NYSE:CF

Stock Analysis Report

CF Industries Holdings

Executive Summary

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. manufactures and distributes nitrogen fertilizers and other nitrogen products worldwide.


Snowflake Analysis

Established dividend payer and good value.


Similar Companies

Share Price & News

How has CF Industries Holdings's share price performed over time and what events caused price changes?


Latest Share Price and Events

Stable Share Price: CF's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months.


Market Performance


7 Day Return

-8.2%

CF

-12.4%

US Chemicals

-10.6%

US Market


1 Year Return

-14.5%

CF

-16.4%

US Chemicals

5.2%

US Market

Return vs Industry: CF exceeded the US Chemicals industry which returned -16.4% over the past year.

Return vs Market: CF underperformed the US Market which returned 5.2% over the past year.


Shareholder returns

CFIndustryMarket
7 Day-8.2%-12.4%-10.6%
30 Day-10.3%-10.9%-8.5%
90 Day-21.8%-12.2%-4.6%
1 Year-12.2%-14.5%-4.7%-16.4%7.4%5.2%
3 Year27.8%16.7%12.3%-9.1%31.7%23.2%
5 Year-28.8%-39.4%23.7%-2.8%56.4%39.3%

Price Volatility Vs. Market

How volatile is CF Industries Holdings's share price compared to the market and industry in the last 5 years?


Simply Wall St News

Valuation

Is CF Industries Holdings undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

45.2%

Undervalued compared to fair value


Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below Fair Value: CF ($36.13) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($65.97)

Significantly Below Fair Value: CF is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: CF is good value based on its PE Ratio (16.1x) compared to the Chemicals industry average (20.3x).

PE vs Market: CF is good value based on its PE Ratio (16.1x) compared to the US market (16.9x).


Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: CF is poor value based on its PEG Ratio (4.6x)


Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: CF is overvalued based on its PB Ratio (2.7x) compared to the US Chemicals industry average (1.8x).


Next Steps

Future Growth

How is CF Industries Holdings forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 16 analysts?

3.5%

Forecasted annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts


Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: CF's forecast earnings growth (3.5% per year) is above the savings rate (1.7%).

Earnings vs Market: CF's earnings (3.5% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the US market (13% per year).

High Growth Earnings: CF's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: CF's revenue (1.8% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (7.6% per year).

High Growth Revenue: CF's revenue (1.8% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: CF's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time (20.3%)


Next Steps

Past Performance

How has CF Industries Holdings performed over the past 5 years?

-18.1%

Historical annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: CF has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: CF's current net profit margins (10.7%) are higher than last year (6.5%).


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: CF's earnings have declined by -18.1% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: CF's earnings growth over the past year (70%) exceeds its 5-year average (-18.1% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: CF earnings growth over the past year (70%) exceeded the Chemicals industry -15.9%.


Return on Equity

High ROE: CF's Return on Equity (11.5%) is considered low.


Next Steps

Financial Health

How is CF Industries Holdings's financial position?


Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: CF's short term assets ($974.0M) exceed its short term liabilities ($665.0M).

Long Term Liabilities: CF's short term assets ($974.0M) do not cover its long term liabilities ($5.9B).


Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: CF's debt to equity ratio (70.2%) is considered high.

Reducing Debt: CF's debt to equity ratio has reduced from 100.5% to 70.2% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: CF's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (38%).

Interest Coverage: CF's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (4.3x coverage).


Balance Sheet

Inventory Level: CF has a high level of physical assets or inventory.

Debt Coverage by Assets: CF's debt is not covered by short term assets (assets are 0.2x debt).


Next Steps

Dividend

What is CF Industries Holdings's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

3.32%

Current Dividend Yield


Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: CF's dividend (3.32%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the US market (1.59%).

High Dividend: CF's dividend (3.32%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the US market (4.09%).


Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: CF's dividends per share have been stable in the past 10 years.

Growing Dividend: CF's dividend payments have increased over the past 10 years.


Current Payout to Shareholders

Dividend Coverage: With its reasonable payout ratio (53.6%), CF's dividend payments are covered by earnings.


Future Payout to Shareholders

Future Dividend Coverage: CF's dividends in 3 years are forecast to be well covered by earnings (49.3% payout ratio).


Next Steps

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

3.9yrs

Average management tenure


CEO

Tony Will (53yo)

6.1yrs

Tenure

US$7,758,005

Compensation

Mr. W. Anthony Will, also known as Tony, has been the Chief Executive Officer and President of CF Industries Holdings, Inc. since January 2, 2014. Mr. Will has been the Chief Executive Officer and Presiden ...


CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Tony's total compensation ($USD7.76M) is about average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD6.47M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Tony's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year.


Leadership Team

NamePositionTenureCompensationOwnership
W. Will
President6.1yrsUS$7.76m0.24% $19.0m
Christopher Bohn
Senior VP & CFO0.4yrsUS$1.88m0.037% $2.9m
Douglas Barnard
Senior VP16.1yrsUS$2.06m0.051% $4.1m
Bert Frost
Senior Vice President of Sales3.8yrsUS$2.37m0.047% $3.7m
Tom Grooms
Chief Information Officer & VP4yrsno datano data
Martin Jarosick
Vice President of Investor Relations3.1yrsno datano data
Michael McGrane
Chief Compliance Officer4.1yrsno datano data
Rosemary O'Brien
Vice President of Public Affairs36.1yrsno data0.018% $1.4m
Susan Menzel
Senior Vice President of Human Resources2.3yrsno data0.013% $1.1m
Ashraf Malik
Senior Vice President of Manufacturing & Distribution0.4yrsno data0.011% $842.8k

3.9yrs

Average Tenure

54yo

Average Age

Experienced Management: CF's management team is considered experienced (3.9 years average tenure).


Board Members

NamePositionTenureCompensationOwnership
W. Will
President6.1yrsUS$7.76m0.24% $19.0m
John Johnson
Independent Director14.5yrsUS$234.33k0.038% $3.1m
John Eaves
Independent Director2.6yrsUS$234.17k0.0048% $382.1k
Robert Arzbaecher
Independent Director14.5yrsUS$248.08k0.042% $3.4m
Stephen Hagge
Independent Director9.7yrsUS$248.08k0.018% $1.5m
Stephen Furbacher
Independent Chairman & Lead Independent Director5.8yrsUS$412.49k0.023% $1.8m
William Davisson
Independent Director14.5yrsUS$234.33k0.019% $1.5m
Michael Toelle
Independent Director2.6yrsUS$234.17k0.0048% $382.1k
Theresa Wagler
Independent Director5.3yrsUS$253.08k0.0090% $718.6k
Anne Noonan
Independent Director4.7yrsUS$234.33k0.0092% $740.2k

5.9yrs

Average Tenure

60yo

Average Age

Experienced Board: CF's board of directors are considered experienced (5.9 years average tenure).


Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?


Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.


Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.


Top Shareholders

Company Information

CF Industries Holdings, Inc.'s company bio, employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


Key Information

  • Name: CF Industries Holdings, Inc.
  • Ticker: CF
  • Exchange: NYSE
  • Founded: 1946
  • Industry: Fertilizers and Agricultural Chemicals
  • Sector: Materials
  • Market Cap: US$8.011b
  • Shares outstanding: 216.17m
  • Website: https://www.cfindustries.com

Number of Employees


Location

  • CF Industries Holdings, Inc.
  • 4 Parkway North
  • Suite 400
  • Deerfield
  • Illinois
  • 60015
  • United States

Listings

TickerExchangePrimary SecuritySecurity TypeCountryCurrencyListed on
CFNYSE (New York Stock Exchange)YesCommon StockUSUSDAug 2005
C4FDB (Deutsche Boerse AG)YesCommon StockDEEURAug 2005
0HQULSE (London Stock Exchange)YesCommon StockGBUSDAug 2005
C4FBRSE (Berne Stock Exchange)YesCommon StockCHCHFAug 2005
C1FI34BOVESPA (Bolsa de Valores de Sao Paulo)BDR EACH REPR 1 COMBRBRLDec 2019

Biography

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. manufactures and distributes nitrogen fertilizers and other nitrogen products worldwide. Its principal nitrogen fertilizer products include anhydrous ammonia, granular urea, urea ammonium nitrate solution, and ammonium nitrate. The company also offers diesel exhaust fluid, urea liquor, nitric acid, and aqua ammonia products, as well as compound fertilizer products with nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium. It primarily serves cooperatives, independent fertilizer distributors, traders, wholesalers, farmers, and industrial users. The company was founded in 1946 and is headquartered in Deerfield, Illinois. 


Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2020/02/28 00:45
End of Day Share Price2020/02/27 00:00
Earnings2019/12/31
Annual Earnings2019/12/31


Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.