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CF Industries Holdings

NYSE:CF
Snowflake Description

Established dividend payer with adequate balance sheet.

The Snowflake is generated from 30 checks in 5 different areas, read more below.
CF
NYSE
$10B
Market Cap
  1. Home
  2. US
  3. Materials
Company description

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. manufactures and distributes nitrogen fertilizers and other nitrogen products worldwide. The last earnings update was 49 days ago. More info.


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CF Share Price and Events
7 Day Returns
2.9%
NYSE:CF
0.1%
US Chemicals
1.2%
US Market
1 Year Returns
3.5%
NYSE:CF
-10.5%
US Chemicals
2.3%
US Market
CF Shareholder Return
  7 Day 30 Day 90 Day 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year
CF Industries Holdings (CF) 2.9% 10.4% 19.1% 3.5% 68.1% -3.8%
US Chemicals 0.1% 1.9% -6.9% -10.5% 17.2% 6.6%
US Market 1.2% 2% 2% 2.3% 37.9% 39.8%
1 Year Return vs Industry and Market
  • CF outperformed the Chemicals industry which returned -10.5% over the past year.
  • CF outperformed the Market in United States of America which returned 2.3% over the past year.
Price Volatility
CF
Industry
5yr Volatility vs Market

Value

 Is CF Industries Holdings undervalued based on future cash flows and its price relative to the stock market?

Value is all about what a company is worth versus what price it is available for. If you went into a grocery store and all the bananas were on sale at half price, they could be considered undervalued.
INTRINSIC VALUE BASED ON FUTURE CASH FLOWS
Here we compare the current share price of CF Industries Holdings to its discounted cash flow analysis.value.

The discounted cash flow value is simply looking at what the company is worth today, based on estimates of how much money it is expected to make in the future.
Raw Data

Below are the data sources, inputs and calculation used to determine the intrinsic value for CF Industries Holdings.

NYSE:CF Discounted Cash Flow Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
Valuation Model 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
Levered Free Cash Flow Average of 18 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global) See below
Discount Rate (Cost of Equity) See below 9.5%
Perpetual Growth Rate 10-Year US Government Bond Rate 2.7%

An important part of a discounted cash flow is the discount rate, below we explain how it has been calculated.

Calculation of Discount Rate/ Cost of Equity for NYSE:CF
Data Point Calculation/ Source Result
Risk-Free Rate 10-Year US Govt Bond Rate 2.7%
Equity Risk Premium S&P Global 6%
Chemicals Unlevered Beta Simply Wall St/ S&P Global 0.88
Re-levered Beta = Unlevered beta (1 + (1- tax rate) (Debt/Equity))
= 0.875 (1 + (1- 21%) (48.55%))
1.141
Levered Beta Levered Beta limited to 0.8 to 2.0
(practical range for a stable firm)
1.14
Discount Rate/ Cost of Equity = Cost of Equity = Risk Free Rate + (Levered Beta * Equity Risk Premium)
= 2.73% + (1.141 * 5.96%)
9.53%

Discounted Cash Flow Calculation for NYSE:CF using 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Model

The calculations below outline how an intrinsic value for CF Industries Holdings is arrived at by discounting future cash flows to their present value using the 2 stage method. We try to start with analysts estimates of free cash flow, however if these are not available we use the most recent financial results. In the 1st stage we continue to grow the free cash flow over a 10 year period, with the growth rate trending towards the perpetual growth rate used in the 2nd stage. The 2nd stage assumes the company grows at a stable rate into perpetuity.

NYSE:CF DCF 1st Stage: Next 10 year cash flow forecast
Levered FCF (USD, Millions) Source Present Value
Discounted (@ 9.53%)
2019 1,059.63 Analyst x10 967.42
2020 1,125.89 Analyst x9 938.46
2021 1,175.88 Analyst x5 894.84
2022 1,163.40 Analyst x2 808.30
2023 1,164.23 Est @ 0.07% 738.49
2024 1,174.35 Est @ 0.87% 680.09
2025 1,191.11 Est @ 1.43% 629.77
2026 1,212.77 Est @ 1.82% 585.42
2027 1,238.14 Est @ 2.09% 545.66
2028 1,266.41 Est @ 2.28% 509.55
Present value of next 10 years cash flows $7,298.01
NYSE:CF DCF 2nd Stage: Terminal Value
Calculation Result
Terminal Value = FCF2028 × (1 + g) ÷ (Discount Rate – g)
= $1,266.41 × (1 + 2.73%) ÷ (9.53% – 2.73%)
$19,128.05
Present Value of Terminal Value = Terminal Value ÷ (1 + r)10
= $19,128.05 ÷ (1 + 9.53%)10
$7,696.32
NYSE:CF Total Equity Value
Calculation Result
Total Equity Value = Present value of next 10 years cash flows + Terminal Value
= $7,298.01 + $7,696.32
$14,994.33
Equity Value per Share
(USD)
= Total value / Shares Outstanding
= $14,994.33 / 221.08
$67.82
NYSE:CF Discount to Share Price
Calculation Result
Value per share (USD) From above. $67.82
Current discount Discount to share price of $46.47
= -1 x ($46.47 - $67.82) / $67.82
31.5%

Learn more about our DCF calculations in Simply Wall St’s analysis model .

