TimkenSteel (NYSE:TMST) - Share price, News & Analysis

TMST fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	5/6
Future Growth	0/6
Past Performance	4/6
Financial Health	6/6
Dividends	0/6

TMST Stock Overview

TimkenSteel Corporation manufactures and sells alloy steel, and carbon and micro-alloy steel products in the United States and internationally.

Rewards

Trading at 53.5% below our estimate of its fair value

Became profitable this year

Risk Analysis

Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 27.8% per year for the next 3 years

Shareholders have been diluted in the past year

TimkenSteel Competitors

Nucor

NYSE:NUE

US$33.1b

Steel Dynamics

NasdaqGS:STLD

US$14.7b

Olympic Steel

NasdaqGS:ZEUS

US$385.6m

Schlumberger

NYSE:SLB

US$62.1b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for TimkenSteel
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	US$22.47
52 Week High	US$24.99
52 Week Low	US$11.68
Beta	1.78
1 Month Change	3.79%
3 Month Change	47.15%
1 Year Change	60.61%
3 Year Change	193.34%
5 Year Change	66.57%
Change since IPO	-40.46%

Recent News & Updates

May 16

TimkenSteel: A Rare Winner In The Bear Market

Today, we take our first look at a small steel maker called TimkenSteel Corporation. The stock has been one of few winners in the market so far in 2022, and its shares have seen some insider buying for the first time since 2019. Can the rally continue? A full investment analysis follows in the paragraphs below.

May 03

These 4 Measures Indicate That TimkenSteel (NYSE:TMST) Is Using Debt Reasonably Well

David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the...

Shareholder Returns

	TMST	US Metals and Mining	US Market
7D	3.4%	1.2%	-4.0%
1Y	60.6%	-2.5%	-13.2%

Return vs Industry: TMST exceeded the US Metals and Mining industry which returned -3.9% over the past year.

Return vs Market: TMST exceeded the US Market which returned -12.3% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is TMST's price volatile compared to industry and market?
TMST volatility
TMST Average Weekly Movement	9.7%
Metals and Mining Industry Average Movement	10.1%
Market Average Movement	7.8%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market	16.8%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market	2.9%

Stable Share Price: TMST is not significantly more volatile than the rest of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 10% a week.

Volatility Over Time: TMST's weekly volatility (10%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1899	1,850	Mike Williams	https://www.timkensteel.com

TimkenSteel Corporation manufactures and sells alloy steel, and carbon and micro-alloy steel products in the United States and internationally. It offers carbon, micro-alloy, and alloy steel ingots, bars, tubes, and billets, as well as supplies machining and thermal treatment services. The company’s products are used in gears; hubs; axles; crankshafts and connecting rods; oil country drill pipes; bits and collars; bearing races and rolling elements; bushings; fuel injectors; wind energy shafts; anti-friction bearings; and other applications.

TimkenSteel Fundamentals Summary

How do TimkenSteel's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
TMST fundamental statistics
Market Cap	US$1.05b
Earnings (TTM)	US$198.30m
Revenue (TTM)	US$1.36b

5.3x

P/E Ratio

0.8x

P/S Ratio

Is TMST overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
TMST income statement (TTM)
Revenue	US$1.36b
Cost of Revenue	US$1.11b
Gross Profit	US$249.30m
Other Expenses	US$51.00m
Earnings	US$198.30m

Last Reported Earnings

Mar 31, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	4.25
Gross Margin	18.31%
Net Profit Margin	14.57%
Debt/Equity Ratio	5.0%

How did TMST perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Valuation

Is TimkenSteel undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
PE vs Industry
PE vs Market
PEG Ratio
PB vs Industry

>50%

Undervalued compared to fair value

Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below Fair Value: TMST ($22.47) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($48.34)

Significantly Below Fair Value: TMST is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: TMST is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (5.3x) compared to the US Metals and Mining industry average (8.7x).

PE vs Market: TMST is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (5.3x) compared to the US market (15.1x).

Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: TMST's earnings are forecast to decline next year, so we can't calculate its PEG ratio.

Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: TMST is good value based on its Price-To-Book Ratio (1.5x) compared to the US Metals and Mining industry average (1.9x).

Future Growth

How is TimkenSteel forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 3 analysts?

Future Growth Score

0/6

Future Growth Score 0/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

-27.8%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: TMST's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-27.8% per year).

Earnings vs Market: TMST's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-27.8% per year).

High Growth Earnings: TMST's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: TMST's revenue (2% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (7.8% per year).

High Growth Revenue: TMST's revenue (2% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: TMST's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (9.1%).

Past Performance

How has TimkenSteel performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

4/6

Past Performance Score 4/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

41.1%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: TMST has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: TMST became profitable in the past.

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: TMST has become profitable over the past 5 years, growing earnings by 41.1% per year.

Accelerating Growth: TMST has become profitable in the last year, making the earnings growth rate difficult to compare to its 5-year average.

Earnings vs Industry: TMST has become profitable in the last year, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the Metals and Mining industry (94.3%).

Return on Equity

High ROE: TMST's Return on Equity (28.2%) is considered high.

Financial Health

How is TimkenSteel's financial position?

Financial Health Score

6/6

Financial Health Score 6/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: TMST's short term assets ($615.2M) exceed its short term liabilities ($246.2M).

Long Term Liabilities: TMST's short term assets ($615.2M) exceed its long term liabilities ($236.6M).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: TMST has more cash than its total debt.

Reducing Debt: TMST's debt to equity ratio has reduced from 27.4% to 5% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: TMST's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (559.7%).

Interest Coverage: TMST's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (42.9x coverage).

Balance Sheet

Dividend

What is TimkenSteel current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

0/6

Dividend Score 0/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Future Dividend Coverage

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate TMST's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate TMST's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if TMST's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if TMST's dividend payments have been increasing.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: TMST is not paying a notable dividend for the US market.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: Unable to calculate sustainability of dividends as TMST has not reported any payouts.

Discover strong dividend paying companies

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

3.3yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Mike Williams (61 yo)

1.33yrs

Tenure

US$7,161,838

Compensation

Mr. Michael S. Williams, B.Sc. (Information Science), also known as Mike, serves as the Chief Executive Officer and President of TimkenSteel Corporation since January 1, 2021 and also serves as its Directo...

CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Mike's total compensation ($USD7.16M) is above average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD3.85M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Insufficient data to compare Mike's compensation with company performance.

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: TMST's management team is considered experienced (3.3 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: TMST's board of directors are considered experienced (7.3 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: TMST insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have been diluted in the past year, with total shares outstanding growing by 2%.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/05/24 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/05/24 00:00
Earnings	2022/03/31
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31