ASIX Stock Overview
AdvanSix Inc. manufactures and sells polymer resins in the United States and internationally.
Price History & Performance
|Historical stock prices|
|Current Share Price||US$31.94|
|52 Week High||US$57.10|
|52 Week Low||US$30.86|
|1 Month Change||-17.42%|
|3 Month Change||-8.46%|
|1 Year Change||-18.10%|
|3 Year Change||23.46%|
|5 Year Change||-19.65%|
|Change since IPO||91.95%|
Recent News & Updates
AdvanSix: No Longer Advancing
Summary Shares of AdvanSix have seen a painful reversal in recent months. This comes despite very strong operating momentum. I like this combination, even as a substantial negative earnings revision seems in the works, appearing to be only a matter of time. In the spring I noted that AdvanSix (ASIX) was advancing along after a very strong 2021, driven by a combination of higher volumes, pass-through pricing and market pricing. The increase in earnings power and elimination of debt overhang created a compelling situation, as the company guided for a very strong 2022, ahead of the Ukraine war. Some Background AdvanSix was spun off from its former parent Honeywell (HON) all the way back in 2016. The company produces ammonium sulfates, nylon and chemical intermediates, typically seen as commodity products with associated pricing, although that some of the volatile component is hedged by strong correlation between input and energy prices. That is a bit too simplistic as input prices are largely tied to energy prices, while demand implications impact market pricing for the products as well. At the time of the spin-off, AdvanSix was posting sales of around $1.5 billion on which it posted EBITDA of $200 million and net earnings around half that number, equal to $3 per share, with shares trading around the $40 mark at the time. Poor cash flow conversion, the result of the need to upgrade facilities, and historically strong margins raised some questions as a 13 times earnings multiple optically looked compelling. Shares fell to the teens in early 2020, even ahead of the pandemic, as sales, earnings and cash flows were lagging, and with all metrics under pressure, relative leverage ratios were on the increase as well. Years of stagnation and increased focus on ESG made that I believed that the company was facing an uphill battle, which prevented me from taking a position. The $10 stock around the time of the pandemic rallied to $47 in spring 2022 as the company has seen incredible operating performance in 2021. Full year sales rose to $1.68 billion on which EBITDA of $255 million and earnings of $140 million were reported, for earnings of $4.81 per share. It must be said that earnings power only totaled $0.80 per share in the last quarter of the year. With earnings power trending between $3 and $5 per share, and net debt down to just $120 million, the future arguably looks a lot better. Debt reduction is driven by strong earnings power and the fact that the largest investment cycle to upgrade facilities seems to be a thing of the past by now with capital spending seen around a hundred million a year now. The strong performance even triggered the company into announcing a $100 million deal for US Amines. The question is how things would evolve in 2022. The war triggered great demand for ammonium sulfate with food supply threatened, yet higher energy prices would hurt the business as well. Being furthermore mindful of softer operating momentum, and judging 2021 earnings to be historically strong, I was not happy to join the ride at $47 in March, even as the outlook was still pretty decent. A Pullback After a brief run higher to $57 in the same month of March, shares are now back to $33 as the market and investors have feared and picked up the cyclical element of the business, as a net $14 drop from March marks for a serious pullback. First quarter sales rose 27%, entirely driven by pricing with volumes down 4%. The company posted a strong $103 million EBITDA number on $479 million in sales, as net earnings of $63 million came in at $2.15 per share. Second quarter sales growth accelerated to 33% as revenues came in at $584 million with GAAP earnings advancing further to $2.23 per share, as earnings still trend at a very impressive $8-$9 per share! Net debt fell further to $130 million despite the US Amine deal, with net debt just surpassing the quarterly EBITDA being generated.
Why AdvanSix Inc. (NYSE:ASIX) Could Be Worth Watching
AdvanSix Inc. ( NYSE:ASIX ), is not the largest company out there, but it received a lot of attention from a...
|ASIX||US Chemicals||US Market|
Return vs Industry: ASIX underperformed the US Chemicals industry which returned -13.3% over the past year.
