A Look at Louisiana-Pacific (LPX) Valuation After Sharp Earnings Estimate Cuts and Zacks Rank Downgrade

Louisiana-Pacific (LPX) just landed on Zacks.com’s most searched list after analysts sharply cut current quarter earnings estimates. This move pushed the stock into a Zacks Rank 5, a signal many investors treat as a tactical warning.

See our latest analysis for Louisiana-Pacific.

Those weaker earnings revisions arrive after a choppy stretch, with a 90 day share price return of around minus 17 percent and a one year total shareholder return of roughly minus 31 percent. This suggests that momentum is clearly fading for now.

If analyst caution around Louisiana Pacific has you reassessing your watchlist, this could be a smart moment to scan the market for fast growing stocks with high insider ownership.

Yet with shares still about 24 percent below the average analyst target and long term returns solidly positive, should investors treat LPX’s pullback as a mispriced value setup, or as a stock that already reflects its future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 22.4% Undervalued

With the narrative fair value sitting at about $105.88 versus a last close of $82.19, the implied upside hinges on a demanding growth path.

In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 20.1x on those 2028 earnings, down from 22.4x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the US Forestry industry at 22.4x.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see how steady revenue expansion, rising margins, and richer earnings combine to support that valuation reset? The full narrative unpacks every assumption driving that upside case.

Result: Fair Value of $105.88 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, there is still meaningful risk that prolonged housing weakness and persistently low OSB pricing could undercut the growth and margin story behind that potential upside.

Find out about the key risks to this Louisiana-Pacific narrative.

Another Lens on LPX’s Valuation

While the narrative fair value points to upside, our ratio work tells a sharper story. LPX trades on a 26.5x price to earnings ratio, richer than the global forestry average of 18.5x and even above its 25.6x fair ratio. This hints at a slimmer margin for error if growth stumbles.

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own Louisiana-Pacific Narrative

If you want to challenge this outlook and dig into the numbers on your own terms, you can build a custom narrative in minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Louisiana-Pacific research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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