Discounted Cash Flow Calculation for OTCPK:URAY.Y using 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Model
The calculations below outline how an intrinsic value for
is arrived at by discounting future cash flows to their present value using the 2 stage method.
We try to start with analysts estimates of free cash flow, however if these are not available we use the most recent financial results. In the 1st stage we continue to grow the free cash flow over a 10 year period, with the growth rate trending towards the perpetual growth rate used in the 2nd stage. The 2nd stage assumes the company grows at a stable rate into perpetuity.
OTCPK:URAY.Y DCF 1st Stage: Next 10 year cash flow forecast
Amount off the current price
is available for.
Share price is
vs Future cash flow value of
Current Discount Checks
to be considered undervalued it must be available for at least 20% below the
current price. Less than 40% is even better.
Uralkali's share price is below the future cash flow value, and at a moderate discount (> 20%).
Uralkali's share price is below the future cash flow value, and at a substantial discount (> 40%).
PRICE RELATIVE TO MARKET
We can also value a company based on what the stock market is willing to pay for
it. This is similar to the price of fruit (e.g. Mangoes or Avocados) increasing
when they are out of season, or how much your home is worth.
The amount the stock market is willing to pay for
is considered below, and whether this is a fair price.
Price based on past earnings
Uralkali's earnings available for a low price, and how does
this compare to other companies in the same industry?
Uralkali's earnings are expected to grow significantly at over 20% yearly.
Unable to determine if Uralkali is high growth as no revenue estimate data is available.
Past and Future Earnings per Share
The accuracy of the analysts who estimate the future performance data can
be gauged below. We look back 3 years and see if they were any good at
predicting what actually occurred. We also show the highest and lowest estimates
looking forward to see if there is a wide range.
Uralkali's performance over the past 5 years by checking for:
Has earnings increased in past 5 years? (1 check)
Has the earnings growth in the last year exceeded that of the
industry? (1 check)
Is the recent earnings growth over the last year higher than the average annual growth over the
past 5 years? (1 check)
Is the Return on Equity (ROE) higher than 20%? (1 check)
Is the Return on Assets (ROA) above industry average? (1 check)
Has the Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) increased from 3 years ago? (1 check)
The above checks will fail if the company has reported a loss in the most recent
earnings report. Some checks require at least 3 or 5 years worth of data.
has a total score of
0/6, see the detailed checks below.
Note: We use GAAP Net Income excluding extraordinary items in all our calculations.
Management is one of the most important areas of a company. We look at
unreasonable CEO compensation, how long the team and board of directors have
been around for and insider trading.
TENURE AS CEO
Mr. Dmitry Vasilievich Osipov has been the Chief Executive Officer and General Director of Public Joint Stock Company Uralkali since January 2014 and since December 24, 2013 respectively. Mr. Osipov has been Chairman of the Management Board at Public Joint Stock Company Uralkali since December 2013. Mr. Osipov served as General Manager of Kirovo-Chepetsk Chemical Enterprise named after Konstantinov. From 2007 to 2011, he served as Chief Executive Officer of URALCHEM Holding PLC. From 2005 and 2007, he served as the Chief Executive Officer of Kirovo-Chepetsk Chemical Plant OJSC. Mr. Osipov served as the Chief Executive Officer of Open Joint Stock Company United Chemical Company Uralchem from 2007 to January 25, 2011. He served as Chief Executive Officer of KCCW OJSC, a subsidiary of URALCHEM from 2005 to 2007. He served as the Deputy Chairman of the Board of Open Joint Stock Company United Chemical Company Uralchem since January 25, 2011 until 2013. Mr. Osipov has been a Director of Open Joint Stock Company United Chemical Company Uralchem since July 7, 2016. Mr. Osipov has been a Director of Azot Cherkassy Joint Stock Co. since July 2009. He has been a Director at OAO Voskresensk Mineral Fertilizers since September 2008. He served as a Member of the Board of Directors at Open Joint Stock Company United Chemical Company Uralchem since 2007 until 2013. He served as a Director of Kirovo-Chepetsk Chemical Enterprise named after Konstantinov. From the middle 1990's, he served the top management positions in large chemical companies: Khimprom (Volgograd), Propan-Butanovaya Company, Sibur-Khimprom from 2005 to 2007. He has been Director of Public Joint Stock Company Uralkali since June 2014. He has been Member of the Commission for the Mineral Fertiliser Production and Market of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs. Since 2011, he has been the Member of the Council and Financial Committee of International Fertilizer Association (IFA). Mr. Osipov is a Graduate of Gorkiy State University (Radiophysics and Cybernetics Department) and Graduated from Lobachevsky State University of Nizhny Novgorod.
Insufficient data for Dmitry to compare compensation growth.
Insufficient data for Dmitry to establish whether their remuneration is reasonable compared to companies of similar size in United States of America.
Management Team Tenure
Average tenure and age of the
management team in years:
The tenure for the Uralkali management team is about average.
CEO, Chairman of the Management Board & Director
CFO & Member of Management Board
Director of Legal & Corporate Affairs and Member of Management Board
Technical Director & Member of Management Board
Director of Human Resource & Member of Management Board
Chief Accountant and Member of Audit Commission
Head of Investor Relations & Capital Markets
Head of Public Relations
Head of EuroChem Ore Mining Division
Head of Government Relations
Board of Directors Tenure
Average tenure and age of the
board of directors in years:
The average tenure for the Uralkali board of directors is less than 3 years, this suggests a new board.
Public Joint Stock Company Uralkali, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the extraction, production, and sale of potash fertilizers. It holds operating licenses for the extraction of potassium, magnesium, and sodium salts from the Durimanskiy, Bigelsko-Troitsky, Solikamskiy, Novo-Solikamskiy, and Romanovskoye plots of the Verkhnekamskoye field. The company also owns a license for the Ust'-Yaivinskiy plot and the Polovodovskiy plot of the Verkhnekamskoye field. It produces standard and granular muriate of potash; and carnallite and sodium chloride. In addition, the company provides construction, repair and maintenance, transportation, sea terminal, scientific institute, and trading services. It has operations in Russia, China, India, Southeast Asia, Latin America, the United States, Europe, and other countries. The company was founded in 1930 and is based in Berezniki, Russia.
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