Return vs Market: ASIX exceeded the US Market which returned -21.6% over the past year.
|ASIX Average Weekly Movement||5.5%|
|Chemicals Industry Average Movement||6.3%|
|Market Average Movement||6.9%|
|10% most volatile stocks in US Market||15.9%|
|10% least volatile stocks in US Market||2.8%|
Stable Share Price: ASIX is not significantly more volatile than the rest of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 6% a week.
Volatility Over Time: ASIX's weekly volatility (6%) has been stable over the past year.
About the Company
AdvanSix Inc. manufactures and sells polymer resins in the United States and internationally. It offers Nylon 6, a polymer resin, which is a synthetic material used to produce fibers, filaments, engineered plastics and films. The company also provides caprolactam to manufacture polymer resins; ammonium sulfate fertilizers to distributors, farm cooperatives, and retailers; and acetone that are used in the production of adhesives, paints, coatings, solvents, herbicides, and engineered plastic resins, as well as other intermediate chemicals, including phenol, alpha-methyl styrene, cyclohexanone, methyl ethyl ketoxime, acetaldehyde oxime, 2-pentanone oxime, cyclohexanol, sulfuric acid, ammonia, and carbon dioxide.
AdvanSix Fundamentals Summary
|ASIX fundamental statistics|
Is ASIX overvalued?See Fair Value and valuation analysis
Earnings & Revenue
|ASIX income statement (TTM)|
|Cost of Revenue||US$1.59b|
Last Reported Earnings
Jun 30, 2022
Next Earnings Date
|Earnings per share (EPS)||6.99|
|Net Profit Margin||10.13%|
How did ASIX perform over the long term?See historical performance and comparison
1.8%Current Dividend Yield
Is ASIX undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?
Valuation Score 6/6
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Key Valuation Metric
Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ASIX?
Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.
|What is ASIX's n/a Ratio?|
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers
How does ASIX's PE Ratio compare to its peers?
|ASIX PE Ratio vs Peers|
|Company||PE||Estimated Growth||Market Cap|
OEC Orion Engineered Carbons
WLKP Westlake Chemical Partners
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: ASIX is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (4.6x) compared to the peer average (10x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry
How does ASIX's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Chemicals Industry?
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: ASIX is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (4.6x) compared to the US Chemicals industry average (14.3x)
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio
What is ASIX's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
|Current PE Ratio||4.6x|
|Fair PE Ratio||13.5x|
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: ASIX is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (4.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.5x).
Share Price vs Fair Value
What is the Fair Price of ASIX when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.
Below Fair Value: ASIX ($31.94) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($130.24)
Significantly Below Fair Value: ASIX is trading below fair value by more than 20%.
Analyst Price Targets
What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?
Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.
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How is AdvanSix forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 3 analysts?
Future Growth Score1/6
Future Growth Score 1/6
Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Forecasted annual earnings growth
Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts
Analyst Future Growth Forecasts
Earnings vs Savings Rate: ASIX's forecast earnings growth (7% per year) is above the savings rate (1.9%).
Earnings vs Market: ASIX's earnings (7% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the US market (14.7% per year).
High Growth Earnings: ASIX's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.
Revenue vs Market: ASIX's revenue is expected to decline over the next 3 years (-2.4% per year).
High Growth Revenue: ASIX's revenue is forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-2.4% per year).
Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts
Future Return on Equity
Future ROE: Insufficient data to determine if ASIX's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time
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How has AdvanSix performed over the past 5 years?
Past Performance Score6/6
Past Performance Score 6/6
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings vs Industry
Historical annual earnings growth
Earnings and Revenue History
Quality Earnings: ASIX has high quality earnings.
Growing Profit Margin: ASIX's current net profit margins (10.1%) are higher than last year (6.8%).
Past Earnings Growth Analysis
Earnings Trend: ASIX's earnings have grown by 10.7% per year over the past 5 years.
