OTCPK:PHOJ.Y

Stock Analysis Report

Executive Summary

PJSC PhosAgro, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production and distribution of apatite concentrate and mineral fertilizers in Russia and internationally.

Rewards

Trading at 19.1% below its fair value

Earnings grew by 116% over the past year

Risk Analysis

Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of -3.1% per year for the next 3 years

Has a high level of debt

Unstable dividend track record



Snowflake Analysis

Solid track record with adequate balance sheet and pays a dividend.


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TSX:NTR

Share Price & News

How has PJSC PhosAgro's share price performed over time and what events caused price changes?


Latest Share Price and Events

Stable Share Price: PHOJ.Y has not had significant price volatility in the past 3 months.


Market Performance


7 Day Return

0%

PHOJ.Y

-1.2%

US Chemicals

0.6%

US Market


1 Year Return

n/a

PHOJ.Y

0.4%

US Chemicals

24.6%

US Market

Return vs Industry: Insufficient data to determine how PHOJ.Y performed against the US Chemicals industry.

Return vs Market: Insufficient data to determine how PHOJ.Y performed against the US Market.


Shareholder returns

PHOJ.YIndustryMarket
7 Day0%-1.2%0.6%
30 Day2.4%-1.9%3.0%
90 Day-2.3%3.4%10.6%
1 Yearn/a16.1%0.4%27.3%24.6%
3 Yearn/a29.8%5.0%50.5%40.8%
5 Yearn/a50.4%17.9%78.9%59.1%

Price Volatility Vs. Market

How volatile is PJSC PhosAgro's share price compared to the market and industry in the last 5 years?


Simply Wall St News

No news available

Valuation

Is PJSC PhosAgro undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

19.6%

Undervalued compared to fair value


Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below Fair Value: PHOJ.Y ($12.85) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($15.88)

Significantly Below Fair Value: PHOJ.Y is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.


Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: PHOJ.Y is good value based on its PE Ratio (6.8x) compared to the Chemicals industry average (20.8x).

PE vs Market: PHOJ.Y is good value based on its PE Ratio (6.8x) compared to the US market (18.9x).


Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: PHOJ.Y's earnings are forecast to decline next year, so we can't calculate its PEG ratio.


Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: PHOJ.Y is overvalued based on its PB Ratio (2.5x) compared to the US Chemicals industry average (2.2x).


Next Steps

Future Growth

How is PJSC PhosAgro forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 7 analysts?

-5.0%

Forecasted annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts


Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: PHOJ.Y's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-3.1% per year).

Earnings vs Market: PHOJ.Y's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-3.1% per year).

High Growth Earnings: PHOJ.Y's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: PHOJ.Y's revenue (4.2% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (7.5% per year).

High Growth Revenue: PHOJ.Y's revenue (4.2% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: PHOJ.Y's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time (24.1%)


Next Steps

Past Performance

How has PJSC PhosAgro performed over the past 5 years?

19.2%

Historical annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: PHOJ.Y has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: PHOJ.Y's current net profit margins (18.5%) are higher than last year (9.9%).


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: PHOJ.Y's earnings have grown by 19.2% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: PHOJ.Y's earnings growth over the past year (116%) exceeds its 5-year average (19.2% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: PHOJ.Y earnings growth over the past year (116%) exceeded the Chemicals industry -17%.


Return on Equity

High ROE: Whilst PHOJ.Y's Return on Equity (37.28%) is high, this metric is skewed due to their high level of debt.


Return on Assets


Return on Capital Employed


Next Steps

Financial Health

How is PJSC PhosAgro's financial position?


Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: PHOJ.Y's short term assets (RUB63.9B) exceed its short term liabilities (RUB49.0B).

Long Term Liabilities: PHOJ.Y's short term assets (RUB63.9B) do not cover its long term liabilities (RUB110.3B).


Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: PHOJ.Y's debt to equity ratio (100.1%) is considered high.

Reducing Debt: PHOJ.Y's debt to equity ratio has reduced from 127.3% to 100.1% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: PHOJ.Y's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (56.3%).

Interest Coverage: PHOJ.Y's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (17.7x coverage).


Balance Sheet

Inventory Level: PHOJ.Y has a high level of physical assets or inventory.

Debt Coverage by Assets: PHOJ.Y's debt is not covered by short term assets (assets are 0.5x debt).


Next Steps

Dividend

What is PJSC PhosAgro's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

7.80%

Current Dividend Yield


Dividend Yield vs Market

company7.8%marketbottom25%1.4%markettop25%3.7%industryaverage2.2%forecastin3Years4.9%

Current dividend yield vs market & industry

Notable Dividend: PHOJ.Y's dividend (7.75%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the US market (1.4%).

High Dividend: PHOJ.Y's dividend (7.75%) is in the top 25% of dividend payers in the US market (3.66%)


Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: PHOJ.Y has been paying a dividend for less than 10 years and during this time payments have been volatile.

Growing Dividend: PHOJ.Y's dividend payments have increased, but the company has only paid a dividend for 8 years.


Current Payout to Shareholders

Dividend Coverage: With its reasonable payout ratio (61.8%), PHOJ.Y's dividend payments are covered by earnings.


Future Payout to Shareholders

Future Dividend Coverage: PHOJ.Y's dividends in 3 years are forecast to be well covered by earnings (43.9% payout ratio).


