Acadia Pharmaceuticals (ACAD): Reassessing Valuation After Strong Q3 Earnings Beat and Higher Analyst Price Targets

Acadia Pharmaceuticals (ACAD) just delivered a stronger than expected third quarter, with earnings per share beating forecasts and analysts lifting their sales outlook based on improving traction for Nuplazid and Daybue.

See our latest analysis for ACADIA Pharmaceuticals.

The upbeat quarter has added fuel to a rally that already saw a 42.28% year to date share price return and a 58.89% one year total shareholder return, suggesting momentum is building as investors reassess growth and risk around Nuplazid and Daybue.

If ACADIA’s progress has you revisiting healthcare ideas, this could be a good moment to explore other potential winners across healthcare stocks.

With the stock already up sharply and trading only modestly below fresh analyst price targets, the debate now shifts from earnings momentum to valuation. Is ACADIA still attractive at current levels, or is future growth already fully reflected in the share price?

Most Popular Narrative: 9.4% Undervalued

With ACADIA Pharmaceuticals last closing at $26.55, the most followed narrative sees room for upside based on a higher long term fair value.

ACADIA's pipeline momentum with 9 disclosed programs and multiple late stage clinical readouts expected by 2027 positions the company to significantly diversify its revenue streams, reducing risk from single product dependence and providing potential for margin expansion as new products are launched. Positive regulatory and reimbursement trends for rare and neurological diseases, including the use of named patient supply channels globally and favorable FDA review paths, are enabling faster and broader market access for new therapies, likely accelerating revenue growth and international market expansion.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how steady double digit growth, stable margins, and a richer future earnings multiple combine into that upside case, and what has to go right to get there? Read on to see which revenue and profit assumptions sit beneath this fair value.

Result: Fair Value of $29.32 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, growing price pressure on NUPLAZID and rising R&D costs tied to an increasingly complex pipeline could quickly erode today’s optimistic earnings assumptions.

Find out about the key risks to this ACADIA Pharmaceuticals narrative.

Build Your Own ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Narrative

If you see the story differently or prefer to dig into the numbers yourself, you can build a personalized view in just a few minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your ACADIA Pharmaceuticals research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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