Is HL fairly valued?
We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second ‘steady growth’ period. To start off with we need to estimate the next five years of cash flows. Where possible I use analyst estimates, but when these aren’t available I have extrapolated the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the year before. For this growth rate I used the average annual growth rate over the past five years, but capped at a reasonable level. I then discount this to its value today and sum up the total to get the present value of these cash flows.
5-year cash flow estimate
|Levered FCF ($, Millions)||$62.48||$111.93||$148.30||$164.55||$182.59|
|Source||Analyst x4||Analyst x4||Analyst x2||Extrapolated @ (10.96%)||Extrapolated @ (10.96%)|
|Present Value Discounted @ 12.73%||$55.42||$88.07||$103.51||$101.88||$100.27|
Present Value of 5-year Cash Flow (PVCF)= $449
The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business’s cash flow after the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of the GDP. In this case I have used the 10-year government bond rate (2.5%). In the same way as with the 5-year ‘growth’ period, we discount this to today’s value at a cost of equity of 12.7%.
Terminal Value (TV) = FCF2022 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = $183 × (1 + 2.5%) ÷ (12.7% – 2.5%) = $1,823
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV) = TV / (1 + r)5 = $1,823 / ( 1 + 12.7%)5 = $1,001
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the cash flows, which in this case is $1,450. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. If the stock is an depositary receipt (represents a specified number of shares in a foreign corporation) or ADR then we use the equivalent number. This results in an intrinsic value of $3.62, which, compared to the current share price of $3.96, we see that Hecla Mining is fair value, maybe slightly overvalued at the time of writing.
The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. You don’t have to agree with my inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. Because we are looking at Hecla Mining as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighed average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation I’ve used 12.7%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.363. This is derived from the Bottom-Up Beta method based on comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Although the valuation of a company is important, it shouldn’t be the only metric you look at when researching a company. For HL, I’ve compiled three relevant factors you should look at:
- Financial Health: Does HL have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.
- Future Earnings: How does HL’s growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other High Quality Alternatives: Are there other high quality stocks you could be holding instead of HL? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow for every stock on the NYSE every 6 hours. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.