SQM Stock Overview
Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile S.A. produces and distributes specialty plant nutrients, iodine and its derivatives, lithium and its derivatives, potassium chloride and sulfate, industrial chemicals, and other products and services.
Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile S.A. Competitors
Price History & Performance
|Historical stock prices|
|Current Share Price||US$105.70|
|52 Week High||US$115.76|
|52 Week Low||US$46.13|
|1 Month Change||24.27%|
|3 Month Change||17.17%|
|1 Year Change||115.85%|
|3 Year Change||302.51%|
|5 Year Change||138.60%|
|Change since IPO||4,004.85%|
Recent News & Updates
Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile Q2 2022 Earnings Preview
Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile (NYSE:SQM) is scheduled to announce Q2 earnings results on Wednesday, August 17th, after market close. The consensus EPS Estimate is $3.15 (+916.1% Y/Y) and the consensus Revenue Estimate is $2.34B (+298.0% Y/Y). Over the last 1 year, SQM has beaten EPS estimates 25% of the time and has beaten revenue estimates 50% of the time. Over the last 3 months, EPS estimates have seen 5 upward revisions and 0 downward. Revenue estimates have seen 4 upward revisions and 0 downward.
When Should You Buy Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile S.A. (NYSE:SQM)?
Today we're going to take a look at the well-established Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile S.A. ( NYSE:SQM ). The...
SQM: A Core EV Value Chain Stock With High Growth And Low Valuation
SQM should grow LCE volumes 30% a year to YE25. As a low-cost producer, it has high margins and significant free cash flow. The stock is at a 30% discount vs. historical valuation and vs. peer Albemarle. My YE23 price target is US$143 +50%. SQM is a core holding Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile S.A. (SQM) is a long-term core holding in the EV (electric vehicle) sector with a 25% share of the global Lithium market. The company is a low-cost producer operating in Chile's Salar de Atacama with 20+ years of reserves. SQM should increase LCE (Lithium carbonate equivalent) capacity by 30% annually to YE25 and maintain market share leadership. Valuation is compelling at 8x EV/EBITDA, a 30% discount to 10yr average and its main peer Albemarle (ALB). LCE prices could decline in YE23 forward to US$20k/ton from over US$50k/ton today which still drives a US$143 price target for 50% upside. SQM Financial and Valuation Summary (Created by author with data from SQM) Peer Comparisons SQM compares well on many metrics vs relevant peers, including valuation, production, margins, and growth. Note that peer comps are based on consensus estimates. My estimates are below consensus, most likely due to lower long term LCE prices and perhaps fertilizer and potash pricing as well. Livent (LTHM) and Lithium Americas (LAC) have higher valuations and greater operating risk with mines based in Argentina. SQM peer comps with consensus estimates (Created by author with data from Capital IQ) EV and Lithium market overview USA, Europe, and China are mandating an end to ICE (internal combustion engine) new car sales by 2030-2040. The market estimates that this will push EV penetration to 30% of new car sales by YE30 vs 8.5% in YE21. This translates into about 1.9m tons of LCE or a 15% annual growth rate. There are many studies suggesting that EV metal capacity may hinder this target, which means that raw material suppliers are in the driver's seat and may dictate terms, seek high prices and long-term contacts, to assure capital returns. LCE market demand forecast (Created by author with data from IEA, Mckinsey and ACEA) EV Penetration and Unit Volume (Created by author with data from IEA and Mckinsey) LCE prices: Back to US$20k/ton LCE prices have climbed out of the lows seen during the pandemic shutdowns in mid-2020, increasing from US$6.5k/ton to US$50k/ton currently. This is due to basic supply demand equation: EV units sales grew 50% in YE21 and continue to perform, while the many EV battery production facility startups are all looking to lock in scarce raw materials. However, I do not think these price levels are sustainable and estimate a decline to the US$20k/ton level in YE23 going forward in line with a recent Fitch estimate. However, higher price as seen at Pilbara's (PILBF) Battery Exchange Market (see page 12), provide upside risk. Goldman Sachs LCE Estimates Goldman Sachs (GS) recently forecast that