Is Softer Earnings Guidance Reshaping the Value Story for Sirius XM (SIRI)?

• Sirius XM Holdings recently faced investor focus around its latest earnings report, with analysts having expected earnings per share of US$0.77 and revenue of US$2.17 billion, both slightly lower than the same quarter a year earlier.
• Despite these softer expectations, analysts have continued to rate the stock as a Hold while it trades at a discount to industry peers on forward valuation metrics, underscoring how sentiment is being shaped by relative value rather than growth momentum.
• With analysts expecting modest year-over-year earnings softness, we’ll now examine how this affects Sirius XM’s investment narrative and longer-term assumptions.

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Sirius XM Holdings Investment Narrative Recap

To own Sirius XM, you need to believe its paid and ad-supported audio model can hold up despite slow revenue trends and intense streaming competition. The latest earnings expectations, pointing to slightly softer revenue and EPS, do not materially change the near term catalyst around expanding lower priced plans, but they do keep the biggest risk of ongoing subscriber and revenue drift firmly in focus.

Against this backdrop, the company’s decision to maintain its US$0.27 quarterly dividend throughout 2025 stands out as the most relevant recent announcement, because it highlights management’s current confidence in cash generation while investors debate whether modest earnings softness will pressure future capital returns or constrain flexibility around content and technology investments.

Yet investors should be aware that the slow erosion in subscription and advertising revenue could eventually challenge the company’s ability to...

Read the full narrative on Sirius XM Holdings (it's free!)

Sirius XM Holdings’ narrative projects $8.6 billion revenue and $1.1 billion earnings by 2028. This requires a 0.1% yearly revenue decline and an earnings increase of about $2.9 billion from -$1.8 billion today.

Uncover how Sirius XM Holdings' forecasts yield a $24.00 fair value, a 10% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Seven members of the Simply Wall St Community see fair value for Sirius XM between US$24 and about US$74, showing sharply different expectations for upside. You can weigh those views against the risk that ongoing declines in subscription and advertising revenue may limit how much the business can grow its way out of current challenges.

Explore 7 other fair value estimates on Sirius XM Holdings - why the stock might be worth just $24.00!

Build Your Own Sirius XM Holdings Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Sirius XM Holdings research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Sirius XM Holdings research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Sirius XM Holdings' overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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