Current Discount
Amount off the current price CF Industries Holdings is available for.
Intrinsic value
31%
Share price is $46.47 vs Future cash flow value of $67.82
Current Discount Checks
For CF Industries Holdings to be considered undervalued it must be available for at least 20% below the current price. Less than 40% is even better.
  • CF Industries Holdings's share price is below the future cash flow value, and at a moderate discount (> 20%).
  • CF Industries Holdings's share price is below the future cash flow value, but not at a substantial discount (< 40%).
PRICE RELATIVE TO MARKET
We can also value a company based on what the stock market is willing to pay for it. This is similar to the price of fruit (e.g. Mangoes or Avocados) increasing when they are out of season, or how much your home is worth.

The amount the stock market is willing to pay for CF Industries Holdings's earnings, growth and assets is considered below, and whether this is a fair price.
Price based on past earnings
Are CF Industries Holdings's earnings available for a low price, and how does this compare to other companies in the same industry?
Raw Data
NYSE:CF PE (Price to Earnings) Ratio Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
Earnings Per Share * Company Filings (2019-03-31) in USD $1.38
NYSE:CF Share Price ** NYSE (2019-06-19) in USD $46.47
United States of America Chemicals Industry PE Ratio Median Figure of 68 Publicly-Listed Chemicals Companies 17.96x
United States of America Market PE Ratio Median Figure of 3,092 Publicly-Listed Companies 17.87x

* Trailing twelve months (TTM) annual GAAP earnings per share excluding extraordinary items.

** Primary Listing of CF Industries Holdings.

NYSE:CF PE (Price to Earnings) Ratio Calculation
Calculation Outcome
PE Ratio

= NYSE:CF Share Price ÷ EPS (both in USD)

= 46.47 ÷ 1.38

33.71x

Learn more about our ratios and growth rates in Simply Wall St’s analysis model >

  • CF Industries Holdings is overvalued based on earnings compared to the US Chemicals industry average.
  • CF Industries Holdings is overvalued based on earnings compared to the United States of America market.
Price based on expected Growth
Does CF Industries Holdings's expected growth come at a high price?
Raw Data
NYSE:CF PEG (Price to Earnings to Growth) Ratio Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
PE Ratio See PE Ratio Section 33.71x
Net Income Annual Growth Rate See Future Growth Section.
Line of Best Fit* through Consensus Estimate Earnings of 18 Analysts
19.1%per year
United States of America Chemicals Industry PEG Ratio Median Figure of 49 Publicly-Listed Chemicals Companies 1.26x
United States of America Market PEG Ratio Median Figure of 2,128 Publicly-Listed Companies 1.53x

*Line of best fit is calculated by linear regression .

NYSE:CF PEG (Price to Earnings to Growth) Ratio Calculation
Calculation Outcome
PEG Ratio

= PE Ratio ÷ Net Income Annual Growth Rate

= 33.71x ÷ 19.1%

1.76x

Learn more about our ratios and growth rates in Simply Wall St’s analysis model >

  • CF Industries Holdings is poor value based on expected growth next year.
Price based on value of assets
What value do investors place on CF Industries Holdings's assets?
Raw Data
NYSE:CF PB (Price to Book) Ratio Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
Book Value per Share Company Filings (2019-03-31) in USD $13.34
NYSE:CF Share Price * NYSE (2019-06-19) in USD $46.47
United States of America Chemicals Industry PB Ratio Median Figure of 94 Publicly-Listed Chemicals Companies 2.05x
United States of America Market PB Ratio Median Figure of 5,246 Publicly-Listed Companies 1.8x
NYSE:CF PB (Price to Book) Ratio Calculation
Calculation Outcome
PB Ratio

= NYSE:CF Share Price ÷ Book Value per Share (both in USD)

= 46.47 ÷ 13.34

3.48x

* Primary Listing of CF Industries Holdings.

Learn more about our ratios and growth rates in Simply Wall St’s analysis model >

  • CF Industries Holdings is overvalued based on assets compared to the US Chemicals industry average.
X
Value checks
We assess CF Industries Holdings's value by looking at:
  1. Is the discounted cash flow value less than 20%, or 40% of the share price? (2 checks) ( Click here or on bar chart for details of DCF calculation. )
  2. Is the PE ratio less than the market average, and/ or less than the Chemicals industry average (and greater than 0)? (2 checks)
  3. Is the PEG ratio within a reasonable range (0 to 1)? (1 check)
  4. Is the PB ratio less than the Chemicals industry average (and greater than 0)? (1 check)
  5. CF Industries Holdings has a total score of 1/6, see the detailed checks below.

    Note: We use GAAP Earnings per Share in all our calculations including PE and PEG Ratio.

    Full details on the Value part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

Future Performance

 How is CF Industries Holdings expected to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 18 analysts?

The future performance of a company is measured in the same way as past performance, by looking at estimated growth and how much profit it is expected to make.

Future estimates come from professional analysts. Just like forecasting the weather, they don’t always get it right!
Annual Growth Rate
19.1%
Expected annual growth in earnings.
Earnings growth vs Low Risk Savings
Is CF Industries Holdings expected to grow at an attractive rate?
  • CF Industries Holdings's earnings growth is expected to exceed the low risk savings rate of 2.7%.
Growth vs Market Checks
  • CF Industries Holdings's earnings growth is expected to exceed the United States of America market average.
  • CF Industries Holdings's revenue growth is positive but not above the United States of America market average.
Annual Growth Rates Comparison
Raw Data
NYSE:CF Future Growth Rates Data Sources
Data Point Source Value (per year)
NYSE:CF Future Earnings Growth Rate Line of Best Fit* through Consensus Estimate Earnings of 18 Analysts 19.1%
NYSE:CF Future Revenue Growth Rate Line of Best Fit* through Consensus Estimate Revenue of 18 Analysts 3.7%
United States of America Chemicals Industry Earnings Growth Rate Market Cap Weighted Average 11.5%
United States of America Chemicals Industry Revenue Growth Rate Market Cap Weighted Average 4.7%
United States of America Market Earnings Growth Rate Market Cap Weighted Average 13.9%
United States of America Market Revenue Growth Rate Market Cap Weighted Average 7.4%

*Line of best fit is calculated by linear regression .

