Assessing Bilibili (NasdaqGS:BILI) Valuation After New December Game Launch Plans

Bilibili (NasdaqGS:BILI) is getting fresh attention after the stock climbed about 3% in pre market trading, as investors reacted to news that the company will distribute 13 new games in December.

See our latest analysis for Bilibili.

The pre market pop sits against a choppy backdrop, with a roughly 15% 90 day share price return and a much stronger year to date share price return of about 51% signaling that momentum is still broadly building despite recent pullbacks. At the same time, the 1 year total shareholder return of around 35% leaves longer term holders only partly repaired after a steep 5 year total shareholder loss.

If Bilibili’s latest game slate has you rethinking growth stories, it might be worth scanning other high growth tech and media names through high growth tech and AI stocks.

With earnings finally turning a corner and the share price still sitting nearly 30% below some intrinsic value estimates, has Bilibili quietly become a discounted growth story again, or is the market already pricing in the next leg of its recovery?

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 13.8% Undervalued

With Bilibili last closing at $25.80 versus a narrative fair value near $29.93, the valuation hinges heavily on what happens to future margins and growth.

Ongoing improvements in operational efficiency and disciplined cost control, underpinned by economies of scale and AI-driven automation, are resulting in stable or declining operating expenses and a path toward mid-to-high teens operating margins, positioning Bilibili to deliver expanding net margins and growing adjusted net profit.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see what kind of revenue trajectory and profit ramp this narrative is baking in, and how those assumptions translate into that higher fair value? Read on to unpack the full playbook behind this pricing story.

Result: Fair Value of $29.93 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, that upside depends on avoiding regulatory setbacks in China and successfully diversifying beyond a shrinking, intensely competitive Gen Z focused home market.

Find out about the key risks to this Bilibili narrative.

Another Lens on Value

While narrative fair value points to upside, a straightforward price-to-earnings check tells a tighter story. At about 98 times earnings versus roughly 17 times for the US interactive media sector and a fair ratio near 31.9 times, Bilibili screens as expensive, raising the risk that any growth stumble could hit the share price hard.

Does that premium reflect durable earnings momentum, or is the market getting ahead of itself?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own Bilibili Narrative

If you would rather dig into the numbers yourself and challenge these assumptions, you can spin up a fresh perspective in minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Bilibili research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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