Ranpak Holdings (NYSE:PACK) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of PACK when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

PACK ($6.2) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] ($7.44)

PACK fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	1/6
Future Growth	0/6
Past Performance	0/6
Financial Health	2/6
Dividends	0/6

PACK Stock Overview

Ranpak Holdings Corp., together with its subsidiaries, provide product protection solutions for e-commerce and industrial supply chains in North America, Europe, and Asia.

Rewards

Trading at 16.7% below our estimate of its fair value

Risk Analysis

Currently unprofitable and not forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years

Volatile share price over the past 3 months

Ranpak Holdings Competitors

Pactiv Evergreen

NasdaqGS:PTVE

US$2.2b

Sonoco Products

NYSE:SON

US$6.4b

Graphic Packaging Holding

NYSE:GPK

US$7.3b

Sealed Air

NYSE:SEE

US$8.5b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Ranpak Holdings
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	US$6.20
52 Week High	US$42.97
52 Week Low	US$4.72
Beta	1.37
1 Month Change	-1.43%
3 Month Change	-47.14%
1 Year Change	-79.55%
3 Year Change	18.55%
5 Year Change	n/a
Change since IPO	-35.08%

Shareholder Returns

	PACK	US Packaging	US Market
7D	0%	2.3%	1.4%
1Y	-79.5%	-12.7%	-8.4%

Return vs Industry: PACK underperformed the US Packaging industry which returned -12.5% over the past year.

Return vs Market: PACK underperformed the US Market which returned -9% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is PACK's price volatile compared to industry and market?
PACK volatility
PACK Average Weekly Movement	13.5%
Packaging Industry Average Movement	4.8%
Market Average Movement	7.6%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market	17.1%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market	3.1%

Stable Share Price: PACK is more volatile than 75% of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 14% a week.

Volatility Over Time: PACK's weekly volatility (14%) has been stable over the past year, but is still higher than 75% of US stocks.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1972	875	Omar Asali	https://www.ranpak.com

Ranpak Holdings Corp., together with its subsidiaries, provide product protection solutions for e-commerce and industrial supply chains in North America, Europe, and Asia. The company offers protective packaging solutions, such as void-fill protective systems that convert paper to fill empty spaces in secondary packages and protect objects under the FillPak brand; cushioning protective systems, which convert paper into cushioning pads under the PadPak brand; and wrapping protective systems that create pads or paper mesh to wrap and protect fragile items, as well as to line boxes and provide separation when shipping various objects under the WrapPak, Geami, and ReadyRoll brands. The company’s products also include line automation products, which help end users automate the void filling and box closure processes after product packing is complete.

Ranpak Holdings Fundamentals Summary

How do Ranpak Holdings's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
PACK fundamental statistics
Market Cap	US$508.24m
Earnings (TTM)	-US$29.30m
Revenue (TTM)	US$375.50m

1.4x

P/S Ratio

-17.3x

P/E Ratio

Is PACK overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
PACK income statement (TTM)
Revenue	US$375.50m
Cost of Revenue	US$245.70m
Gross Profit	US$129.80m
Other Expenses	US$159.10m
Earnings	-US$29.30m

Last Reported Earnings

Jun 30, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	-0.36
Gross Margin	34.57%
Net Profit Margin	-7.80%
Debt/Equity Ratio	62.6%

How did PACK perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is PACK undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

Price-To-Sales vs Peers
Price-To-Sales vs Industry
Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for PACK?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for PACK. This is calculated by dividing PACK's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is PACK's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	US$508.24m

PACK key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	2.2x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	14.2x
PEG Ratio	n/a

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does PACK's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

PACK PS Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PS ratio for PACK vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PS	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	0.9x
PTVE Pactiv Evergreen	0.4x	2.1%	US$2.2b
SON Sonoco Products	1x	2.0%	US$6.4b
GPK Graphic Packaging Holding	0.9x	2.6%	US$7.3b
SEE Sealed Air	1.5x	3.5%	US$8.5b
PACK Ranpak Holdings	1.4x	5.4%	US$508.2m

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: PACK is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.4x) compared to the peer average (0.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does PACK's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Packaging Industry?

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: PACK is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.4x) compared to the US Packaging industry average (0.9x)

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is PACK's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

PACK PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio	1.4x
Fair PS Ratio	1.3x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: PACK is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.3x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of PACK when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: PACK ($6.2) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($7.44)

Significantly Below Fair Value: PACK is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Future Growth

How is Ranpak Holdings forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 4 analysts?

Future Growth Score

0/6

Future Growth Score 0/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

19.8%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: PACK is forecast to remain unprofitable over the next 3 years.

Earnings vs Market: PACK is forecast to remain unprofitable over the next 3 years.

High Growth Earnings: PACK is forecast to remain unprofitable over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: PACK's revenue (5.4% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (7.8% per year).

High Growth Revenue: PACK's revenue (5.4% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: Insufficient data to determine if PACK's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time

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Past Performance

How has Ranpak Holdings performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

0/6

Past Performance Score 0/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

-31.4%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: PACK is currently unprofitable.

Growing Profit Margin: PACK is currently unprofitable.

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: PACK is unprofitable, and losses have increased over the past 5 years at a rate of 31.4% per year.

Accelerating Growth: Unable to compare PACK's earnings growth over the past year to its 5-year average as it is currently unprofitable

Earnings vs Industry: PACK is unprofitable, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the Packaging industry (10%).

Return on Equity

High ROE: PACK has a negative Return on Equity (-4.73%), as it is currently unprofitable.

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Financial Health

How is Ranpak Holdings's financial position?

Financial Health Score

2/6

Financial Health Score 2/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Stable Cash Runway
Forecast Cash Runway

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: PACK's short term assets ($171.4M) exceed its short term liabilities ($53.6M).

Long Term Liabilities: PACK's short term assets ($171.4M) do not cover its long term liabilities ($491.4M).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: PACK's net debt to equity ratio (52.6%) is considered high.

Reducing Debt: Insufficient data to determine if PACK's debt to equity ratio has reduced over the past 5 years.

Balance Sheet

Cash Runway Analysis

For companies that have on average been loss making in the past we assess whether they have at least 1 year of cash runway.

Stable Cash Runway: PACK has sufficient cash runway for more than a year based on its current free cash flow.

Forecast Cash Runway: Insufficient data to determine if PACK has enough cash runway if its free cash flow continues to grow or shrink based on historical rates.

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Dividend

What is Ranpak Holdings's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

0/6

Dividend Score 0/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Cash Flow Coverage

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate PACK's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate PACK's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if PACK's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if PACK's dividend payments have been increasing.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: Insufficient data to calculate payout ratio to determine if its dividend payments are covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: Unable to calculate sustainability of dividends as PACK has not reported any payouts.

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Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

2.6yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Omar Asali (52 yo)

3yrs

Tenure

US$23,354,484

Compensation

Mr. Omar Marwan Asali is a Founder of Ranpak Holdings Corp. and has been its Chairman since June 2019 and serves as its Director since 2019. Mr. Asali serves as a Director of Pickle Robot Company. He serve...

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: PACK's management team is considered experienced (2.6 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: PACK's board of directors are considered experienced (3.2 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: PACK insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/08/18 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/08/18 00:00
Earnings	2022/06/30
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31