TripAdvisor, Inc. (NASDAQ:TRIP) shareholders should be happy to see the share price up 13% in the last month. But that cannot eclipse the less-than-impressive returns over the last three years. In fact, the share price is down 51% in the last three years, falling well short of the market return.
Now let's have a look at the company's fundamentals, and see if the long term shareholder return has matched the performance of the underlying business.
Because TripAdvisor made a loss in the last twelve months, we think the market is probably more focussed on revenue and revenue growth, at least for now. Shareholders of unprofitable companies usually expect strong revenue growth. As you can imagine, fast revenue growth, when maintained, often leads to fast profit growth.
Over the last three years, TripAdvisor's revenue dropped 36% per year. That means its revenue trend is very weak compared to other loss making companies. Arguably, the market has responded appropriately to this business performance by sending the share price down 15% (annualized) in the same time period. When revenue is dropping, and losses are still costing, and the share price sinking fast, it's fair to ask if something is remiss. It could be a while before the company repays long suffering shareholders with share price gains.
You can see below how earnings and revenue have changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).
We're pleased to report that the CEO is remunerated more modestly than most CEOs at similarly capitalized companies. But while CEO remuneration is always worth checking, the really important question is whether the company can grow earnings going forward. You can see what analysts are predicting for TripAdvisor in this interactive graph of future profit estimates.
What about the Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?
We've already covered TripAdvisor's share price action, but we should also mention its total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR attempts to capture the value of dividends (as if they were reinvested) as well as any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings offered to shareholders. TripAdvisor hasn't been paying dividends, but its TSR of -45% exceeds its share price return of -51%, implying it has either spun-off a business, or raised capital at a discount; thereby providing additional value to shareholders.
A Different Perspective
TripAdvisor shareholders are down 13% for the year, but the market itself is up 15%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 7% per year over five years. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. To that end, you should be aware of the 2 warning signs we've spotted with TripAdvisor .
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Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.