Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of PPG Industries, Inc. (NYSE:PPG) as an investment opportunity by taking the forecast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today's value. The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model is the tool we will apply to do this. Don't get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward.
Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.
We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate
|Levered FCF ($, Millions)||US$1.62b||US$1.91b||US$2.21b||US$1.88b||US$1.83b||US$1.81b||US$1.80b||US$1.81b||US$1.83b||US$1.85b|
|Growth Rate Estimate Source||Analyst x11||Analyst x11||Analyst x7||Analyst x2||Analyst x2||Est @ -1.14%||Est @ -0.2%||Est @ 0.45%||Est @ 0.92%||Est @ 1.24%|
|Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 7.0%||US$1.5k||US$1.7k||US$1.8k||US$1.4k||US$1.3k||US$1.2k||US$1.1k||US$1.1k||US$995||US$942|
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$13b
We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.0%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 7.0%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2030 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$1.8b× (1 + 2.0%) ÷ (7.0%– 2.0%) = US$38b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$38b÷ ( 1 + 7.0%)10= US$19b
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is US$32b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of US$179, the company appears reasonably expensive at the time of writing. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.
Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at PPG Industries as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 7.0%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.058. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Although the valuation of a company is important, it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. What is the reason for the share price exceeding the intrinsic value? For PPG Industries, there are three further aspects you should further research:
- Risks: To that end, you should be aware of the 1 warning sign we've spotted with PPG Industries .
- Future Earnings: How does PPG's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the NYSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.
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