced a voluntary halt to enrollment in all three trials due to elevated serum creatinine levels in three patients in the REDEEM trials. Elevated serum creatinine levels are indicative of kidney dysfunction and/or injury. Subsequent to the voluntary enrollment stoppage, the FDA stepped in and placed the BCX9930 program on partial clinical hold. Management believes the culprits are the 500 mg twice daily dosing and the immediate start of patients on that dosage without titration. June Company Presentation It appears as if a 400 mg dosage will be proposed to regulators as remediation but it is anyone’s guess as to whether BioCryst can fully resume these trials, putting it further behind AstraZeneca’s (AZN) two oral Factor D inhibitors, which are in Phase 3 (PNH) and Phase 2 trials (lupus nephritis and IgAN). All three patients in question have demonstrated improvement, but two have discontinued the study. Although no newcomers are being enrolled, those already enrolled will continue to receive therapy. A decision from regulators regarding trial resumption is expected by the end of 3Q22. First news of the halt pummeled shares of BCRX, losing 38% of their value at $11.12. BCX9250. Beyond BCX9930, BioCryst owns BCX9250, an activin receptor-like kinase-2 (ALK-2) inhibitor that is undergoing evaluation for the treatment of fibrodysplasia ossificans progressiva (FOP), a dreadful ultra-rare disease characterized by irregular bone formation outside the normal skeleton – in muscles, tendons, and soft tissue – resulting in deformation and early mortality. FOP afflicts one in two million worldwide and has no FDA-approved therapies. However, French pharma Ipsen filed (and subsequently withdrew) an NDA for its retinoic acid receptor gamma agonist palovarotene and has an ALK-2 inhibitor in Phase 2 development. To date, BCX9250 has completed a Phase 1 trial in healthy subjects with next steps to be determined. Balance Sheet & Analyst Commentary Although the company held cash and investments of $443.5 million as of March 31, 2022, management projected operating expenses of $460 million in FY22, placing even greater pressure on Orladeyo to perform to expectations. It will be a race to see if BioCryst doesn’t have to tap the equity markets for more financing. To shore up its balance sheet, the company raised $350 million in November 2021 by selling additional royalty streams on Orladeyo and on its now uncertain Factor D franchise to Royalty Pharma and Canadian pension plan OMERS, as well as 3.85 million shares of BCRX to Royalty Pharma. The bottom line: royalty payments will ramp to 17% on the first $350 million generated on Orladeyo sales in the U.S. as well as certain EU markets and 10.5% on the next $200 million in sales by 4Q23. The company has debt of $146.4 million and $75 million available on an existing credit facility.

Shareholder Returns

BCRXUS BiotechsUS Market
7D4.2%1.4%3.6%
1Y-3.0%-19.6%-9.6%

Return vs Industry: BCRX exceeded the US Biotechs industry which returned -21.7% over the past year.

Return vs Market: BCRX exceeded the US Market which returned -10.2% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is BCRX's price volatile compared to industry and market?
BCRX volatility
BCRX Average Weekly Movement10.2%
Biotechs Industry Average Movement12.6%
Market Average Movement7.7%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market16.9%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market3.2%

Stable Share Price: BCRX is not significantly more volatile than the rest of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 10% a week.

Volatility Over Time: BCRX's weekly volatility (10%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

FoundedEmployeesCEOWebsite
1986358Jon Stonehousehttps://www.biocryst.com

BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a biotechnology company, discovers novel, oral, and small-molecule medicines. The company markets peramivir injection, an intravenous neuraminidase inhibitor for the treatment of acute uncomplicated influenza under the RAPIVAB, RAPIACTA, and PERAMIFLU names; and ORLADEYO, an oral serine protease inhibitor to treat hereditary angioedema. It is also developing BCX9930, an oral factor D inhibitor, which is in Phase II clinical trial for complement-mediated diseases; BCX9250, an oral activin receptor-like kinase-2 inhibitor that is in Phase I clinical trial to treat fibrodysplasia ossificans progressiva; and Galidesivir, a RNA dependent-RNA polymerase inhibitor, which is in Phase I clinical trial to treat various RNA viruses, including Marburg, Yellow Fever, Ebola, and Zika.

BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Fundamentals Summary

How do BioCryst Pharmaceuticals's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
BCRX fundamental statistics
Market CapUS$2.72b
Earnings (TTM)-US$209.63m
Revenue (TTM)US$203.61m

13.5x

P/S Ratio

-13.1x

P/E Ratio

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
BCRX income statement (TTM)
RevenueUS$203.61m
Cost of RevenueUS$242.37m
Gross Profit-US$38.76m
Other ExpensesUS$170.87m
Earnings-US$209.63m

Last Reported Earnings

Jun 30, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)-1.13
Gross Margin-19.04%
Net Profit Margin-102.96%
Debt/Equity Ratio-291.8%

How did BCRX perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison
We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is BCRX undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for BCRX?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

BCRX key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue14.4x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA-16.3x
PEG Ration/a

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does BCRX's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

BCRX PS Ratio vs Peers
The above table shows the PS ratio for BCRX vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyPSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average19x
FATE Fate Therapeutics
51.2x42.9%US$3.5b
NVAX Novavax
2.6x-9.1%US$3.2b
GBT Global Blood Therapeutics
19.3x32.5%US$4.5b
RGNX REGENXBIO
3x11.7%US$1.4b
BCRX BioCryst Pharmaceuticals
13.5x23.4%US$2.7b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: BCRX is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (13.5x) compared to the peer average (19x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does BCRX's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Biotechs Industry?

