A Look at Warrior Met Coal’s (HCC) Valuation Following Strong Q3 Results and Blue Creek Progress

Warrior Met Coal (HCC) topped expectations in its third-quarter 2025 earnings report, posting stronger than anticipated revenue and earnings per share. UBS responded by maintaining its Neutral stance and raising its outlook after the company’s continued operational momentum.

See our latest analysis for Warrior Met Coal.

Shares of Warrior Met Coal have gained momentum recently, with a 20.3% share price return over the past month and a 31.2% gain over the last 90 days, as investors respond positively to the company’s strong operational updates and project de-risking. Over the longer term, the stock boasts a robust track record, delivering a 12.99% total shareholder return in the past year and an impressive 126% total return over three years. This is clear evidence that confidence is building behind the company’s growth story.

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Still, with the stock’s strong rally and a price now approaching analysts’ targets, investors must ask whether there is real value left on the table or if the market has already factored in the company’s next phase of growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 3.3% Undervalued

With the latest consensus narrative projecting a fair value of $80 for Warrior Met Coal, the last close price of $77.38 is just below this target. This suggests analysts see a small but meaningful upside. Here’s a catalyst the narrative identifies as central to the company’s thesis.

"The ahead-of-schedule and on-budget launch of the Blue Creek longwall in early Q1 2026 accelerates Warrior Met Coal's transition from capital investment to higher-volume revenue generation. This unlocks increased production capacity along with lower-cost, higher-quality tons, positioning the company to grow both revenues and net margins as volumes ramp and cost efficiencies are realized."

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what’s fueling this valuation? The narrative's bold case leans on a transformative project, bets on margin expansion, and assumptions that could surprise even seasoned market watchers. Which crucial financial projection tips the scales? Only the full narrative has the details.

Result: Fair Value of $80 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent weakness in global steel demand or increased exposure to price competition in key Asian markets could quickly erode the company’s margin outlook.

Find out about the key risks to this Warrior Met Coal narrative.

Another View: What Multiples Say

Taking a closer look at Warrior Met Coal’s valuation through the lens of the price-to-earnings ratio reveals a different story. Warrior Met’s P/E stands at 115.7x, which is much higher than the industry average of 21.4x, its peer average of 35x, and notably above the fair ratio of 73.9x. Such a large gap may point to expectations that are already baked in and could raise the risk of a pullback if future growth falls short. Could this signal that the stock’s current price reflects more optimism than value?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own Warrior Met Coal Narrative

If this perspective doesn't quite align with your own research style, consider diving into the numbers and shaping your own view in just a few minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your Warrior Met Coal research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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