Next Steps

Management

What is the CEO of PJSC PhosAgro's salary, the management and board of directors tenure and is there insider trading?

1.9yrs

Average management tenure


CEO

Andrey Guryev (37yo)

6.4yrs

Tenure

0

Mr. Andrey Andreevich Guryev is a Co-Founder of Carranita Holdings Limited. Mr. Guryev serves as the Chairman of Management Board at OJSC PhosAgro and has been its Chief Executive Officer since August 1, 2 ...


Management Age and Tenure

1.9yrs

Average Tenure

43yo

Average Age

Experienced Management: PHOJ.Y's management team is not considered experienced ( 1.9 years average tenure), which suggests a new team.


Board Age and Tenure

4.5yrs

Average Tenure

58.5yo

Average Age

Experienced Board: PHOJ.Y's board of directors are considered experienced (4.5 years average tenure).


Insider Trading

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.


Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.


Management Team

  • Mikhail Rybnikov (44yo)

    Member of Management Board & Director

    • Tenure: 3.6yrs
  • Alexander Seleznev

    Chief of Staff & Member of the Management Board

    • Tenure: 1yrs
  • Alexander Sharabaika (42yo)

    Deputy CEO of Finance & International Projects & Member of Management Board

    • Tenure: 8yrs
  • Alexei Sirotenko (50yo)

    Deputy CEO of Corporate & Legal Affairs and Member of Management Board

    • Alexander Gilgenberg (39yo)

      Member of Management Board & General Director of Apatit

      • Tenure: 2yrs
    • Andrey Guryev (37yo)

      Chairman of the Management Board

      • Tenure: 6.4yrs
    • Siroj Loikov (47yo)

      Deputy CEO & Member of Management Board

      • Tenure: 1.8yrs
    • E. Valenkova

      Chief Accountant

      • Andrey Serov

        Head of Investor Relations

        • Tenure: 0.5yrs
      • Timur Belov

        Head of Information Policy Division & Press Officer


        Board Members

        • Jim Rogers (77yo)

          Independent Director

          • Tenure: 5.3yrs
        • Sven Ombudstvedt (53yo)

          Independent Director

          • Tenure: 14yrs
        • Xavier Rolet (60yo)

          Independent Chairman

          • Tenure: 0.7yrs
        • Mikhail Rybnikov (44yo)

          Member of Management Board & Director

          • Tenure: 3.6yrs
        • Marcus Rhodes (58yo)

          Independent Director

          • Tenure: 8.7yrs
        • Andrey Guryev (37yo)

          Chairman of the Management Board

          • Tenure: 6.4yrs
        • Andrey Guryev (59yo)

          Deputy Chairman of the Board

          • Tenure: 6.6yrs
        • Irina Bokova (67yo)

          Independent Director

          • Tenure: 1.9yrs
        • Natalia Pashkevich (80yo)

          Independent Director

          • Tenure: 2.3yrs
        • Andrey Sharonov (55yo)

          Independent Director

          • Tenure: 2.3yrs

        Company Information

        PJSC PhosAgro's company bio, employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


        Key Information

        • Name: PJSC PhosAgro
        • Ticker: PHOJ.Y
        • Exchange: OTCPK
        • Founded:
        • Industry: Fertilizers and Agricultural Chemicals
        • Sector: Materials
        • Market Cap: ₽318.959b
        • Listing Market Cap: ₽5.143b
        • Shares outstanding: 129.50m
        • Website: https://www.phosagro.com

        Location

        • PJSC PhosAgro
        • Building 1
        • 55/1, Leninsky prospekt
        • Moscow
        • 119333
        • Russia

        Listings

        TickerExchangePrimary SecuritySecurity TypeCountryCurrencyListed on
        PHORMISX (Micex - Rts)YesOrdinary SharesRURUBJul 2011
        PHORLSE (London Stock Exchange)SPON GDR REG SGBUSDJul 2011
        PHOJ.YOTCPK (Pink Sheets LLC)SPON GDR REG SUSUSDJul 2011
        P6SGDB (Deutsche Boerse AG)SPON GDR REG SDEEURJul 2011
        PHORLBATS-CHIXE (BATS 'Chi-X Europe')SPON GDR REG SGBUSDJul 2011
        PHORWBAG (Wiener Boerse AG)SPON GDR REG SATEURJul 2011

        Biography

        PJSC PhosAgro, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production and distribution of apatite concentrate and mineral fertilizers in Russia and internationally. It operates through two segments, Phosphate-Based Products and Nitrogen-Based Products. The Phosphate-Based Products segment produces and distributes ammophos, diammoniumphosphate, sodium tripolyphosphate, and other phosphate based and complex fertilizers; and apatite concentrate extracted from the apatite-nepheline ore. The Nitrogen-Based Products segment is involved in the production and distribution of ammonia, ammonium nitrate, and urea. It also offers feed phosphates; phosphate rock, nepheline concentrate, titanomagnetite concentrate, syenite alkali aluminium concentrate, aegirine concentrate, and titanite concentrate; and by-products, such as ammonia solution, nitric acid, aluminium fluoride, sodiumsilicofluoride, sulphuric acid, and oleum. PJSC PhosAgro is based in Moscow, Russia. 


        Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

        All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
        DataLast Updated (UTC time)
        Company Analysis2020/01/23 00:41
        End of Day Share Price2020/01/08 00:00
        Earnings2019/09/30
        Annual Earnings2018/12/31


        Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.