Industry and Market average data is calculated daily.

Learn more about our growth rate calculations in Simply Wall St’s analysis model.

Analysts growth expectations
Raw Data
NYSE:CF Analysts Growth Expectations Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
Past Financials Company Filings (2 months ago) See Below
Future Estimates Average of up to 18 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global) See Below
All numbers in USD Millions and using Trailing twelve months (TTM) annual period rather than quarterly.
NYSE:CF Future Estimates Data
Date (Data in USD Millions) Revenue Cash Flow Net Income * Avg. No. Analysts
2022-12-31 5,193 1,469 622 2
2021-12-31 5,042 1,647 758 9
2020-12-31 4,964 1,663 616 18
2019-12-31 4,703 1,610 481 18
NYSE:CF Past Financials Data
Date (Data in USD Millions) Revenue Cash Flow Net Income *
2019-03-31 4,473 1,521 317
2018-12-31 4,429 1,497 290
2018-09-30 4,396 1,473 706
2018-06-30 4,226 1,042 589
2018-03-31 4,050 1,557 444
2017-12-31 4,130 1,631 358
2017-09-30 3,898 1,427 -427
2017-06-30 3,708 1,358 -370
2017-03-31 3,718 627 -326
2016-12-31 3,685 617 -277
2016-09-30 3,933 724 70
2016-06-30 4,181 1,154 190

*GAAP earnings excluding extraordinary items.

Super high growth metrics
High Growth Checks
  • CF Industries Holdings's earnings are expected to grow by 19.1% yearly, however this is not considered high growth (20% yearly).
  • CF Industries Holdings's revenue is expected to grow by 3.7% yearly, however this is not considered high growth (20% yearly).
Past and Future Earnings per Share
The accuracy of the analysts who estimate the future performance data can be gauged below. We look back 3 years and see if they were any good at predicting what actually occurred. We also show the highest and lowest estimates looking forward to see if there is a wide range.
Raw Data
NYSE:CF Past and Future Earnings per Share
Data Point Source Value
Past Financials Company Filings (2 months ago) See Below
Future Estimates Average of up to 18 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global) See Below

All data from CF Industries Holdings Company Filings, last reported 2 months ago, and in Trailing twelve months (TTM) annual period rather than quarterly.

NYSE:CF Future Estimates Data
Date (Data in USD Millions) EPS * EPS High Estimate EPS Low Estimate Avg. No. Analysts
2022-12-31 2.90 2.90 2.90 1.00
2021-12-31 3.87 4.79 2.90 4.00
2020-12-31 2.92 3.51 2.20 10.00
2019-12-31 2.13 2.43 1.84 10.00
NYSE:CF Past Financials Data
Date (Data in USD Millions) EPS *
2019-03-31 1.38
2018-12-31 1.25
2018-09-30 3.02
2018-06-30 2.52
2018-03-31 1.90
2017-12-31 1.53
2017-09-30 -1.83
2017-06-30 -1.59
2017-03-31 -1.40
2016-12-31 -1.19
2016-09-30 0.30
2016-06-30 0.81

*GAAP earnings excluding extraordinary items.

Performance in 3 years
In the same way as past performance we look at the future estimated return (profit) compared to the available funds. We do this looking forward 3 years.
  • CF Industries Holdings is not expected to efficiently use shareholders’ funds in the future (Return on Equity less than 20%).
X
Future performance checks
We assess CF Industries Holdings's future performance by looking at:
  1. Is the annual earnings growth rate expected to beat the low risk savings rate, plus a premium to keep pace with inflation?
  2. Is the annual earnings growth rate expected to beat the average growth rate in earnings of the United States of America market? (1 check)
  3. Is the annual revenue growth rate expected to beat the average growth rate in revenue of the United States of America market? (1 check)
  4. Is the annual earnings growth rate expected to be above 20%? (1 check)
  5. Is the annual revenue growth rate expected to be above 20%? (1 check)
  6. Is the Return on Equity in 3 years expected to be over 20%? (1 check)
Some of the above checks will fail if the company is expected to be loss making in the relevant year.
CF Industries Holdings has a total score of 2/6, see the detailed checks below.

Note 1: We use GAAP Net Income Excluding Exceptional Items for our Earnings in all our calculations.

Full details on the Future part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

Past Performance

  How has CF Industries Holdings performed over the past 5 years?

The past performance of a company can be measured by how much growth it has experienced and how much profit it makes relative to the funds and assets it has available.
Past earnings growth
Below we compare CF Industries Holdings's growth in the last year to its industry (Chemicals).
Past Earnings growth analysis
We also check if the company has grown in the past 5 years, and whether it has maintained that growth in the year.
  • CF Industries Holdings's year on year earnings growth rate was negative over the past 5 years and the most recent earnings are below average.
  • CF Industries Holdings's 1-year earnings growth is negative, it can't be compared to the 5-year average.
  • CF Industries Holdings's 1-year earnings growth is negative, it can't be compared to the US Chemicals industry average.
Earnings and Revenue History
CF Industries Holdings's revenue and profit over the past 5 years is shown below, any years where they have experienced a loss will show up in red.
Raw Data

All data from CF Industries Holdings Company Filings, last reported 2 months ago, and in Trailing twelve months (TTM) annual period rather than quarterly.

