Nexstar Media Group (NXST): Evaluating Long-Term Value After Consistent Outperformance

Nexstar Media Group (NXST) shares have been relatively quiet this week, but a look at its recent performance hints at some interesting trends investors may want to keep an eye on. The company’s long-term returns continue to outpace the sector, even though near-term price movements remain modest.

See our latest analysis for Nexstar Media Group.

While Nexstar’s share price has seen only muted swings lately, the broader trend tells a different story, with its year-to-date share price return of nearly 20% and a five-year total shareholder return topping 100%. Momentum over the past quarter has faded slightly, but longer-term performance remains comfortably ahead of many industry peers. This underlines a track record of value creation that often flies under the radar.

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With shares still trading at a notable discount compared to analyst price targets, the key question emerges: does Nexstar Media Group remain undervalued, or is the market already factoring in its growth prospects?

Most Popular Narrative: 17.6% Undervalued

With Nexstar’s last close at $191.02 and the narrative-driven fair value set at $231.88, the stage is set for a closer look at why consensus expects more upside.

Regulatory momentum toward loosening ownership caps and broadcast consolidation is likely to create new M&A opportunities for Nexstar. This could support further scale, increased bargaining power in retransmission negotiations, lower per-unit costs, and improved margins and earnings stability. Ongoing balance sheet strength, operational efficiencies, and disciplined capital allocation, including share repurchases and dividend growth, are expected to enable strong EPS growth and return of capital to shareholders. These factors are seen as further supporting stock undervaluation.

Read the complete narrative.

What is fueling that higher valuation target? The numbers behind this narrative hint at rising profitability, some ambitious earnings assumptions, and confidence in recurring capital returns. If you want to find out what projections drive this bullish fair value, the full narrative has all the key details.

Result: Fair Value of $231.88 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, continued declines in linear TV viewership and only modest growth in digital advertising could weaken Nexstar’s revenue resilience over the long term.

Find out about the key risks to this Nexstar Media Group narrative.

Build Your Own Nexstar Media Group Narrative

If you see things differently or want to dig into the numbers firsthand, it takes just a few minutes to craft and share your own perspective. Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Nexstar Media Group research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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