Is Wiley a Bargain After a 25% Slide and DCF Value Near 45 Dollars?

• If you have been wondering whether John Wiley & Sons at around $32 is a bargain or a value trap, you are not alone and this article is going to tackle that question head on.
• Despite being a long established name in publishing and research, the stock has had a rough ride lately, falling about 10.9% over the last week, 15.2% over the last month and roughly 24.9% year to date, which naturally raises questions about whether the market has become too pessimistic.
• Some of this share price weakness has been tied to broader concerns around traditional publishing, ongoing shifts toward digital and open access models, and investor uncertainty about how quickly Wiley can pivot its portfolio toward higher growth, higher margin segments. At the same time, the company has continued to invest in research platforms, workflow solutions and education services that could support a more stable, subscription driven business mix over time.
• On our checks, John Wiley & Sons scores a 4/6 valuation score, suggesting it screens as undervalued on most metrics. In the sections that follow we will unpack what different valuation approaches say about that score and hint at an even more intuitive way of thinking about value toward the end of the article.

John Wiley & Sons delivered -26.6% returns over the last year. See how this stacks up to the rest of the Media industry.

Approach 1: John Wiley & Sons Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow model estimates what a company is worth by projecting the cash it can generate in the future and then discounting those cash flows back to today, reflecting risk and the time value of money.

For John Wiley & Sons, the model starts with last twelve month free cash flow of about $132.0 million and then uses analyst estimates for the next few years, with further projections extrapolated by Simply Wall St out to 2035. These forecasts imply relatively modest declines and then stabilisation, with free cash flow projected at around $126.6 million in 2035, suggesting a business that remains cash generative but not rapidly growing.

When all of those future cash flows are discounted back, the DCF model arrives at an intrinsic value of roughly $45.00 per share. Compared with the current share price near $32, this implies the stock is about 28.0% undervalued on a cash flow basis, which points to a meaningful margin of safety if the projections prove broadly accurate.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests John Wiley & Sons is undervalued by 28.0%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 906 more undervalued stocks based on cash flows.

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for John Wiley & Sons.

Approach 2: John Wiley & Sons Price vs Earnings

The price to earnings ratio is a useful way to value profitable companies because it directly links what investors are paying for each share with the earnings that business is currently generating. In general, companies with stronger, more reliable growth and lower perceived risk can justify a higher PE multiple, while slower growing or riskier firms tend to trade on lower multiples.

John Wiley & Sons currently trades on a PE of about 16.9x, which is slightly above the broader Media industry average of roughly 15.5x but well below the peer group average near 26.6x. To go a step further, Simply Wall St calculates a proprietary Fair Ratio for the company of around 24.6x, which represents the PE you might expect given its earnings growth profile, margins, industry positioning, market cap and specific risks.

This Fair Ratio is more informative than a simple comparison with industry or peers, because it adjusts for the fact that not all media businesses have the same quality, growth runway or risk profile. Comparing Wiley’s actual PE of 16.9x with its Fair Ratio of 24.6x suggests the market is pricing the stock below what those fundamentals would typically warrant.

Result: UNDERVALUED

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Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your John Wiley & Sons Narrative

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let us introduce you to Narratives, a simple way to connect your view of John Wiley & Sons with the numbers that sit behind its fair value.

A Narrative is your story about a company, translated into assumptions about future revenue, earnings and margins, which are then used to calculate a Fair Value that you can compare with today’s share price.

On Simply Wall St’s Community page, used by millions of investors, Narratives make this process accessible by guiding you to link what you believe about Wiley’s competitive position, digital transition and risks, to a transparent forecast and resulting valuation.

Because Narratives are dynamic, they automatically update when new information arrives, such as earnings releases, restructuring news or major AI licensing deals. In this way, your Fair Value view stays current without you rebuilding the whole model.

For example, one John Wiley & Sons Narrative might assume revenues grow modestly and margins expand to support a Fair Value near $60 per share. A more cautious Narrative could instead include slower growth, more pricing pressure from open access and lower AI upside, resulting in a Fair Value far below that level and a very different conclusion.

Do you think there's more to the story for John Wiley & Sons? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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