NYSE:CF Past Revenue, Cash Flow and Net Income Data
Date (Data in USD Millions) Revenue Net Income * G+A Expenses R&D Expenses
2019-03-31 4,473.00 317.00 215.00
2018-12-31 4,429.00 290.00 212.00
2018-09-30 4,396.00 706.00 209.00
2018-06-30 4,226.00 589.00 205.00
2018-03-31 4,050.00 444.00 205.00
2017-12-31 4,130.00 358.00 196.00
2017-09-30 3,898.00 -427.00 177.00
2017-06-30 3,708.00 -370.00 172.00
2017-03-31 3,718.00 -326.00 175.00
2016-12-31 3,685.00 -277.00 177.00
2016-09-30 3,933.00 70.00 191.00
2016-06-30 4,181.00 190.00 189.00
2016-03-31 4,358.00 495.00 175.00
2015-12-31 4,308.00 700.00 170.00
2015-09-30 4,409.50 911.30 152.50
2015-06-30 4,402.90 952.20 148.70
2015-03-31 4,564.60 912.80 150.20
2014-12-31 4,743.00 1,390.00 152.00
2014-09-30 4,853.00 1,477.80 164.40
2014-06-30 5,028.60 1,581.00 158.40
2014-03-31 5,270.80 1,766.60 163.40
2013-12-31 5,474.70 1,464.60 166.00
2013-09-30 5,629.80 1,609.50 161.20
2013-06-30 5,892.20 1,778.70 165.50
2013-03-31 5,912.90 1,886.80 162.30
2012-12-31 6,104.00 1,848.70 151.80
2012-09-30 6,341.00 1,816.90 148.40
2012-06-30 6,385.40 1,744.50 142.40

*GAAP earnings excluding extraordinary items.

Performance last year
We want to ensure a company is making the most of what it has available. This is done by comparing the return (profit) to a company's available funds, assets and capital.
  • CF Industries Holdings has not efficiently used shareholders’ funds last year (Return on Equity less than 20%).
  • CF Industries Holdings used its assets less efficiently than the US Chemicals industry average last year based on Return on Assets.
  • CF Industries Holdings's use of capital deteriorated last year versus 3 years ago (Return on Capital Employed).
X
Past performance checks
We assess CF Industries Holdings's performance over the past 5 years by checking for:
  1. Has earnings increased in past 5 years? (1 check)
  2. Has the earnings growth in the last year exceeded that of the Chemicals industry? (1 check)
  3. Is the recent earnings growth over the last year higher than the average annual growth over the past 5 years? (1 check)
  4. Is the Return on Equity (ROE) higher than 20%? (1 check)
  5. Is the Return on Assets (ROA) above industry average? (1 check)
  6. Has the Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) increased from 3 years ago? (1 check)
The above checks will fail if the company has reported a loss in the most recent earnings report. Some checks require at least 3 or 5 years worth of data.
CF Industries Holdings has a total score of 0/6, see the detailed checks below.

Note: We use GAAP Net Income excluding extraordinary items in all our calculations.

Full details on the Past part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

Health

 How is CF Industries Holdings's financial health and their level of debt?

A company's financial position is much like your own financial position, it includes everything you own (assets) and owe (liabilities).

The boxes below represent the relative size of what makes up CF Industries Holdings's finances.

The net worth of a company is the difference between its assets and liabilities.
Net Worth
  • CF Industries Holdings is able to meet its short term (1 year) commitments with its holdings of cash and other short term assets.
  • CF Industries Holdings's long term commitments exceed its cash and other short term assets.
Balance sheet
This treemap shows a more detailed breakdown of CF Industries Holdings's finances. If any of them are yellow this indicates they may be out of proportion and red means they relate to one of the checks below.
Assets
Liabilities and shares
The 'shares' portion represents any funds contributed by the owners (shareholders) and any profits.
  • High level of physical assets or inventory.
  • Debt is not covered by short term assets, assets are 0.3x debt.
Historical Debt
Nearly all companies have debt. Debt in itself isn’t bad, however if the debt is too high, or the company can’t afford to pay the interest on its debts this may have impacts in the future.

The graphic below shows equity (available funds) and debt, we ideally want to see the red area (debt) decreasing.

If there is any debt we look at the companies capability to repay it, and whether the level has increased over the past 5 years.
Raw Data

All data from CF Industries Holdings Company Filings, last reported 2 months ago.