Accelerating Growth: ASIX's earnings growth over the past year (99.1%) exceeds its 5-year average (10.7% per year).
Earnings vs Industry: ASIX earnings growth over the past year (99.1%) exceeded the Chemicals industry 21.1%.
Return on Equity
High ROE: ASIX's Return on Equity (27.2%) is considered high.
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How is AdvanSix's financial position?
Financial Health Score6/6
Financial Health Score 6/6
Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Financial Position Analysis
Short Term Liabilities: ASIX's short term assets ($435.9M) exceed its short term liabilities ($356.3M).
Long Term Liabilities: ASIX's short term assets ($435.9M) exceed its long term liabilities ($407.7M).
Debt to Equity History and Analysis
Debt Level: ASIX's net debt to equity ratio (18%) is considered satisfactory.
Reducing Debt: ASIX's debt to equity ratio has reduced from 97.3% to 20.4% over the past 5 years.
Debt Coverage: ASIX's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (174%).
Interest Coverage: ASIX's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (76.1x coverage).
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What is AdvanSix current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?
Dividend Score 3/6
Cash Flow Coverage
Current Dividend Yield
Dividend Yield vs Market
Notable Dividend: ASIX's dividend (1.82%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the US market (1.62%).
High Dividend: ASIX's dividend (1.82%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the US market (4.45%).
Stability and Growth of Payments
Stable Dividend: Too early to tell whether ASIX's dividend payments have been stable as they only just started paying a dividend.
Growing Dividend: Too early to tell if ASIX's dividend payments are increasing as they only just started paying a dividend.
Earnings Payout to Shareholders
Earnings Coverage: With its low payout ratio (7.5%), ASIX's dividend payments are thoroughly covered by earnings.
Cash Payout to Shareholders
Cash Flow Coverage: With its low cash payout ratio (8.8%), ASIX's dividend payments are thoroughly covered by cash flows.
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How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?
Average management tenure
Erin Kane (45 yo)
Ms. Erin N. Kane has been Independent Director of The Chemours Company since June 18, 2019. She serves as Director of AIChE. Ms. Kane has been the Director, President and Chief Executive Officer of AdvanSi...
CEO Compensation Analysis
Compensation vs Market: Erin's total compensation ($USD5.75M) is above average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD4.08M).
Compensation vs Earnings: Erin's compensation has increased by more than 20% in the past year.
Experienced Management: ASIX's management team is seasoned and experienced (5.9 years average tenure).
Experienced Board: ASIX's board of directors are considered experienced (5.9 years average tenure).
Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?
Insider Trading Volume
Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.
Recent Insider Transactions
|24 Feb 22||BuyUS$24,762||Michael Marberry||Individual||713||US$34.73|
Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.
|Ownership||Name||Shares||Current Value||Change %||Portfolio %|
AdvanSix Inc.'s employee growth, exchange listings and data sources
- Name: AdvanSix Inc.
- Ticker: ASIX
- Exchange: NYSE
- Founded: 2016
- Industry: Commodity Chemicals
- Sector: Materials
- Implied Market Cap: US$894.548m
- Shares outstanding: 28.01m
- Website: https://www.advansix.com
Number of Employees
- AdvanSix Inc.
- 300 Kimball Drive
- Suite 101
- New Jersey
- United States
|Ticker||Exchange||Primary Security||Security Type||Country||Currency||Listed on|
|ASIX||NYSE (New York Stock Exchange)||Yes||Common Stock||US||USD||Sep 2016|
|960||DB (Deutsche Boerse AG)||Yes||Common Stock||DE||EUR||Sep 2016|
|ASIX *||BMV (Bolsa Mexicana de Valores)||Yes||Common Stock||MX||MXN||Sep 2016|
Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
|Data||Last Updated (UTC time)|
|Company Analysis||2022/09/23 00:00|
|End of Day Share Price||2022/09/23 00:00|
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.