Stock Analysis

We Think Ryerson Holding (NYSE:RYI) Is Taking Some Risk With Its Debt

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NYSE:RYI
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Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. We note that Ryerson Holding Corporation (NYSE:RYI) does have debt on its balance sheet. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.

When Is Debt Dangerous?

Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.

See our latest analysis for Ryerson Holding

How Much Debt Does Ryerson Holding Carry?

The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Ryerson Holding had debt of US$603.7m at the end of June 2021, a reduction from US$908.8m over a year. However, it also had US$38.1m in cash, and so its net debt is US$565.6m.

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NYSE:RYI Debt to Equity History September 28th 2021

How Strong Is Ryerson Holding's Balance Sheet?

Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Ryerson Holding had liabilities of US$874.4m due within 12 months and liabilities of US$1.07b due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of US$38.1m and US$670.1m worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by US$1.23b.

Given this deficit is actually higher than the company's market capitalization of US$901.1m, we think shareholders really should watch Ryerson Holding's debt levels, like a parent watching their child ride a bike for the first time. Hypothetically, extremely heavy dilution would be required if the company were forced to pay down its liabilities by raising capital at the current share price.

In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.

While Ryerson Holding's debt to EBITDA ratio (2.9) suggests that it uses some debt, its interest cover is very weak, at 2.3, suggesting high leverage. It seems clear that the cost of borrowing money is negatively impacting returns for shareholders, of late. Looking on the bright side, Ryerson Holding boosted its EBIT by a silky 32% in the last year. Like the milk of human kindness that sort of growth increases resilience, making the company more capable of managing debt. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Ryerson Holding can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. During the last three years, Ryerson Holding generated free cash flow amounting to a very robust 91% of its EBIT, more than we'd expect. That positions it well to pay down debt if desirable to do so.

Our View

We feel some trepidation about Ryerson Holding's difficulty level of total liabilities, but we've got positives to focus on, too. To wit both its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow and EBIT growth rate were encouraging signs. Looking at all the angles mentioned above, it does seem to us that Ryerson Holding is a somewhat risky investment as a result of its debt. That's not necessarily a bad thing, since leverage can boost returns on equity, but it is something to be aware of. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. For example, we've discovered 5 warning signs for Ryerson Holding (1 shouldn't be ignored!) that you should be aware of before investing here.

At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.

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