NYSE:CF Past Debt and Equity Data
Date (Data in USD Millions) Total Equity Total Debt Cash & Short Term Investments
2019-03-31 5,670.00 4,988.00 671.00
2018-12-31 5,731.00 4,698.00 682.00
2018-09-30 6,163.00 4,697.00 1,022.00
2018-06-30 6,322.00 4,695.00 728.00
2018-03-31 6,665.00 4,693.00 936.00
2017-12-31 6,684.00 4,692.00 835.00
2017-09-30 6,240.00 5,786.00 1,992.00
2017-06-30 6,390.00 5,783.00 2,001.00
2017-03-31 6,383.00 5,780.00 1,312.00
2016-12-31 6,492.00 5,778.00 1,164.00
2016-09-30 6,980.00 5,540.00 1,554.00
2016-06-30 7,165.00 5,540.00 2,008.00
2016-03-31 7,194.00 5,539.00 2,689.00
2015-12-31 4,387.00 5,537.00 286.00
2015-09-30 4,467.50 5,592.60 943.20
2015-06-30 4,475.80 4,592.60 809.90
2015-03-31 4,418.50 4,592.50 1,778.80
2014-12-31 4,572.50 4,592.50 1,996.60
2014-09-30 4,855.30 4,592.40 2,651.20
2014-06-30 4,845.10 4,592.40 2,194.10
2014-03-31 5,308.30 4,592.30 3,530.20
2013-12-31 5,438.40 3,098.10 1,710.80
2013-09-30 5,462.00 3,098.00 2,286.20
2013-06-30 5,343.40 3,098.00 1,934.10
2013-03-31 6,117.70 1,604.80 2,210.30
2012-12-31 6,282.20 1,605.00 2,274.90
2012-09-30 5,978.10 1,645.50 2,221.30
2012-06-30 5,500.20 1,604.80 1,383.00
  • CF Industries Holdings's level of debt (82.9%) compared to net worth is high (greater than 40%).
  • The level of debt compared to net worth has been reduced over the past 5 years (86.6% vs 82.9% today).
  • Debt is well covered by operating cash flow (32.4%, greater than 20% of total debt).
  • Interest payments on debt are well covered by earnings (EBIT is 3.2x coverage).
X
Financial health checks
We assess CF Industries Holdings's financial health by checking for:
  1. Are short term assets greater than short term liabilities? (1 check)
  2. Are short term assets greater than long term liabilities? (1 check)
  3. Has the debt to equity ratio increased in the past 5 years? (1 check)
  4. Is the debt to equity ratio over 40%? (1 check)
  5. Is the debt covered by operating cash flow? (1 check)
  6. Are earnings greater than 5x the interest on debt (if company pays interest at all)? (1 check)
  7. CF Industries Holdings has a total score of 4/6, see the detailed checks below.
For companies that are loss making and have been so on average in the past we replace the last 2 checks with:
  1. Does cash and short term investments cover stable operating expenses (recurring G&A and R&D) for more than 3 years? (1 check)
  2. Does cash and short term investments cover growing operating expenses (recurring G&A and R&D) for more than 3 years? (1 check)


Full details on the Health part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

Dividends

 What is CF Industries Holdings's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividends are regular cash payments to you from the company, similar to a bank paying you interest on a savings account.
Annual Dividend Income
Dividend payments
2.58%
Current annual income from CF Industries Holdings dividends. Estimated to be 2.61% next year.
If you bought $2,000 of CF Industries Holdings shares you are expected to receive $52 in your first year as a dividend.
Dividend Amount
Here we look how much dividend is being paid, if any. Is it above what you can get in a savings account? It is up there with the best dividend paying companies?
  • CF Industries Holdings's pays a higher dividend yield than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in United States of America (1.44%).
  • CF Industries Holdings's dividend is below the markets top 25% of dividend payers in United States of America (3.69%).
Annualized Historical and Future Dividends
It is important to see if the dividend for a company is stable, and not wildly increasing/decreasing each year. This graph shows you the historical rate to count toward your assessment of the stock.

We also check to see if the dividend has increased in the past 10 years.
Raw Data
NYSE:CF Annualized Past and Future Dividends
Data Point Source Value
Past Annualized Dividend Yield S&P Global Market Data See Below
Past Dividends per Share Company Filings/ Annualized Dividend Payments See Below
Future Dividends per Share Estimates Average of up to 18 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global) See Below
United States of America Chemicals Industry Average Dividend Yield Market Cap Weighted Average of 54 Stocks 2.3%
United States of America Market Average Dividend Yield Market Cap Weighted Average of 2011 Stocks 2.4%
United States of America Minimum Threshold Dividend Yield 10th Percentile 0.8%
United States of America Bottom 25% Dividend Yield 25th Percentile 1.4%
United States of America Top 25% Dividend Yield 75th Percentile 3.7%

Industry and Market average data is calculated daily.

Note all dividend per share amounts are annualized and not quarterly or other period.

NYSE:CF Future Dividends Estimate Data
Date (Data in $) Dividend per Share (annual) Avg. No. Analysts
2022-12-31 1.20 2.00
2021-12-31 1.22 10.00
2020-12-31 1.22 15.00
2019-12-31 1.20 15.00
NYSE:CF Past Annualized Dividends Data
Date (Data in $) Dividend per share (annual) Avg. Yield (%)
2019-04-26 1.200 2.815
2019-02-05 1.200 2.830
2018-10-11 1.200 2.683
2018-07-11 1.200 2.442
2018-04-30 1.200 2.861
2018-02-07 1.200 3.048
2017-10-10 1.200 3.079
2017-07-25 1.200 3.802
2017-04-27 1.200 4.306
2017-02-08 1.200 3.994
2016-10-11 1.200 4.155
2016-07-22 1.200 4.999
2016-04-25 1.200 4.284
2016-01-28 1.200 3.726
2015-10-14 1.200 2.874
2015-07-23 1.200 2.184
2015-04-29 1.200 1.918
2015-02-05 1.200 2.040
2014-10-17 1.200 2.202
2014-08-06 1.200 2.318
2014-05-01 0.800 1.632
2014-01-31 0.800 1.626
2013-10-17 0.800 1.776
2013-07-24 0.320 0.808
2013-04-30 0.320 0.863
2013-02-07 0.320 0.816
2012-10-19 0.320 0.761
2012-07-20 0.320 0.760
2012-04-27 0.320 0.894
2012-02-03 0.320 0.868
2011-10-21 0.320 1.023
2011-08-04 0.320 1.015
2011-04-29 0.080 0.274
2011-02-02 0.080 0.295
2010-10-21 0.080 0.314
2010-07-22 0.080 0.428
2010-05-03 0.080 0.581
2010-02-16 0.080 0.425
2009-10-22 0.080 0.447
2009-07-22 0.080 0.473