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: BCRX is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (13.5x) compared to the US Biotechs industry average (17.2x)


Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is BCRX's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

BCRX PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio13.5x
Fair PS Ratio4.6x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: BCRX is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (13.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (4.6x).


Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of BCRX when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: BCRX ($14.81) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($67.61)

Significantly Below Fair Value: BCRX is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.


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Future Growth

How is BioCryst Pharmaceuticals forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 9 analysts?

Future Growth Score

5/6

Future Growth Score 5/6

  • Earnings vs Savings Rate

  • Earnings vs Market

  • High Growth Earnings

  • Revenue vs Market

  • High Growth Revenue

  • Future ROE


71.6%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts


Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: BCRX is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered faster growth than the savings rate (1.9%).

Earnings vs Market: BCRX is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered above average market growth.

High Growth Earnings: BCRX is expected to become profitable in the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: BCRX's revenue (23.4% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (7.9% per year).

High Growth Revenue: BCRX's revenue (23.4% per year) is forecast to grow faster than 20% per year.


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: Insufficient data to determine if BCRX's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time


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Past Performance

How has BioCryst Pharmaceuticals performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

0/6

Past Performance Score 0/6

  • Quality Earnings

  • Growing Profit Margin

  • Earnings Trend

  • Accelerating Growth

  • Earnings vs Industry

  • High ROE


-26.2%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: BCRX is currently unprofitable.

Growing Profit Margin: BCRX is currently unprofitable.


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: BCRX is unprofitable, and losses have increased over the past 5 years at a rate of 26.2% per year.

Accelerating Growth: Unable to compare BCRX's earnings growth over the past year to its 5-year average as it is currently unprofitable

Earnings vs Industry: BCRX is unprofitable, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the Biotechs industry (24.5%).


Return on Equity

High ROE: BCRX's liabilities exceed its assets, so it is difficult to calculate its Return on Equity.


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Financial Health

How is BioCryst Pharmaceuticals's financial position?

Financial Health Score

1/6

Financial Health Score 1/6

  • Short Term Liabilities

  • Long Term Liabilities

  • Debt Level

  • Reducing Debt

  • Stable Cash Runway

  • Forecast Cash Runway

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: BCRX has negative shareholder equity, which is a more serious situation than short term assets not covering short term liabilities.

Long Term Liabilities: BCRX has negative shareholder equity, which is a more serious situation than short term assets not covering long term liabilities.


Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: BCRX has negative shareholder equity, which is a more serious situation than a high debt level.

Reducing Debt: BCRX's has negative shareholder equity, so we do not need to check if its debt has reduced over time.


Balance Sheet


Cash Runway Analysis

For companies that have on average been loss making in the past we assess whether they have at least 1 year of cash runway.

Stable Cash Runway: BCRX has sufficient cash runway for more than a year based on its current free cash flow.

Forecast Cash Runway: Insufficient data to determine if BCRX has enough cash runway if its free cash flow continues to grow or shrink based on historical rates.


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Dividend

What is BioCryst Pharmaceuticals's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

0/6

Dividend Score 0/6

  • Notable Dividend

  • High Dividend

  • Stable Dividend

  • Growing Dividend

  • Earnings Coverage

  • Cash Flow Coverage

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate BCRX's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate BCRX's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.


Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if BCRX's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if BCRX's dividend payments have been increasing.


Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: Insufficient data to calculate payout ratio to determine if its dividend payments are covered by earnings.


Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: Unable to calculate sustainability of dividends as BCRX has not reported any payouts.


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Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

2.6yrs

Average management tenure


CEO

Jon Stonehouse (61 yo)

15.58yrs

Tenure

US$7,061,225

Compensation

Mr. Jon P. Stonehouse has been the Chief Executive Officer and Executive Director of BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc. at Shionogi & Co., Ltd. since joining on January 8, 2007 and also has been its President...


CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Jon's total compensation ($USD7.06M) is about average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD6.53M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Jon's compensation has increased whilst the company is unprofitable.


Leadership Team

Experienced Management: BCRX's management team is considered experienced (2.6 years average tenure).


Board Members

Experienced Board: BCRX's board of directors are considered experienced (3.6 years average tenure).


Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?


Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.


Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have been diluted in the past year, with total shares outstanding growing by 4%.


Top Shareholders

Company Information

BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


Key Information

  • Name: BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
  • Ticker: BCRX
  • Exchange: NasdaqGS
  • Founded: 1986
  • Industry: Biotechnology
  • Sector: Pharmaceuticals & Biotech
  • Implied Market Cap: US$2.722b
  • Shares outstanding: 185.95m
  • Website: https://www.biocryst.com

Number of Employees


Location

  • BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
  • 4505 Emperor Boulevard
  • Suite 200
  • Durham
  • North Carolina
  • 27703
  • United States

Listings


Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2022/08/15 00:00
End of Day Share Price2022/08/15 00:00
Earnings2022/06/30
Annual Earnings2021/12/31


Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.