Should Strong Q3 Results and Raised 2025 Guidance Require Action From Alkermes (ALKS) Investors?

• In the third quarter of 2025, Alkermes reported earnings from continuing operations of US$0.49 per share, surpassing expectations as its proprietary products portfolio saw sales rise 16% year over year, driven by demand for Vivitrol, Aristada, and Lybalvi.
• The company raised its full-year 2025 revenue guidance to a range of US$1.43 billion to US$1.49 billion, highlighting confidence in continued product demand and business momentum.
• We'll examine how Alkermes' stronger earnings and upgraded 2025 revenue outlook could influence its longer-term investment narrative.

AI is about to change healthcare. These 30 stocks are working on everything from early diagnostics to drug discovery. The best part - they are all under $10b in market cap - there's still time to get in early.

Alkermes Investment Narrative Recap

To be a shareholder of Alkermes, you need to believe in the company's ability to drive durable growth through its core neuroscience products and emerging pipeline assets, while managing the risks from concentrated product reliance and R&D investment. The recent earnings beat and raised 2025 revenue guidance point to ongoing strength in proprietary product sales, but the most important short-term catalyst remains sustained demand for Vivitrol, Aristada, and Lybalvi; the biggest risk is whether the rebound in sales is impacted by future normalization of one-time gross-to-net benefits. At this stage, the impact of recent results on these key factors appears supportive, though not transformational. The positive topline results from the November Vibrance-2 Phase 2 study of alixorexton for narcolepsy type 2 are closely tied to Alkermes’ long-term growth catalysts. This announcement adds credibility to their orexin agonist pipeline and is particularly relevant, as future trial outcomes remain a critical driver for diversification beyond the current product portfolio. In contrast, it’s important for investors to remember that revenue strength from recent periods could prove temporary if one-time adjustments were a major factor...

Read the full narrative on Alkermes (it's free!)

Alkermes' outlook suggests $1.4 billion in revenue and $169.0 million in earnings by 2028. This forecast is based on a 1.3% annual decline in revenue and a $179.1 million decrease in earnings from the current level of $348.1 million.

Uncover how Alkermes' forecasts yield a $43.88 fair value, a 52% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Four individual fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community put Alkermes’ worth between US$43.88 and US$71.34 per share. Some believe rapid proprietary product adoption justifies higher valuations, but outcomes for the orexin agonist pipeline could shift expectations widely, review multiple viewpoints before making any decisions.

Explore 4 other fair value estimates on Alkermes - why the stock might be worth just $43.88!

Build Your Own Alkermes Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Alkermes research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Alkermes research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Alkermes' overall financial health at a glance.

Contemplating Other Strategies?

The market won't wait. These fast-moving stocks are hot now. Grab the list before they run:

• Find companies with promising cash flow potential yet trading below their fair value.
• The end of cancer? These 29 emerging AI stocks are developing tech that will allow early identification of life changing diseases like cancer and Alzheimer's.
• Uncover the next big thing with financially sound penny stocks that balance risk and reward.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com