Learn more about our ratios and growth rates in Simply Wall St’s analysis model >

  • Dividends per share have been stable in the past 10 years.
  • Dividends per share have increased over the past 10 years.
Current Payout to shareholders
What portion of CF Industries Holdings's earnings are paid to the shareholders as a dividend.
  • Dividends paid are covered by earnings (1.1x coverage).
Future Payout to shareholders
  • Dividends after 3 years are expected to be well covered by earnings (2.7x coverage).
X
Income/ dividend checks
We assess CF Industries Holdings's dividend by checking for:
  1. Firstly is the company paying a notable dividend (greater than 0.8%) - if not then the rest of the checks are ignored.
  2. Is current dividend yield above the bottom 25% of dividend payers? (1 check)
  3. Is current dividend yield above the top 25% of dividend payers? (1 check)
  4. Have they paid a dividend for 10 years, and during this period has the dividend been volatile (drop of more than 25%)? (1 check)
  5. If they have paid a dividend for 10 years has it increased in this time? (1 check)
  6. How sustainable is the dividend, can CF Industries Holdings afford to pay it from its earnings today and in 3 years (Payout ratio less than 90%)? (2 checks)
  7. CF Industries Holdings has a total score of 5/6, see the detailed checks below.


Full details on the Dividends part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

Management

 What is the CEO of CF Industries Holdings's salary, the management and board of directors tenure and is there insider trading?

Management is one of the most important areas of a company. We look at unreasonable CEO compensation, how long the team and board of directors have been around for and insider trading.
CEO
Tony Will
COMPENSATION $7,758,005
AGE 52
TENURE AS CEO 5.4 years
CEO Bio

Mr. W. Anthony Will, also known as Tony, has been the Chief Executive Officer and President of CF Industries Holdings, Inc. since January 2, 2014. Mr. Will has been the Chief Executive Officer and President of Terra Nitrogen GP Inc., a wholly owned subsidiary of CF Industries Holdings, Inc. and the sole general partner of Terra Nitrogen Company, L.P. since January 1, 2014. He served as Senior Vice President of Manufacturing & Distribution at CF Industries Holdings, Inc. and Terra Nitrogen GP Inc. since January 2012 until January 2014. He served as Vice President of Manufacturing and Distribution of Terra Nitrogen GP Inc. from April 2010 to January 2012 and CF Industries Holdings, Inc. from March 2009 to December 2011. He served as Vice President of Corporate Development of CF Industries Holdings Inc. from April 2007 to March 2009. He joined CF Industries in 2007. Prior to that, Mr. Will was a Partner of Accenture Ltd. from April 2005 to December 2006. From January 2002 to August 2004, he served positions as Vice President of Business Development of Sears, Roebuck and Company. He served as Vice President of Strategy and Corporate Development of Fort James Corporation from October 1998 to January 2001. From January 2001 to January 2002, Mr. Will served as a Consultant of Egon Zehnder International, a global consulting firm. He served as a Manager of Boston Consulting Group. He served as Director at Terra Nitrogen Company from 2010 to January 2017. Mr. Will has been a Director of CF Industries Holdings, Inc. since January 2, 2014. He served as the Chairman and Director at Terra Nitrogen GP Inc. from June 2010 to February 5, 2016. He served as Director at Terra Industries Inc. from April 5, 2010 to April 15, 2010. Mr. Will holds a B.S. in Electrical Engineering from Iowa State University and he later earned his Master of Management Degree (MBA) at the J.L. Kellogg Graduate School of Management at Northwestern University.

CEO Compensation
  • Tony's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year, both up more than 20%.
  • Tony's remuneration is lower than average for companies of similar size in United States of America.
Management Team Tenure

Average tenure and age of the CF Industries Holdings management team in years:

3.5
Average Tenure
53
Average Age
  • The tenure for the CF Industries Holdings management team is about average.
Management Team

Tony Will

TITLE
President
COMPENSATION
$8M
AGE
52
TENURE
5.4 yrs

Dennis Kelleher

TITLE
Senior VP & CFO
COMPENSATION
$3M
AGE
54
TENURE
7.8 yrs

Douglas Barnard

TITLE
Senior VP
COMPENSATION
$2M
AGE
59
TENURE
15.4 yrs

Bert Frost

TITLE
Senior Vice President of Sales
COMPENSATION
$2M
AGE
53
TENURE
3.1 yrs

Christopher Bohn

TITLE
Senior Vice President of Manufacturing & Distribution
COMPENSATION
$2M
AGE
50
TENURE
3.5 yrs

Tom Grooms

TITLE
Chief Information Officer & VP
TENURE
3.3 yrs

Martin Jarosick

TITLE
Vice President of Investor Relations
TENURE
2.4 yrs

Mike McGrane

TITLE
Chief Compliance Officer
TENURE
3.4 yrs

Rosemary O'Brien

TITLE
Vice President of Public Affairs
AGE
66
TENURE
35.4 yrs

Sue Menzel

TITLE
Senior Vice President of Human Resources
AGE
53
TENURE
1.7 yrs
Board of Directors Tenure

