Criteo (CRTO): Assessing Valuation Following Integration with Xnurta’s AI Ad Platform

Criteo (CRTO) just landed a spot on Xnurta’s AI-driven advertising platform, opening the door for advertisers to manage and optimize campaigns across Criteo’s 225 retail networks, as well as those of other industry heavyweights like Amazon and Walmart.

See our latest analysis for Criteo.

Criteo’s big integration news comes after a challenging year for shareholders, with the latest share price at $20.77 and a 1-year total shareholder return of -43.75%. Despite short-term bumps from new partnerships like Xnurta, momentum has been fading in 2024 and long-term gains now stand at just 13.8% over five years.

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The real question now is whether Criteo’s lackluster stock price already reflects its growth prospects, or if a disconnect between valuation and opportunity hints at a genuine buying window for long-term investors.

Most Popular Narrative: 42.2% Undervalued

Criteo’s last close at $20.77 sits well below the most popular narrative’s fair value of $35.92 per share. This sets up a debate over whether future growth drivers can deliver on this premium.

*Accelerating investments and product rollouts in Retail Media and Commerce Media (such as auction-based display and on-site video), along with strategic partnerships (WPP, dentsu, Mirakl, Microsoft), are broadening Criteo's platform reach and enabling share gains. This positions the company to capture a larger slice of the fast-growing digital ad spend and drive top-line growth.*

Read the complete narrative.

Wondering what makes this fair value stand out? The narrative projects a dramatic business shift, with higher efficiency and top-line momentum critical to closing the gap seen in today's market price. The numbers driving this bold outlook might surprise you.

Result: Fair Value of $35.92 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, slower adoption of AI-driven commerce and continued competition from tech giants could challenge Criteo’s ability to deliver on bullish forecasts.

Find out about the key risks to this Criteo narrative.

Build Your Own Criteo Narrative

If you have a different perspective or want to dig deeper into the numbers, it's easy to craft a personalized view of Criteo in just a few minutes. Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Criteo research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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