A Fresh Look at Ardelyx (ARDX) Valuation Following XPHOZAH Study Results and Upgraded Financial Outlook

Ardelyx (ARDX) shared new real-world results for its phosphate absorption inhibitor XPHOZAH at the American Society of Nephrology's Kidney Week. At the same time, the company also raised its financial guidance for 2025.

See our latest analysis for Ardelyx.

Ardelyx has seen its share price surge with an 8.5% gain in just one day and a 24.1% return over the last month, building on clinical news and upbeat financial guidance. While the 1-year total shareholder return sits at a robust 33.6%, that is still a fraction of the massive 402% total return booked over three years. This signals that momentum is gathering again as confidence grows around XPHOZAH and the company’s revenue outlook.

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These developments have fueled strong gains in Ardelyx's share price. With momentum running high, the question remains for investors: Is the stock trading at a bargain, or are future growth prospects already reflected in its valuation?

Most Popular Narrative: 47.7% Undervalued

The most popular narrative estimates Ardelyx’s fair value at $11.73, nearly double its last close of $6.13. This wide gap is drawing attention as analysts see catalysts emerging for the business.

Expanding markets, better market access, and prescription growth are accelerating adoption of core therapies. These factors support sustained revenue and margin improvement. International partnerships and new indications diversify revenue streams, mitigate risks, and enhance long-term earnings stability.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to find out why analysts think Ardelyx could smash expectations? Their calculations hint at breakthrough growth and margin expansion driving the valuation, but the full story is in the bold projections. What surprises lie behind these figures? Explore the narrative to uncover the compelling assumptions powering this fair value.

Result: Fair Value of $11.73 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, setbacks in reimbursement for XPHOZAH or competition in Ardelyx's core markets could quickly undermine the current bullish outlook.

Find out about the key risks to this Ardelyx narrative.

Build Your Own Ardelyx Narrative

If you have a different perspective or prefer to dive into the numbers yourself, you can shape your own independent narrative in just a few minutes, and Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Ardelyx research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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