Average tenure and age of the CF Industries Holdings board of directors in years:

5.3
Average Tenure
59
Average Age
  • The tenure for the CF Industries Holdings board of directors is about average.
Board of Directors

Steve Furbacher

TITLE
Chairman & Lead Independent Director
COMPENSATION
$412K
AGE
71
TENURE
5.1 yrs

Tony Will

TITLE
President
COMPENSATION
$8M
AGE
52
TENURE
5.4 yrs

Bob Arzbaecher

TITLE
Independent Director
COMPENSATION
$248K
AGE
58
TENURE
13.8 yrs

Stephen Hagge

TITLE
Independent Director
COMPENSATION
$248K
AGE
66
TENURE
9 yrs

Theresa Wagler

TITLE
Independent Director
COMPENSATION
$253K
AGE
48
TENURE
4.7 yrs

John Johnson

TITLE
Independent Director
COMPENSATION
$234K
AGE
69
TENURE
13.8 yrs

William Davisson

TITLE
Independent Director
COMPENSATION
$234K
AGE
70
TENURE
13.8 yrs

Anne Noonan

TITLE
Independent Director
COMPENSATION
$234K
AGE
55
TENURE
4 yrs

John Eaves

TITLE
Independent Director
COMPENSATION
$234K
AGE
60
TENURE
1.9 yrs

Michael Toelle

TITLE
Independent Director
COMPENSATION
$234K
AGE
55
TENURE
1.9 yrs
Who owns this company?
Recent Insider Trading
  • CF Industries Holdings insiders have only sold shares in the past 3 months.
Recent Insider Transactions
Announced Type Name Entity Role Start End Shares Max Price ($) Value ($)
09. May 19 Sell Stephen Furbacher Individual 07. May 19 07. May 19 -3,000 $42.01 $-126,030
13. Nov 18 Sell Stephen Furbacher Individual 09. Nov 18 09. Nov 18 -3,500 $52.45 $-183,561
31. Aug 18 Sell Stephen Furbacher Individual 29. Aug 18 29. Aug 18 -1,000 $51.43 $-51,431
08. Aug 18 Sell Stephen Furbacher Individual 06. Aug 18 06. Aug 18 -2,000 $49.52 $-99,042
X
Management checks
We assess CF Industries Holdings's management by checking for:
  1. Is the CEO's compensation unreasonable compared to market cap? (1 check)
  2. Has the CEO's compensation increased more than 20% whilst the EPS is down more then 20%? (1 check)
  3. Is the average tenure of the management team less than 2 years? (1 check)
  4. Is the average tenure of the board of directors team less than 3 years? (1 check)
  5. CF Industries Holdings has a total score of 0/6, this is not included on the snowflake, see the detailed checks below.


Note: We use the top 6 management executives and board members in our calculations.

Note 2: Insider trading include any internal stakeholders and these transactions .

Full details on the Management part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

News

Simply Wall St News

Have Insiders Been Selling CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:CF) Shares?

So shareholders might well want to know whether insiders have been buying or selling shares in CF Industries Holdings, Inc. … But logic dictates you should pay some attention to whether insiders are buying or selling shares. … As Peter Lynch said, 'insiders might sell their shares for any number of reasons, but they buy them for only one: they think the price will rise.' See our latest analysis for CF Industries Holdings CF Industries Holdings Insider Transactions Over The Last Year Over the last year, we can see that the biggest insider sale was by the Chairman &amp; Lead Independent Director, Stephen Furbacher, for US$184k worth of shares, at about US$52.45 per share.

Simply Wall St -

Here's What You Should Know About CF Industries Holdings, Inc.'s (NYSE:CF) 2.9% Dividend Yield

(NYSE:CF) from a dividend investor's perspective. Owning a strong business and reinvesting the dividends is widely seen as an attractive way of growing your wealth. If you are hoping to live on your dividends, it's important to be more stringent with your investments than the average punter. Regular readers know we like to apply the same approach to each dividend stock, and we hope you'll find our analysis useful. A 2.9% yield is nothing to get excited about, but investors probably think the long payment history suggests CF Industries Holdings has some staying power. The company also bought back stock equivalent to around 6.1% of market capitalisation this year. Before you buy any stock for its dividend however, you should always remember Warren Buffett's two rules: 1) Don't lose money, and 2) Remember rule #1. We'll run through some checks below to help with this. Click the interactive chart for our full dividend analysis NYSE:CF Historical Dividend Yield, May 28th 2019 Payout ratios Dividends are typically paid from company earnings. If a company pays more in dividends than it earned, then the dividend might become unsustainable - hardly an ideal situation. As a result, we should always investigate whether a company can afford its dividend, measured as a percentage of a company's net income after tax. Looking at the data, we can see that 87% of CF Industries Holdings's profits were paid out as dividends in the last 12 months. It's paying out most of its earnings, which limits the amount that can be reinvested in the business. This may indicate limited need for further capital within the business, or highlight a commitment to paying a dividend. In addition to comparing dividends against profits, we should inspect whether the company generated enough cash to pay its dividend. Of the free cash flow it generated last year, CF Industries Holdings paid out 26% as dividends, suggesting the dividend is affordable. It's positive to see that CF Industries Holdings's dividend is covered by both profits and cash flow, since this is generally a sign that the dividend is sustainable, and a lower payout ratio usually suggests a greater margin of safety before the dividend gets cut. Is CF Industries Holdings's Balance Sheet Risky? As CF Industries Holdings has a meaningful amount of debt, we need to check its balance sheet to see if the company might have debt risks. A rough way to check this is with these two simple ratios: a) net debt divided by EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation), and b) net interest cover. Net debt to EBITDA is a measure of a company's total debt. Net interest cover measures the ability to meet interest payments on debt. Essentially we check that a) a company does not have too much debt, and b) that it can afford to pay the interest. … For the purpose of this article, we only scrutinise the last decade of CF Industries Holdings's dividend payments. … Conclusion To summarise, shareholders should always check that CF Industries Holdings's dividends are affordable, that its dividend payments are relatively stable, and that it has decent prospects for growing its earnings and dividend.