LCE price would drop to US$16k/ton in 2H22 and US$11k/ton in YE23. The rational is that supply / capacity is coming on fast and the market will go from deficit to over supply by end of YE23. Key to this assumption is a significant increase from Chinese lepidolite (mica) mines, a hard rock lithium resource different to traditional spodumene. This has about half the lithium concentration and thus has a higher cost to extract according to a white paper. The research also assumes significant capacity increase in Argentina, which poses high risk given capital controls, arbitrary regulation and 70% inflation. Goldman Sachs LCE Volume Forecast (Created by author with data from GS) Using GS estimated LCE prices the lepidolite based production would have around an 18% gross margin vs brines and spodumene of over 50%. Would that cover the cost of capital and provide a positive return? Perhaps not but Chinese companies may benefit from government subsidies or have lower return hurdles. Goldman Sachs LCE Price Forecast (Created by author with data from GS and Roskill) Gross Margin per LCE source mine (Created by author with data from SQM and Roskill) Impact on SQM: Using GS price forecast of US$16k/ton in 2H22 and US$11k/ton in YE23 forward reduces SQM EBITDA by 27% and a price target to US$100 for YE23. Political Risk: Impacts Valuation Much has been written and implied regarding SQM's political risk, which also applies to ALB. The fact is that both have concession agreements to YE30 with Corfo, Chile's development authority and this should not be altered. I have covered SQM since 1997 and have lived in Chile for over 15rys which I believe provides me with an educated insight into the political and regulatory situation. The government and a new constitution may attempt to establish a national champion to "compete" with SQM but this does not alter the company's growth plans or cost structure. Talk of stimulating "value added" production, such as battery assembly in Chile, is a positive. Post YE30 expropriation risk exists but it's very unlikely the government in power will have the funds or expertise to manage SQM and ALB. Plus, expropriation of any company kills future FDI (foreign direct investment). I view the main risk as increased taxation but quite frankly 2030 is just too far away to worry about or predict. SQM and ALB had similar EV/EBITDA valuations, averaging 12x until the end of 2020. The gap seen in ALB seems irrational given that both derive the bulk of EBITDA from Chile Lithium operations. My YE23 price target of US$143 is based on a reversion to mean of 12x EV/EBITDA for SQM.
|SQM||US Chemicals||US Market|
Return vs Industry: SQM exceeded the US Chemicals industry which returned -2.9% over the past year.
Return vs Market: SQM exceeded the US Market which returned -9.6% over the past year.
|SQM Average Weekly Movement||7.5%|
|Chemicals Industry Average Movement||6.5%|
|Market Average Movement||7.6%|
|10% most volatile stocks in US Market||16.8%|
|10% least volatile stocks in US Market||3.1%|
Stable Share Price: SQM is not significantly more volatile than the rest of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 8% a week.
Volatility Over Time: SQM's weekly volatility (8%) has been stable over the past year.
About the Company
|1968||6,294||Ricardo Ramos Rodríguez||https://www.sqm.com|
Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile S.A. produces and distributes specialty plant nutrients, iodine and its derivatives, lithium and its derivatives, potassium chloride and sulfate, industrial chemicals, and other products and services. The company offers specialty plant nutrients, including potassium nitrate, sodium nitrate, sodium potassium nitrate, specialty blends, and other specialty fertilizers. It also provides iodine and its derivatives for use in medical, pharmaceutical, agricultural, and industrial applications comprising x-ray contrast media, polarizing films for LCD and LED, antiseptics, biocides and disinfectants, pharmaceutical synthesis, electronics, pigments, and dye components.
Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile S.A. Fundamentals Summary
|SQM fundamental statistics|
Is SQM overvalued?See Fair Value and valuation analysis
Earnings & Revenue
|SQM income statement (TTM)|
|Cost of Revenue||US$2.24b|
Last Reported Earnings
Mar 31, 2022
Next Earnings Date
Aug 17, 2022
|Earnings per share (EPS)||4.60|
|Net Profit Margin||30.17%|
How did SQM perform over the long term?See historical performance and comparison