Simply Wall St -

What Are Analysts Saying About CF Industries Holdings, Inc.'s (NYSE:CF) Future?

See our latest analysis for CF Industries Holdings What can we expect from CF Industries Holdings in the longer term? … I've plotted out each year's earnings expectations and inserted a line of best fit to calculate an annual growth rate from the slope in order to understand the overall trajectory of CF's earnings growth over these next few years. … NYSE:CF Past and Future Earnings, May 17th 2019 By 2022, CF's earnings should reach US$625m, from current levels of US$290m, resulting in an annual growth rate of 15%.

Simply Wall St -

The CF Industries Holdings (NYSE:CF) Share Price Is Up 40% And Shareholders Are Holding On

(NYSE:CF) share price return of 40% over three years lags the market return in the same period. … One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS). … During the three years of share price growth, CF Industries Holdings actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) drop 13% per year.

Simply Wall St -

Estimating The Fair Value Of CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:CF)

Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model. … Check out our latest analysis for CF Industries Holdings … The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period.

Simply Wall St -

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:CF): Time For A Financial Health Check

Small-cap and large-cap companies receive a lot of attention from investors, but mid-cap stocks like CF Industries Holdings, Inc. … Today we will look at CF’s financial liquidity and debt levels, which are strong indicators for whether the company can weather economic downturns or fund strategic acquisitions for future growth. … Don’t forget that this is a general and concentrated examination of CF Industries Holdings’s financial health, so you should conduct further analysis.

Simply Wall St -

Should CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:CF) Focus On Improving This Fundamental Metric?

CF Industries Holdings has a ROE of 7.5%, based on the last twelve months. … Another way to think of that is that for every $1 worth of equity in the company, it was able to earn $0.075. … Return on Equity = Net Profit ÷ Shareholders' Equity

Simply Wall St -

Don't Sell CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:CF) Before You Read This

We'll look at CF Industries Holdings, Inc.'s (NYSE:CF) P/E ratio and reflect on what it tells us about the company's share price. … CF Industries Holdings has a P/E ratio of 31.29, based on the last twelve months. … Price to Earnings Ratio = Price per Share ÷ Earnings per Share (EPS)

Simply Wall St -

How Much Are CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:CF) Insiders Taking Off The Table?

So we'll take a look at whether insiders have been buying or selling shares in CF Industries Holdings, Inc. … The Last 12 Months Of Insider Transactions At CF Industries Holdings. … All up, insiders sold more shares in CF Industries Holdings than they bought, over the last year

Simply Wall St -

Is CF Industries Holdings, Inc.’s (NYSE:CF) Cash Outlook Optimistic?

I will take you through CF Industries Holdings’s cash flow health and the risk-return concept based on the stock’s cash flow yield, using the most recent financial data. … CF Industries Holdings’s free cash flow (FCF) is the level of cash flow the business generates from its operational activities, after it reinvests in the company as capital expenditure. … The two ways to assess whether CF Industries Holdings’s FCF is sufficient, is to compare the FCF yield to the market index yield, as well as determine whether the top-line operating cash flows will continue to grow

Simply Wall St -

Company Info

Description

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. manufactures and distributes nitrogen fertilizers and other nitrogen products worldwide. Its principal nitrogen fertilizer products include ammonia, granular urea, urea ammonium nitrate solution, and ammonium nitrate. The company also offers diesel exhaust fluid, urea liquor, nitric acid, and aqua ammonia products, as well as compound fertilizer products with nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium. It primarily serves cooperatives, independent fertilizer distributors, traders, wholesalers, farmers, and industrial users. The company was founded in 1946 and is headquartered in Deerfield, Illinois.

Details
Name: CF Industries Holdings, Inc.
CF
Exchange: NYSE
Founded: 1946
$10,273,479,185
221,077,667
Website: http://www.cfindustries.com
Address: CF Industries Holdings, Inc.
4 Parkway North,
Suite 400,
Deerfield,
Illinois, 60015,
United States
Listings
Exchange Symbol Ticker Symbol Security Exchange Country Currency Listed on
NYSE CF Common Stock New York Stock Exchange US USD 11. Aug 2005
DB C4F Common Stock Deutsche Boerse AG DE EUR 11. Aug 2005
LSE 0HQU Common Stock London Stock Exchange GB USD 11. Aug 2005
Number of employees
Current staff
Staff numbers
3,000
CF Industries Holdings employees.
Industry
Fertilizers and Agricultural Chemicals
Materials
Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
Area Date (UTC time)
Company Analysis updated: 2019/06/20 00:01
End of day share price update: 2019/06/19 00:00
Last estimates confirmation: 2019/06/19
Last earnings filing: 2019/05/02
Last earnings reported: 2019/03/31
Last annual earnings reported: 2018/12/31


All dates and times in UTC. All financial data provided by Standard & Poor’s Capital IQ.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.